Who will win the Virginia Governor race?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Who will win?

My prediction: Northam takes the governors mansion by 4%. Democrats have the edge in Virginia. Gillespie can make it close but I don't think it will be enough for him to win. He's working against an anti-Trump tide, increasingly liberal cities, and the D.C. suburbs.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Who will win?

My prediction: Northam takes the governors mansion by 4%. Democrats have the edge in Virginia. Gillespie can make it close but I don't think it will be enough for him to win.

Basically this.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Northam wins with a margin between 6% and 9.5%, median range of 7 and 8.5%.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm still confidant that Northam will win the end. By 4-5 points.

[JMT]

Heading into the election, I have a bad feeling about Northam's chances. I think Gillespie wins 48% to Northam's 47%

[Cactus Jack]

Northam. He's a hot mess of a candidate, but the environment and Virginia's lean will probably propel him over the line.

[Hoosier_Nick]

I'm still thinking it'll fall somewhere between Northam +0%-4%.

[History505]

Tilt Northam, but it is really a close race.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Narrow (somewhere between 0.1 and 2 points) win for Gillespie

Bonus prediction: Subsequent Atlas meltdown will last around 300 posts, MoE of + 1000 posts / - 2 posts

[mvd10]

Northam wins by 2 or so. It will be closer than expected but the Dems should pull it. I'd be interested in the crosstabs though.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Narrow (somewhere between 0.1 and 2 points) win for Gillespie

Bonus prediction: Subsequent Atlas meltdown will last around 300 posts, MoE of + 1000 posts / - 2 posts

please remember to wipe your ass if Northam wins

Alrighty, right after you apologize for trolling every VA gov post for the past week dear

[mencken]

Northam wins the election, although Gillespie wins the non-felon vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

DDHQ guy:

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[Pragmatic Conservative]

Northram wins by a rather comfortable 4% margin as Democrats hold both AG and LG by similar margins and we get a bunch of predictions of a big blue wave in 2018 immediately proceeding the election. At this point Republicans only hope appears the polls are off by like they were in 13 or 14, which is a rather risky proposition to get ones hopes up on.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Gov. Gillespie by about 1-2%. He is more authentic IMO. But they are both great competitors.

[mgop]

gillespie easily, especialy now with clear president support. it will be fun tomorrow to read this pathetic forum, mmm liberal tears yummy

[The Govanah Jake]

I do believe in the end it will be closer then some suggest here and only give Northam a .5-2.5% victory. I would categorize the race right now as a true tossup or perhaps slight Northam. I expect Gillespie to wallop Northam in the Rural regions and Appalachia while holding the ground among the rest of the Republican base in the center regions and the Tidewater area.

The Richmond suburbs are a big battleground as are the Washington suburbs and i think, at least in the former's case will see some gains for Gillespie while losing others. Gillespie will also hold Virginia Beach by a healthy margin of say 4-7% and i predict will do a little bit better in central regions more democratic leaning county's with the exception of Charlottesville which could see a backlash towards Northam off of Black turnout. Now the key to this race is the Washington suburbs. I think this will decide the race for Northam. Due to increased black turnout along with healthy margins among other minority groups along with the traditionally voting white population, Northam will probably edge it out here and hold Prince Williams, Fairfax, and Loudoun for the Democrats.



Ralph Northam: 48.26%
Ed Gillespie: 47.67%
Cliff Hydra: 3.19%

[Keep cool-idge]

I do believe in the end it will be closer then some suggest here and only give Northam a .5-2.5% victory. I would categorize the race right now as a true tossup or perhaps slight Northam. I expect Gillespie to wallop Northam in the Rural regions and Appalachia while holding the ground among the rest of the Republican base in the center regions and the Tidewater area.

The Richmond suburbs are a big battleground as are the Washington suburbs and i think, at least in the former's case will see some gains for Gillespie while losing others. Gillespie will also hold Virginia Beach by a healthy margin of say 4-7% and i predict will do a little bit better in central regions more democratic leaning county's with the exception of Charlottesville which could see a backlash towards Northam off of Black turnout. Now the key to this race is the Washington suburbs. I think this will decide the race for Northam. Due to increased black turnout along with healthy margins among other minority groups along with the traditionally voting white population, Northam will probably edge it out here and hold Prince Williams, Fairfax, and Loudoun for the Democrats.



Ralph Northam: 48.26%
Ed Gillespie: 47.67%
Cliff Hydra: 3.19%

Why would Gillespie lose chesterfield county?

[Horus]

Gillespie by under half a point.

[The Govanah Jake]

I do believe in the end it will be closer then some suggest here and only give Northam a .5-2.5% victory. I would categorize the race right now as a true tossup or perhaps slight Northam. I expect Gillespie to wallop Northam in the Rural regions and Appalachia while holding the ground among the rest of the Republican base in the center regions and the Tidewater area.

The Richmond suburbs are a big battleground as are the Washington suburbs and i think, at least in the former's case will see some gains for Gillespie while losing others. Gillespie will also hold Virginia Beach by a healthy margin of say 4-7% and i predict will do a little bit better in central regions more democratic leaning county's with the exception of Charlottesville which could see a backlash towards Northam off of Black turnout. Now the key to this race is the Washington suburbs. I think this will decide the race for Northam. Due to increased black turnout along with healthy margins among other minority groups along with the traditionally voting white population, Northam will probably edge it out here and hold Prince Williams, Fairfax, and Loudoun for the Democrats.



Ralph Northam: 48.26%
Ed Gillespie: 47.67%
Cliff Hydra: 3.19%

Why would Gillespie lose chesterfield county?

That was a mistake. I thought i colored it in. Too lazy to edit it, oh well.

Also i would probably flip Loudoun on the map to Gillespie after reviewing it some more and do to the less then 1% margin along with Northampton.

[The Govanah Jake]

^Northam is from the Eastern Shore. Are you not expecting any hometown effect?

Eh not really. I don't expect Northam to do any better in any areas that are not suburban or urban or a significant minority population and that includes Tidewater. Maybe a 1-5% bump in some county's but besides that not really

[Panhandle Progressive]

Gov. Gillespie by about 1-2%. He is more authentic IMO. But they are both great competitors.

Tonight is the last time these two words (Gov & Gillespie) will be used together.

[Skill and Chance]

^Northam is from the Eastern Shore. Are you not expecting any hometown effect?

The southern of the 2 Eastern Shore counties has been consistently left of the state, even in 2016.   There's no way Northam, being from the Eastern Shore, could win without it.

[mencken]

Even the best case scenario for Gillespie (Trump's margins in the country, repeating his 2014 margins in the urban areas) only gets him a ~25,000 vote win; he basically has to pull an inside straight to win by a shenanigans-proof margin.

[Devils30]

Chesterfield only goes for Northam if he wins the state by 5-6 at minimum.