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https://twitter.com/BrendonLeslie/status/1795455289023414652

The range of Victory has now gone up from 8 to 13 Points to between 9 and 15 Points.

https://twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1795455911139430537

'Verrrrry good night for the anoraks.'

Hi all, I'm a video journalist from England who lives in New York.
 
I'm doing a story on first-time voters in the upcoming presidential election who had the option to vote in previous elections but chose not to.

I'm curious why 2024 is the year that you decided to vote for the first time. What issues have left you with no choice but to head to the polls?

Please reach out to this post or tag someone you know who may fit this category. I'd love to chat.

I am once again listening to 2000s emo.

Red avatars are always nervous. If Biden were up by 10 points I would also be nervous.

I think RFK will do well with anti-system voters but I think there was a chance he could have gotten closer to ‘92 levels of success if he had ran a better campaign. Instead he comes off as am Epstein-connected formerly brain-worm infested stooge who can’t even pick a popular veep.

COMPETETIVE S map 26

VA Warner, MN Smith, MI Peters ME Collins, MT Daines, GA, NC Tillis

COMPETETIVE S map in 28
WI Johnson, OH Vance , NC Budd, AZ Kelly, GA Warnock, NV CCM PA Fetterman

WHERE ARE THE RS GONNA GAIN IN 26/28 WITHOUT CRACKING THE BLUE WALL

I have Collins and Daines losing in 26 and Johnson losing in 28 there are no blue states where Rs are gonna gain in 26/28

It's very likely Jackson loses the AG race in NC and he runs for S against Tillis and Busse loses the Gov race in MT and runs against Daines

One underrated possible scenario is that the election indeed trends into Biden's favour and that in november it ends up that the polls were right at this stage of the year, and Trump wins by a similar percentage as shown in the polls right now. I feel like polls struggle with the last phase.

I think the trends closer to the election have been on multiple times misleading, 2016, 2020 and 2022. And that polls much further away from the election ended up being more accurate, except for states that were generally already considered unlikely pick ups from the start, like Bredesen in 2018.

What type of idiot thinks Michelle Obama would win?

Lol

I'm not one of these kids but I am sympathetic to them. Here's my best stab at how they'd probably react to these points you've raised.

1) Do you think Trump would be better for Palestinians? Have you looked at his record and his statements on the matter? Do you not see at least some contrast between Trump and Biden?

2) If not, what's the plan to free Gaza if Trump gets into office?

They genuinely believe the Israeli invasion of Gaza constitutes a genocide. If you truly believe that, there is no such thing as a lesser evil. Thus, these questions make no sense.

3) Also, what's the plan for LGBTQ rights, student loan forgiveness, climate change and other priorities that will surely move backward if Trump wins?

Again, they are aware Trump will be worse than Biden on many issues. They simply cannot countenance voting for someone they genuinely believe is aiding and abetting a genocide.

4) How will you navigate a Democratic Party that will likely blame you heavily for Trump's win and won't consider you a good faith partner in shared objectives?

I would not take it as a given that the bulk of the protesters consider themselves Democrats. A great many of them are or will gravitate towards the sectarian far left (think minor communist parties and anarchist collectives). A lot of them are young enough to have never voted before, and if they do vote this year they'll vote for Jill Stein or whoever the PSL nominated.

They don't care what Democrats think about them and do not intend to "navigate" the party in the future.