Are The Democrats Toast in 2018 after Kavanaugh?

[IceSpear]

As toast as the GOP were after Access Hollywood.

Will the Dems get a Comey Mueller letter?

[IceSpear]

The goalposts of what constitutes a “blue wave” have shifted an astonishing amount. For me, a good night for Democrats is 30-40 in the House and even or better in the Senate.

I'd even be happy with 30-40 in the House and an R+1 in the Senate at this point.

[IceSpear]

Pretty sure if Republicans are only leading by single digits in North Dakota and Tennesse they're in for a bad night.

Don't be too optimistic now. 538 now gives Dems only a 74% chance of gaining the house, which is less than their prediction for Clinton winning in 2016. If anything I think this sort of hopeless optimism is what keeps dooming the Dems

I mean, he does have a point. The problem is that expectations for Dems have gotten ridiculously high over the past few months, particularly on this forum. If you told us two years ago that the Tennessee Senate race could be a single digit race, we'd all be expecting a great result overall for Democrats.

[IceSpear]

At this point, Dems will definitely lose 4-5 senate seats. The house will break even at best.

Well, I'll take this prediction very seriously considering your impeccable blemish free track record.

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

Gillespie by under half a point.

Normally I'd say Polis, but boring white women are doing really well this year, so Kennedy by 2 points.

Kucinich by 1 point.

Scott by 10-12.

55-44 Moore

Stabenow will win by 3 points.

Balderson by 8 now.

[IceSpear]

Rofl. How has this dude managed to get everything so so wrong?

The funny part is that his predictions are actually good in a sense...you can get a ballpark estimate of the final result by adding roughly 10 points to the Democrats.

If the House was "break even at best", I assume that would make the generic ballot something like R+1. So according to my formula, the end result will be D+9. Congrats Speaker Pelosi!