Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

So could be FJ's Tweet I posted a few minutes ago was an on the ground footage of this ambush earlier?

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1503083485065535495?s=20&t=U2emi46tvbmN...

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1503081380644900867?s=20&t=U2emi46tvbmN...

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1503082121648300040?s=20&t=U2emi46tvbmN...

From Russia with love.

[NOVA Green]

Discuss with Maps (Or if not self-made at least somebody else's).  

Since we haven't had any of this variety posted in a bit...

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1502915584496971778?s=20&t=U2emi46tvbmNiP...

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1502916241811513347?s=20&t=U2emi46tvbmNiP...

https://hhttps://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1502916348632043521?s=20&t=r9InV...

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1502916524536958981?s=20&t=r9InVdfbS4Bkm-...

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1502916774697783297?s=20&t=r9InVdfbS4Bkm-...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1503079226529964043?s=20&t=XkxNhl1sP...

https://twitter.com/imaweshum1/status/1503094208546193415?s=20&t=XkxNhl1sP3G...

A brigade consists of between 3000-10000 soldiers. I wonder if there will be enough Americans to form their own brigade.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1503079226529964043?s=20&t=XkxNhl1sP...

https://twitter.com/imaweshum1/status/1503094208546193415?s=20&t=XkxNhl1sP3G...

A brigade consists of between 3000-10000 soldiers. I wonder if there will be enough Americans to form their own brigade.

The last I heard, they had 3000 so maybe.

[rc18]

So could be FJ's Tweet I posted a few minutes ago was an on the ground footage of this ambush earlier?

I believe these are two separate incidents. The bird's eye view is in a residential area while the video of the other convoy is rural.

[sguberman]

Apparently Russia has asked China for military assistance
https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content

[Storr]

Well, this could turn into something big:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1503098241612750852?s=20&t=XkxNhl1sP...

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1503098245840609288?s=20&t=XkxNhl1sP...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interesting look into multiple facets of what doubtless many volunteers are undergoing/thinking/pondering.

[NOVA Green]

Another Russian Occupied city in Ukraine with large Anti-Occupation demonstrations taking place today, this one in Berdyansk:


https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1502973427916939265?s=20&t=r9InVdfbS...

[dead0man]

Interesting look into multiple facets of what doubtless many volunteers are undergoing/thinking/pondering.

Lindybeige!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interesting look into multiple facets of what doubtless many volunteers are undergoing/thinking/pondering.

Lindybeige!

The title made me think for the longest time that Lindybeige himself was going into Ukraine, and he indeed has military experience, so it wouldn't be too unsurprising. Turns out it's just a friend of his.

[brucejoel99]

Well, this could turn into something big:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1503098241612750852

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1503098245840609288

If I didn't know any better, I'd presume that Russia is just hoping for Chinese involvement so as to potentially create a rift among sanctioning countries: even just the U.S. sanctioning China would create significant economic issues for everybody.

[compucomp]

Apparently Russia has asked China for military assistance
https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content

And so what? How much military aid has the West given Ukraine? Far greater than zero, yes?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Apparently Russia has asked China for military assistance
https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content

And so what? How much military aid has the West given Ukraine? Far greater than zero, yes?

You're weird.

[President Johnson]

Apparently Russia has asked China for military assistance
https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content

Big if true. That would tell you things are going very poorly for Putin.

I seriously doubt China has any desire to get involved militarily in any shape or form. While they don't want to stab Moscow in the back, Xi has little interest in this war prolonging. Alone for China's economic investments in Ukraine and Western sanctions hurting the global economy, to which the Chinese are extensively connected.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Apparently Russia has asked China for military assistance
https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content

Big if true. That would tell you that things are going very poorly for Putin.

I seriously doubt China has any desire to get involved militarily in any shape or form. While don't want to stab Moscow in the back, Xi has little interest in this war prolonging. Alone for China's economic investments in Ukraine and Western sanctions hurting the global economy, to which the Chinese are extensively connected.

Yeah, China suddenly going from abstaining at the UN to providing military aid to Russia doesn't sound very logical.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Just because Russia is asking China for assistance doesn't mean it will be forthcoming. They asked Kazakhstan too.

[Bismarck]

This is beginning to have many parallels to the Greek War for Independence. A small European country battling a large power on the periphery of Europe, inspiring Europeans to go fight.

[Storr]

Apparently Russia has asked China for military assistance
https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content

Big if true. That would tell you that things are going very poorly for Putin.

I seriously doubt China has any desire to get involved militarily in any shape or form. While don't want to stab Moscow in the back, Xi has little interest in this war prolonging. Alone for China's economic investments in Ukraine and Western sanctions hurting the global economy, to which the Chinese are extensively connected.

At most I could see the Chinese sending weapons (like NATO). I just don't see what the benefit of getting directly involved would be for the Chinese. In the best scenario (for Russia) a new "denazified" Ukrainian government is installed and China gets what exactly out of their help? They already have a 25 year cheap oil deal with Russia, signed a few weeks before the invasion.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-04/russia-s-gazprom-signs-new-gas-supply-contract-with-china

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Russia is shutting down Instagram per a few minutes ago from The Guardian:

Access to Instagram in Russia appears to be restricted across multiple providers. The government notified users earlier today that the service will cease to be available following Meta’s, the parent company of Instagram, decision to allow users in Ukraine to post anti-Russian messages such as “death to the Russian invaders.”

“An email message from the state communications regulator told users to move their photos and videos from Instagram before it was shut down, and encouraged them to switch to Russia’s own “competitive internet platforms”,” according to CNN.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/13/ukraine-news-russia-war-ceasefire-broken-humanitarian-corridors-kyiv-russian-invasion-live-vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelenskiy-latest-updates-live

https://twitter.com/netblocks/status/1503112394150715405?s=20&t=nwB1vtgy6Wuw...

[dead0man]

Apparently Russia has asked China for military assistance
https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content

Big if true. That would tell you that things are going very poorly for Putin.

I seriously doubt China has any desire to get involved militarily in any shape or form. While don't want to stab Moscow in the back, Xi has little interest in this war prolonging. Alone for China's economic investments in Ukraine and Western sanctions hurting the global economy, to which the Chinese are extensively connected.

At most I could see the Chinese sending weapons (like NATO). I just don't see what the benefit for the Chinese would be, if they directly got involved. In the best scenario (for Russia) a new "denazified" Ukrainian government is installed and China gets what exactly out of their help? They already have a 25 year cheap oil deal with Russia, signed a few weeks before the invasion.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-04/russia-s-gazprom-signs-new-gas-supply-contract-with-china

it's a chance to test their gear in a real world situation, which they need.  Probably not worth the ...ahem....fallout though.   ugggg

[Cashew]

Apparently Russia has asked China for military assistance
https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content

And so what? How much military aid has the West given Ukraine? Far greater than zero, yes?

It's embarrassing as a so called great power like Russia should be capable of defeating Ukraine in its own regardless of western support.

[Torrain]

it's a chance to test their gear in a real world situation, which they need.

Unironically - that’s probably one of the factors here. China would, on one hand, get the chance to see how their tech does in the field, sabre rattle in the general direction of Taiwan, and potentially boast about the quality of their kit.

However… Given that the Russians seem to be determined to drive tanks into ditches, lose millions of dollars worth of hardware, and routinely make it into Ukraine propaganda that makes them seem stupid, I’m not sure that Beijing would be pleased with the news coverage they’d receive - or the odds that NATO gets the chance to check out some Chinese armaments, after a group of Russian conscripts abandon gear near the Polish border.

And that’s not even starting on the economic impact on Sino-European relationships…

[NOVA Green]

I find it extremely unlikely that China would provide any type of direct military assistance to Russia.

As it is what there is of the Chinese Tech Sector is already walking a really fine line with the Global Sanctions Regime against Russia, where simply trading with a banned Russian entity and basically completely demolish their inexpensive alternatives within the European, Asian-Pacific market, not to mention the US market for a range of consumer goods.

Sure China will likely try to fill the gap in the Russian market for consumer electronic items such as PCs, Printers, and Cell Phones, but anything involving "dual use technologies" will cause those companies more harm than good, considering the relatively small share of the Global Market which Russia consists of.

Additionally, many subcomponents used in Chinese Electronic Mfg plants actually are manufactured elsewhere, not to mention some of the tooling in the fabs, etc...

As it is, pretty sure the US will be talking be all of these related issues with China in Rome coming up here....

Forgive me if I don't do a wall of quotes from various recent articles related to this at the moment.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/13/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates/#link-UD2Q4MAMAJEAZO5TUEYSMNX4JA

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chip-makers-stockpiled-key-materials-ahead-of-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-11647167582?mod=livecoverage_web

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-11/card/u-s-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-to-meet-with-chinese-official-on-ukraine-Kt4HRrsR6vz0yH4t9Pmo

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/03/12/will-china-offer-russia-financial-help

[compucomp]

I find it extremely unlikely that China would provide any type of direct military assistance to Russia.

As it is what there is of the Chinese Tech Sector is already walking a really fine line with the Global Sanctions Regime against Russia, where simply trading with a banned Russian entity and basically completely demolish their inexpensive alternatives within the European, Asian-Pacific market, not to mention the US market for a range of consumer goods.

Sure China will likely try to fill the gap in the Russian market for consumer electronic items such as PCs, Printers, and Cell Phones, but anything involving "dual use technologies" will cause those companies more harm than good, considering the relatively small share of the Global Market which Russia consists of.

Additionally, many subcomponents used in Chinese Electronic Mfg plants actually are manufactured elsewhere, not to mention some of the tooling in the fabs, etc...

As it is, pretty sure the US will be talking be all of these related issues with China in Rome coming up here....

Forgive me if I don't do a wall of quotes from various recent articles related to this at the moment.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/13/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates/#link-UD2Q4MAMAJEAZO5TUEYSMNX4JA

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chip-makers-stockpiled-key-materials-ahead-of-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-11647167582?mod=livecoverage_web

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-11/card/u-s-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-to-meet-with-chinese-official-on-ukraine-Kt4HRrsR6vz0yH4t9Pmo

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/03/12/will-china-offer-russia-financial-help

You make good points about the real intention of this leak. I'm now thinking that this was intentionally leaked by the US government to swing their dicks and show off how powerful their sanctions are in deterring China from aiding Russia. They score some cheap reputation points this way about how they are still in charge of the world. Well, I think it's time for China to call their bluff and aid Russia if only to spit in the face of the sanctions. I'm not saying the sanctions would not hurt China, because as you detailed they would. But it's time for China to stand its ground and retaliate with its own sanctions, possibly up to an embargo. Everyone knows midterm elections are in 8 months. The only Russian export bought in meaningful quantities in the US is oil and gas price surge is already causing consternation in the US. You thought inflation and supply chain issues were bad now? Remember March 2020 when masks and hand sanitizer were sold out everywhere and surgical masks were going for $1 apiece? Does Biden really want to risk economic and possible societal meltdown just in time for Democrats to be demolished, so he can help Ukraine? Really?