The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Rather than visit early primary states like Cotton, Haley, and Noem, Ted Cruz's 2024 strategy is to promote Senate hearings he attends as if they were campaign events. 

https://twitter.com/donie/status/1321255065190105089

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/10/24/trump-sons-hint-at-future-runs-as-presidents-polling-looks-dire/#3fa48a0f0b0f

Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son who helps run the Trump Organization as an executive vice president and has been one of his father’s most active surrogates this year, posted a photo of a “Don Jr. 2024” flag to instagram.

Donald Trump Jr. wrote that it will “make liberal heads explode” and that “to whomever made [the sign] thanks for the compliment… but let’s get through 2020 with a big win first.”

He was asked about this yesterday:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-jr-speculation-2024-presidential-run

Trump Jr. addressed the photo during an appearance on "Fox & Friends" Tuesday, telling host Steve Doocy that while he was flattered by the suggestion, his focus remains on "getting another four more years for my father.

"It's obviously a compliment when someone makes a 40-foot sign," the first son said. "That was like a vinyl sign, they went out of their way and really printed up a real sign. This wasn’t a crayon deal, so it was a great compliment.

"But," he continued, "my only focus is really, you know, this next week, getting another four more years for my father, the policies that he’s initiated."

[Mr. Morden]

Pence was in South Carolina yesterday:

https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/27/mike-pence-campaigns-greenville-sc-one-week-before-election-day/6051743002/

Ostensibly, this was a trip meant to boost Graham.  Yet I still think it's weird that the VP on a ticket that's losing in the polls would take the time to campaign in a state that isn't expected to be very competitive in the presidential race, just a week before the election.  Though of course, SC is also an early primary state for 2024, so....

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/28/aoc-dont-know-house-forever-433215

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez suggested in a new interview that her public service ambitions may carry her beyond the House of Representatives, adding to speculation that the progressive superstar could seek higher office.

“I don’t know if I’m really going to be staying in the House forever, or if I do stay in the House, what that would look like,” Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) told Vanity Fair in an interview for the magazine’s December cover story. “I don’t see myself really staying where I’m at for the rest of my life.”
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Ocasio-Cortez is also viewed as one of the likeliest inheritors of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ progressive coalition if she were to run for president. The congresswoman, who endorsed Sanders in the 2020 White House race, turned 31 earlier this month and would meet the constitutional presidential age requirement of 35 by November 2024.

[Mr. Morden]

Sasse made two trips to Iowa last week: One trip to make a speech at the University of Iowa, and another to campaign for Ernst:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/2024-gop-presidential-contenders-sasse-haley-cotton/index.html

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio and Cotton don't deny their interest to CNN, Hawley says a run's not in the cards for him.

Here are the answers given by everyone they asked in that story:

Rubio:

"I ran for president once before, so clearly I'm not going to tell someone I'm not interested in running for president -- I already ran for it once," Rubio told CNN when asked if a 2024 bid was on his mind.

"But that's a decision I'll have to make at the appropriate time given what the world looks like, what my life looks like, my service here and what work remains to be done," Rubio, who struggled to gain traction in the 2016 primary, said in the Capitol.

Cotton:

Asked if those visits to early primary states were part of a campaign to prepare for 2024, Cotton contended he was trying to help Republicans in key House and Senate races. "I'm trying to hold on to the Senate and the House," he told CNN, while ignoring a question about his potential interest in running for the White House.

Cruz:

Cruz wouldn't entertain questions about his 2024 ambitions.

"Let's get through Election Day this year first," he said outside the Capitol.

Hawley:

Hawley, a 40-year-old former Missouri attorney general, also threw cold water on a possible 2024 run, telling CNN: "I'm not" considering a White House bid in four years.

Asked if a run were in the cards, Hawley said flatly: "It's not."

Tim Scott:

But South Carolina's junior Republican senator said "not at all" when asked if he was thinking about a 2024 run. "The best thing for me to plan for is reelection," referring to his 2022 bid to keep his seat.

"I know that people start planning for a run for the White House around the eighth grade, or something like that, I hear," Scott said. "I'm going to move to a ministry when this is all said and done. I want to keep my integrity."

[Mr. Morden]

Vermont Governor Phil Scott has told reporters he has voted for Joe Biden.

I don't think he's given any indication that he's going to run for president, so I don't think this is that relevant for 2024?

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/ShonaMurray_/status/1324377573304995843

CNN has confirmed WH Advisors have begun to discuss a 2024 campaign with the President.

Yep, here's the report that it's not just Mulvaney, but that several Trump aides have talked about it with Trump himself:

https://twitter.com/brooklynmutt/status/1324412011107831810

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like last Sunday, Rick Scott was asked about 2024, and he gave a non-denial “I’m not focused on it”-type answer:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/379422-rick-scott-2024-not-focused

“No, and by the way, think about it,” Scott said, before recalibrating to message. “I’m going to work my tail off to get President Trump elected.”

“That’s what everybody ought to be focused on. Everybody ought to be focused on doing the jobs that they have. My job is a U.S. Senator, representing the state of Florida the best I can.”

“I’m not focused on it,” Scott said. “I like my job as U.S. Senator and that’s what I’m going to focus on.”

[Mr. Morden]

Larry Hogan asked if he’s thinking about running for president in 2024, and he gives a non-denial:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/hogan-on-possible-2024-run-lets-get-beyond-the-2020-race-first/vi-BB1aOjAR

“I think we’ve got a long time before we start talking about that.”

[Mr. Morden]

Rick Scott is preparing to run for chair of the NRSC, while Doug Ducey is likely to take over the RGA, but perches from which potential future national candidates can accumulate some political chits:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/republicans-trump-power-vacuum-435229

Also:

While Donald Trump Jr. himself is frequently mentioned as a 2024 candidate, those close to him say he’s more interested in leveraging his influence to help like-minded conservatives. He's expected to campaign extensively for candidates in the 2022 midterms.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.axios.com/trump-2024-presidential-run-4add0d86-02be-41f9-b2fd-5aaca96ce6ce.html

President Trump has already told advisers he's thinking about running for president again in 2024, two sources familiar with the conversations tell Axios.

Why it matters: This is the clearest indication yet that Trump understands he has lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden — even as the president continues to falsely insist that he is the true winner, that there has been election fraud and that his team will fight to the end in the courts.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1326026892193968129

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1326142183020367872

[Mr. Morden]

Trump has created a new PAC which could be used as a vehicle for 2024 politicking:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-fundraising-save-america-pac-contesting-election-results/story?id=74128659

In an apparent effort to retain future influence over the Republican Party, President Donald Trump has started fundraising through his re-election campaign for a new "Save America" PAC while still battling the 2020 election results in court.
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Save America is set up as a "leadership PAC," which can be established by former and current members of Congress as well as by other prominent political figures, often with the purpose of advancing their political influence, according to its FEC filing.

Similar to regular political action committees, leadership PACs can only accept up to $5,000 per donor, far less than the upward of $800,000 donation that the Trump campaign and the Republican Party's high-dollar joint fundraising committee Trump Victory could raise. But the new PAC can be used to fund fellow Republicans in Congress, a vehicle for Trump to continue to exert his reach over the Republican Party.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump has created a new PAC which could be used as a vehicle for 2024 politicking:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-fundraising-save-america-pac-contesting-election-results/story?id=74128659

In an apparent effort to retain future influence over the Republican Party, President Donald Trump has started fundraising through his re-election campaign for a new "Save America" PAC while still battling the 2020 election results in court.
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.
.
Save America is set up as a "leadership PAC," which can be established by former and current members of Congress as well as by other prominent political figures, often with the purpose of advancing their political influence, according to its FEC filing.

Similar to regular political action committees, leadership PACs can only accept up to $5,000 per donor, far less than the upward of $800,000 donation that the Trump campaign and the Republican Party's high-dollar joint fundraising committee Trump Victory could raise. But the new PAC can be used to fund fellow Republicans in Congress, a vehicle for Trump to continue to exert his reach over the Republican Party.

it seems like this is just for 2020 no?

I mean, the 2020 election already happened, so do you mean to raise $ for legal fees?  I assume he could just do that with his existing campaign $?  I'm no expert on this, but from the text above, it sounds like a leadership PAC has stricter fundraising limits than a regular PAC *but* allows him to donate $ to other candidates.  But other candidates don't need more $ until 2022 or 2024, so I assume that this is for that.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1326701255431958528

[Mr. Morden]

Significant Republican hopefuls don't run if Trump does for fear of pissing him off:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-election-results-strategy/2020/11/11/a32e2cba-244a-11eb-952e-0c475972cfc0_story.html

Even the possibility of a future Trump run would help keep him relevant - and in the media spotlight - and effectively freeze the GOP primary field. Many of the party's rising stars and buzzed-about 2024 hopefuls - including Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Pence - are unlikely to run if Trump is planning another campaign, Trump allies said.

Maybe not, but note the source.

Anyway, it all depends on how popular Trump is with GOP primary voters in 3 years.  If the polls say that he'd beat them all handily, then they won't run.  If the polls don't say that, then they will run.

[Mr. Morden]

On the topic of Trump clearing the field though, Rubio did publicly say this:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rubio-says-trump-would-again-be-frontrunner-in-2024

"If he runs in 2024, he'll certainly be the front-runner and will probably be the nominee," Rubio told congressional pool reporters Tuesday. "But again I'm still being presumptuous here, we're not even through with 2020.”

But I'm not sure we'd expect him to publicly say differently now, while Trump is still president.  This doesn't necessarily reflect his true feelings, nor is he binding himself to opting out if Trump runs.

Also, Rubio said this when asked about his own 2024 plans:

"We're not even through with 2020, there's a lot of other decisions to be made, so I haven't even -- honestly guys, no one can even start thinking about things like that until some period of time has elapsed," said Rubio, who will soon campaign in Georgia for the two senate run-offs elections.

[Mr. Morden]

More from Rubio here:

https://www.axios.com/rubio-gop-reset-trump-872340a7-4c75-4c2b-9261-9612c590ee14.html

Axios says that in their interview with him, he said that "he is leaving the door open for a 2024 presidential run", though they don't offer a direct quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Pence's next move:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/11/us/politics/mike-pence-trump.html

In reality, Mr. Pence’s allies expect him to return to Indiana and make a living giving paid speeches and potentially writing a book. It will be the first time in a long time that Mr. Pence will live as a private citizen — he moved from the governor’s mansion in Indiana to temporary housing in Washington during the presidential transition four years ago to the Naval Observatory. He currently does not own a house.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/SovernNation/status/1327015013714784256

[Mr. Morden]

Greg Abbott not ruling out a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.amarillopioneer.com/blog/2020/11/12/abbott-not-ruling-out-2024-presidential-bid

In an interview on KSKY-AM in Dallas on Thursday, host Mark Davis asked Abbott if he is considering a bid for president in 2024. Abbott responded by not ruling out such a bid, saying, “we’ll see what happens.”

"One thing that you know about me, I take one step at a time," Abbott said.

[Mr. Morden]

Candace Owens is probably joking here, but she floats the possibility of running for president in 2024:

https://twitter.com/RealCandaceO/status/1327033618737352705

[Mr. Morden]

Tom Cotton was on Fox News Channel on Sunday, and at about the 5:30 mark of this video, he's asked if he's thinking about a 2024 presidential bid:

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6209659147001#sp=show-clips

He's initially evasive.  Then when asked the question again, he says:

“I’d like to put 2020 on the books, before we move on to the next election."

[Mr. Morden]

This AP story mentions Pence's pre-election decision timeline (which now might be derailed by Trump's own continued ambitions):

https://apnews.com/article/trump-loss-pence-political-future-0873e6ba264e37748d9858e805e4ea0e

Before the election, Pence aides had discussed a plan to build a political apparatus for the vice president should he decide to run in 2024. They envisioned him holding fundraisers, speaking at party dinners and supporting 2022 candidates. Then, around the 2022 election, he would decide whether to move forward.

Pence, his allies contend, has time to take a wait-and-see approach because he’s already ahead of others in what is expected to be a crowded Republican field. Pence, they note, already has a political action committee, the Great America Committee, as well as a deep fundraising network and close friends who include many of the nation’s governors.

“I think he’s got the blessing of time right now where he can go ahead and put together a small apparatus for a potential run,” said Jon Thompson, who served as Pence’s spokesman on the campaign and previously worked for the Republican Governors Association. “So that gives him some time to really see what Trump and others do.”