🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Johnson]

Are CSU/FW in Bavaria and CDU/Greens in Hesse still the most likely coalitions, or is it possible we see a change in one of these states?

Yes, CDU/FW is pretty much a given.

In Hesse, CDU/Greens is still most likely to be continued, though CDU/SPD is also an option. Both Greens and SPD expressed readiness for serious talks. However, Rhein and the CDU can chose between the two who don't have a lot of leverage in this situation.

[rob in cal]

Ecological Democrats surpass Die linke in Bavaria and for every 4 SPD voters there’s about one ODP voter.

[Logical]

You can still spot the more Protestant parts of Bavaria and Hesse in SPD's maps.

[Yeahsayyeah]

LINKE Bundestag member Thomas Lutze has officially left the LINKE and its parliamentary group and joined the SPD. I would think, it has much to do with the intra-party infighting in the Saarland state party. Connected to this there have been several allegations of fraud etc. over the years. Btw, the SPD of the Saarland did not want him, so he joined the Berlin state party.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

LINKE Bundestag member Thomas Lutze has officially left the LINKE and its parliamentary group and joined the SPD. I would think, it has much to do with the intra-party infighting in the Saarland state party. Connected to this there have been several allegations of fraud etc. over the years. Btw, the SPD of the Saarland did not want him, so he joined the Berlin state party.

Wow, he's been a member of the Bundestag for Die Linke since 2009. This is not a decision he took lightly!

Apparently his defections are because he sees Linke as poorly positioned, unable to provide an answer for "socially undesirable developments", and also he wanted to wait for the state elections to pass so that he would not be accused of influencing voting but also wanted to get ahead of the coming party split so that he was not the one who dragged Linke under the 37 seat mark.

I wonder if we will see more of this should Wagenknecht's party come through....

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Strongest vs. second strongest parties in German state elections, courtesy of Katapult magazine:

[President Johnson]

LINKE Bundestag member Thomas Lutze has officially left the LINKE and its parliamentary group and joined the SPD. I would think, it has much to do with the intra-party infighting in the Saarland state party. Connected to this there have been several allegations of fraud etc. over the years. Btw, the SPD of the Saarland did not want him, so he joined the Berlin state party.

Hopefully Dietmar Bartsch is next. He's often a voice for reason and would fit into the SPD's left wing. The government has now 417 seats and SPD 207, ten more than the Union.

[Storr]

Strongest vs. second strongest parties in German state elections, courtesy of Katapult magazine:

Of course Saxony stands out. With it having the highest AfD percentage, being 4 percentage points greater than the next closest state.

[JimJamUK]

LINKE Bundestag member Thomas Lutze has officially left the LINKE and its parliamentary group and joined the SPD. I would think, it has much to do with the intra-party infighting in the Saarland state party. Connected to this there have been several allegations of fraud etc. over the years. Btw, the SPD of the Saarland did not want him, so he joined the Berlin state party.

Hopefully Dietmar Bartsch is next. He's often a voice for reason and would fit into the SPD's left wing. The government has now 417 seats and SPD 207, ten more than the Union.

What’s the expected ideology of a post-Wagenknecht Linke? Are the moderates potentially leaving because they regard it as too extreme or because it’s a sinking ship?

[President Johnson]

LINKE Bundestag member Thomas Lutze has officially left the LINKE and its parliamentary group and joined the SPD. I would think, it has much to do with the intra-party infighting in the Saarland state party. Connected to this there have been several allegations of fraud etc. over the years. Btw, the SPD of the Saarland did not want him, so he joined the Berlin state party.

Hopefully Dietmar Bartsch is next. He's often a voice for reason and would fit into the SPD's left wing. The government has now 417 seats and SPD 207, ten more than the Union.

What’s the expected ideology of a post-Wagenknecht Linke? Are the moderates potentially leaving because they regard it as too extreme or because it’s a sinking ship?

Democratic socialism, I guess, though I think the party will run out of existence. I'm skeptical though a Wagenknecht party would actually be able to emerge as a serious force. They lack prominent faces besides her and putting together a functioning party apparatus isn't that easy.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

What’s the expected ideology of a post-Wagenknecht Linke? Are the moderates potentially leaving because they regard it as too extreme or because it’s a sinking ship?

Democratic socialism, I guess, though I think the party will run out of existence. I'm skeptical though a Wagenknecht party would actually be able to emerge as a serious force. They lack prominent faces besides her and putting together a functioning party apparatus isn't that easy.

Though this also arguably provides some potential-- from anecdotal evidence, I know there are a ton of people who do not want to vote for the SPD because it has moved too far to the centre but also not support LINKE in its current form due to all the crazies defining foreign policy. I think there is a lane for a constructive left-of-SPD opposition, though the 5%-threshold makes these things not easy.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Regarding government formation in Hessen:

The CDU has said they will talk only with the Greens, SPD, and FDP to form a government.

Formal talks will likely start only next week, but this past Tuesday the CDU did have a preliminary meeting with the Greens and today (Wednesday) the CDU will have a preliminary meeting with the SPD. The FDP did not get a meeting this week, but will likely have one only next week.

Interestingly, the Hessen SPD will retain Nancy Faeser as lead negotiator for the coalition talks. That is rather awkward, because while she is indeed the state SPD chairwoman, she was simultaneously an election loser, and also will be retained as Minister of the Interior in Berlin. Faeser's claim that she would only go to Hessen if she won was not received well amongst the electorate, so why have her be the negotiator if she's definitely not staying on...? Maybe it's some kind of face-saving move if the CDU chooses to coalition with the SPD ("I lost the election but at least I got us into power!"). But that would also make it more embarrassing if she failed in that too. Oh well.

Either way, it seems like there really isn't any rush to get a new coalition in place ASAP. If I am reading this correctly, the new state parliament will only be seated on January 18th of next year. That's a very long time for a state parliament; is that normal?

[President Johnson]

Regarding government formation in Hessen:

The CDU has said they will talk only with the Greens, SPD, and FDP to form a government.

Formal talks will likely start only next week, but this past Tuesday the CDU did have a preliminary meeting with the Greens and today (Wednesday) the CDU will have a preliminary meeting with the SPD. The FDP did not get a meeting this week, but will likely have one only next week.

Interestingly, the Hessen SPD will retain Nancy Faeser as lead negotiator for the coalition talks. That is rather awkward, because while she is indeed the state SPD chairwoman, she was simultaneously an election loser, and also will be retained as Minister of the Interior in Berlin. Faeser's claim that she would only go to Hessen if she won was not received well amongst the electorate, so why have her be the negotiator if she's definitely not staying on...? Maybe it's some kind of face-saving move if the CDU chooses to coalition with the SPD ("I lost the election but at least I got us into power!"). But that would also make it more embarrassing if she failed in that too. Oh well.

Either way, it seems like there really isn't any rush to get a new coalition in place ASAP. If I am reading this correctly, the new state parliament will only be seated on January 18th of next year. That's a very long time for a state parliament; is that normal?

German states are just starting to adopt American traditions, having two/three months long lame duck sessions

Kidding aside, I already wondered about that in 2013/14 and 2018/19 as well. Now I was curious and actually looked it up in the state constitution. It says elections are held each five years and the each election must be held before the term of the current parliament expires. There is a specification though, providing a 18-day time span between the election and the opening session of the new parliament or after the regular five year term expires. Since the previous terms expired in January as well, the election on Sunday was just held three months before the new term is about to begin, which is in full accordance with the state constitution. It works differently in other states and at the federal level (the Basic Law requires a newly elected Bundestag to meet within thirty days after the election).

Here are the relevant provisions (in German, the bolded parts are important):

Art. 79
Der Landtag wird auf fünf Jahre gewählt (Wahlperiode). Die Neuwahl muss vor Ablauf der Wahlperiode
stattfinden.


Art. 80
Der Landtag kann sich durch einen Beschluss, für den mehr als die Hälfte der gesetzlichen Zahl seiner
Mitglieder gestimmt hat, selbst auflösen.


Art. 81
Nach Auflösung des Landtags muss die Neuwahl binnen sechzig Tagen stattfinden.


Art. 82
Die Wahlperiode des neuen Landtags beginnt, falls der alte Landtag aufgelöst worden ist, mit dem Tage der
Neuwahl, im Übrigen mit dem Ablaufe der Wahlperiode des alten Landtags.


Art. 83
(1) Der Landtag versammelt sich in der Regel am Sitze der Landesregierung.
(2) 1Der Landtag tritt kraft eigenen Rechts am 18. Tage nach der Wahl zusammen. 2Falls an diesem Tage die
Wahlperiode des alten Landtags noch nicht abgelaufen ist, versammelt sich der neue Landtag am Tage nach
dem Ablauf dieser Wahlperiode.
(3) Fällt einer der vorgenannten Tage auf einen Sonn- oder Feiertag, so tritt der Landtag erst am darauf
folgenden zweiten Werktag zusammen.
(4) Der Landtag bestimmt über Vertagungen, den Schluss der Tagung (Sitzungsperiode) und den Tag des
Wiederzusammentritts.
(5) 1Der Präsident des Landtags kann den Landtag jederzeit einberufen. 2Er muss es tun, wenn die
Landesregierung oder mindestens ein Fünftel der gesetzlichen Zahl der Mitglieder des Landtags es verlangt.

https://starweb.hessen.de/cache/hessen/Hessische_Verfassung2018.pdf

[palandio]

LINKE Bundestag member Thomas Lutze has officially left the LINKE and its parliamentary group and joined the SPD. I would think, it has much to do with the intra-party infighting in the Saarland state party. Connected to this there have been several allegations of fraud etc. over the years. Btw, the SPD of the Saarland did not want him, so he joined the Berlin state party.

Hopefully Dietmar Bartsch is next. He's often a voice for reason and would fit into the SPD's left wing. The government has now 417 seats and SPD 207, ten more than the Union.

What’s the expected ideology of a post-Wagenknecht Linke? Are the moderates potentially leaving because they regard it as too extreme or because it’s a sinking ship?

The Linke has been popular within parts of the activist "alternative" milieu from the beginning, but recent years have seen a strengthening and increased organization of what is now called the Bewegungslinke ("movement Left"). "Movement" means social movements like climate activism, pro-migrant activism, advocacy for sexual minorities and for the weakest elements of society. The Bewegungslinke now often has a plurality at party conventions and when Wagenknecht (who is vehemently opposed to the Bewegungslinke) leaves, it may eventually become a majority. The nomination of Carola Rackete (refugee boat captain and climate activist) as European election lead candidate is a clear indication of where the Linke is headed. The Bewegungslinke is often confounded by the media with the party's moderate "reformist" wing. And while there is certainly some overlap the Bewegungslinke on average is more critical of compromises for the sake of government.

Will the moderates leave? And if/when they do, why? By traditional labels Wagenknecht and most of her core supporters were part of the Linke's left wing. So theoretically the post-Wagenknecht Linke should move to the center. But my impression is that after becoming a minority within their own party, some moderates by now prefer a party in which no faction is the majority to a party with a majority that is not them. Additionally moderates from areas with a weak alternative voter potential (i.e. the East outside of some big cities) might fear that they will lose their already crumbling voter base.

[MT Treasurer]

Two polls from this week have shown the Social Democrats at 14% (lowest they’ve ever been), CDU leading by 15-16 points. Time for Scholz to start touting his legislative accomplishments..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_German_federal_election#Poll_results

[Utah Neolib]

Two polls from this week have shown the Social Democrats at 14% (lowest they’ve ever been), CDU leading by 15-16 points. Time for Scholz to start touting his legislative accomplishments..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_German_federal_election#Poll_results

CDU actually hitting 30 is a big deal. Also the trend right now seems that the AfD is holding steady but not continuing to climb. Why have the Greens stayed pretty much the same as 2021, compared to the SPD or FDP? The election is still 2 years away after all, but this is the first time 30% has been hit since what, the 2020 Merkel bump?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1720126742369599754?t=ISii-TOaZRMmI_AxfGvFT...

Potential interest in considering voting for a BSW party by current alignment.  Unsurprisingly,  it's mostly linke and AfD.

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1720126742369599754?t=ISii-TOaZRMmI_AxfGvFT...

Potential interest in considering voting for a BSW party by current alignment.  Unsurprisingly,  it's mostly linke and AfD.

20% of the CDU/SPD + 10% of the Greens is still a lot of people. Would be like 10% of the total vote.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1720126742369599754?t=ISii-TOaZRMmI_AxfGvFT...

Potential interest in considering voting for a BSW party by current alignment.  Unsurprisingly,  it's mostly linke and AfD.

20% of the CDU/SPD + 10% of the Greens is still a lot of people. Would be like 10% of the total vote.

These kinds of polls are only valuable in measuring where the support for the BSW would most likely come from. They don't provide any quantifiable assessment as to how strong this party could become numerically in practice.

I mean, in the beginning of the 2021 election campaign similar polls gave the Greens a voter "potential" of 60%.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

By the way, apparently the FDP has suggested that a Germany coalition (CDU-SPD-FDP) replace the current CDU-Green government in Hessen if they survive. This would however be completely unnecessary, even in the event that the FDP surpasses the 5% threshold, because CDU-SPD would have a comfortable majority on their own.

It will be interesting to see if the CDU continues to work with the Greens after the election, since their national party has been getting hammered for governing with the Greens while rhetorically opposing them. But the state CDU has had a good 10 years of working with the Greens; despite a 1 vote majority, politics have been quiet in Hessen and the working relationship is good, and it hasn't hurt the CDU electorally. Usually state governments do their own thing and don't take orders from the national party, but maybe the CDU will ditch the Greens if they get a better offer from the SPD.

CDU-Green still the most likely coalition after the election, but the chances of CDU-SPD are underrated in my opinion. Boris Rhein is the current Minister-President of Hessen, but only since May 31st, 2022. A CDU-Green would be merely a continuation of his predecessor, while CDU-SPD could offer a new start, especially on the topics of internal security, immigration, transportation, etc. The Hessen SPD has been out of power for 25 years, so I think there is a deep desire in the state SPD to get back into power, even if it means making the CDU a really good deal. We could see a reverse situation like the Berlin election this spring, where the Berlin CDU gave the SPD almost everything in order to get back into power after 22 years, but this time the Hessen SPD gives everything to the CDU to get back into power.

We'll see...

According to The Pioneer, the Hessen CDU is leaning towards ditching the Greens and forming a government with the SPD, on the basis of overlapping content, especially regarding migration policy.

An announcement is due at noon today.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

...aaaaaand it's the SPD. Thus marks the end of the first CDU-Green state government in Germany after 10 years.

Apparently migration was the biggest motivation, not only at the state level, but also potential Bundesrat votes and policy for the federal government. Rhein is the chair of the State Minister's Conference and has approached Scholz with tougher rules around asylum and refugees, and does not want the Greens to potentially undermine him.

Agriculture policy was also a major source of contention, since farmers have been protesting in Hessen. The CDU said that the SPD has accomodated them on all areas during the exploratory talks.

[President Johnson]

...aaaaaand it's the SPD. Thus marks the end of the first CDU-Green state government in Germany after 10 years.

Apparently migration was the biggest motivation, not only at the state level, but also potential Bundesrat votes and policy for the federal government. Rhein is the chair of the State Minister's Conference and has approached Scholz with tougher rules around asylum and refugees, and does not want the Greens to potentially undermine him.

Agriculture policy was also a major source of contention, since farmers have been protesting in Hessen. The CDU said that the SPD has accomodated them on all areas during the exploratory talks.

I wonder whether Nancy Faeser then gives up the leadership of Hesse SPD. Something she should have done shortly after moving to Berlin upon her surprise appointment by Scholz. She already ruled out to go back to Wiesbaden and join the state cabinet.

First reactions from the Greens are pretty negative. Especially national co-chair Omid Nouripur seems really p*ssed.

[JimJamUK]

...aaaaaand it's the SPD. Thus marks the end of the first CDU-Green state government in Germany after 10 years.

Apparently migration was the biggest motivation, not only at the state level, but also potential Bundesrat votes and policy for the federal government. Rhein is the chair of the State Minister's Conference and has approached Scholz with tougher rules around asylum and refugees, and does not want the Greens to potentially undermine him.

Agriculture policy was also a major source of contention, since farmers have been protesting in Hessen. The CDU said that the SPD has accomodated them on all areas during the exploratory talks.

What have the SPD got in return?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

...aaaaaand it's the SPD. Thus marks the end of the first CDU-Green state government in Germany after 10 years.

Apparently migration was the biggest motivation, not only at the state level, but also potential Bundesrat votes and policy for the federal government. Rhein is the chair of the State Minister's Conference and has approached Scholz with tougher rules around asylum and refugees, and does not want the Greens to potentially undermine him.

Agriculture policy was also a major source of contention, since farmers have been protesting in Hessen. The CDU said that the SPD has accomodated them on all areas during the exploratory talks.

What have the SPD got in return?

We don't know yet. The actual negotiations have only just begun, and the preliminary negotiations have taken place with great secrecy. When a coalition contract is announced, I will post about it, but until then, we just have to stay tuned for another few weeks or so.

The coalition talks in Hesse are scheduled to begin on Tuesday. The plan is to have the negotiations concluded before Christmas if possible.


EDIT - actually the Hessen SPD announced that the CDU has already offered the SPD "... on an expansion of daycare places and more staff in the daycare centers" as an opening concession. Furthermore, Rhein himself said that one motivation for choosing the SPD was that the SPD "has deep roots in the municipalities", especially up in the north, and so that could be a sign of greater funding going to the municipalities from the state.

[Aurelius2]

Something I've been wondering about for awhile. Thoughts on this?

Hot take time: my suspicion regarding Germany is that at some point push will come to shove and the AfD will split into two parties, der Flugel (the far-right Bjorn Hocke faction) and the rest of the party. The non-Flugel part will then break the cordon - they'll be the PVV to Hocke's FvD. As AfD grows, the coalitions required to keep AfD out of government - especially at the state level in some of the Länder - are just getting too weird and unstable for the status quo to continue indefinitely. At the same time, no one in their right mind will willingly coalition with a political movement as extreme as Hocke's faction, especially in a country like Germany where the shadow of history is especially heavy.

Right now if you're on the Right and not a neoliberal/libertarian (thus ruling out FDP), your only options (unless you're in Bavaria, where the FW are an option and where their CSU is a bit more right-wing thsn the CDU it substitutes for) are the CDU, which barely even makes a pretense of being right of center these days, and the AFD, which contains the single most extreme-right faction in western European politics. I don't see how this can (or should) hold.