Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Updated list of Russian high ranking officer casualties, now with a second page. Yesterday alone the Russians lost a major general, a major, and three captains. In just the past three days, the Russians have had 10 high ranking officers killed in action.

https://twitter.com/4ukraine834614/status/1502804855471185925?s=20&t=Lu6FIHX...

Another Russian major killed:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502970375084421127?s=20&t=BG144LyZvwW9CA...

[It’s so Joever]

Russia starting to get its military functioning together with several Ukrainian cities surrounded including the capital, Kiev.

The troops waiting on the Western side of the city have started to encircle the city to the South  after troops arrived on the Eastern front.

Kiev is likely to become encircled with no air support.

"The cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol remain surrounded and are under heavy Russian bombardment.".

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/12/russia-ukraine-war-military-dispatch-march-12-2022

Russia will have 5 cities surrounded and cut off shortly.



You just get the feeling that more Russian casualties will only serve to bring out deadlier weapons.

Zelensky is talking a big game, but he has one major tactical problem - no one is coming to help him.

If Russians cut all supply lines and destroy Western arms shipments, they will be completely isolated.

I didn’t think Kharkiv was surrounded?
Even Chernihiv’s encircled status is a bit murky and contested.

[Storr]

Russia starting to get its military functioning together with several Ukrainian cities surrounded including the capital, Kiev.

The troops waiting on the Western side of the city have started to encircle the city to the South  after troops arrived on the Eastern front.

Kiev is likely to become encircled with no air support.

"The cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol remain surrounded and are under heavy Russian bombardment.".

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/12/russia-ukraine-war-military-dispatch-march-12-2022

Russia will have 5 cities surrounded and cut off shortly.



You just get the feeling that more Russian casualties will only serve to bring out deadlier weapons.

Zelensky is talking a big game, but he has one major tactical problem - no one is coming to help him.

If Russians cut all supply lines and destroy Western arms shipments, they will be completely isolated.

I didn’t think Kharkiv was surrounded?
Even Chernihiv’s encircled status is a bit murky and contested.

This map, published yesterday shows essentially what you said about Kharkiv and Chernihiv, that they are not surrounded:


The ISW March 12 Russian offensive campaign assessment, where I found the map:
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-12

"Immediate items to watch

The Kremlin likely seeks to pressure Belarus to join the war in Ukraine and will deploy Syrian fighters to Ukraine in the near future;

Ukrainian counterattacks and operations by Territorial Defense Forces in northeastern Ukraine threaten Russia’s exposed line of communication, requiring Russia to redeploy forces away from the offensive toward eastern Kyiv;

Russian forces are undertaking another operational pause to prepare for renewed efforts to encircle Kyiv from east and west and/or to seize the city center itself following their failures of March 8-9;

Russian troops may drive on Zaporizhya City itself within the next 48-72 hours, likely to try and block it on both banks of the Dnipro River and set conditions for subsequent operations after Russian forces take Mariupol, which they are currently besieging."

[Frodo]

Question: have the Russians managed to get the water flowing again to Crimea after they took control of the North Crimean Canal?

[NOVA Green]

So it looks confirmed that the base attacked in Western Ukraine near the Polish border posted upthread was in fact the Yavoriv military complex and currently where many of the foreign fighters coming to Ukraine are being trained:

Video shows the moment of an attack on a Ukrainian military base near the Polish border.

A military base in western Ukraine known for training fighters who have traveled to the country from abroad was severely damaged by attacks Sunday morning, according to videos verified by The Times. The facility is about 12 miles from the Polish border.

Footage sent to The Times by a fighter at the base showed flames rising into the night sky, along with the sounds of several large explosions.

Later videos show several structures almost destroyed, or still burning, at the International Peacekeeping and Security Center in Yavoriv, as well as a large crater next to the camp’s training facility and sports fields.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/13/world/ukraine-russia-war/video-shows-the-moment-of-an-attack-on-a-ukrainian-military-base-near-the-polish-border

The base attacked in western Ukraine has been a hub for foreign militaries.

The base outside Lviv that was attacked by Russian forces early on Sunday was a key link between Ukraine’s armed forces and Western militaries before the war — and has become an important logistics hub and training center for foreign fighters since Russia’s invasion began.

A Ukrainian military official said that up to 1,000 foreign fighters were training at the base — the International Peacekeeping and Security Center, which is also known as the Yavoriv military complex — as part of the new International Legion that Ukraine has formed to help fight Russia.

Before the war, troops from the United States, Britain, Canada, Poland, Latvia and other Western allies trained Ukrainian forces there, starting in the 1990s. One of the buildings that was hit in the attack was in an area where American, Canadian and other foreign military instructors had stayed before the invasion, according to a broadcast journalist for the U.S. Army who covered multinational training at the base.

...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/13/world/europe/yavoriv-military-base-ukraine.html

[Logical]

Question: have the Russians managed to get the water flowing again to Crimea after they took control of the North Crimean Canal?

They have
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499384801123618819

[Storr]

Question: have the Russians managed to get the water flowing again to Crimea after they took control of the North Crimean Canal?

Yes.

From March 4th: "North Crimean Canal Fills With Water After Russian Forces Destroyed Dam"

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/04/north-crimean-canal-fills-with-water-after-russian-forces-destroyed-dam-a76755

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So it looks confirmed that the base attacked in Western Ukraine near the Polish border posted upthread was in fact the Yavoriv military complex and currently where many of the foreign fighters coming to Ukraine are being trained:

Video shows the moment of an attack on a Ukrainian military base near the Polish border.

A military base in western Ukraine known for training fighters who have traveled to the country from abroad was severely damaged by attacks Sunday morning, according to videos verified by The Times. The facility is about 12 miles from the Polish border.

Footage sent to The Times by a fighter at the base showed flames rising into the night sky, along with the sounds of several large explosions.

Later videos show several structures almost destroyed, or still burning, at the International Peacekeeping and Security Center in Yavoriv, as well as a large crater next to the camp’s training facility and sports fields.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/13/world/ukraine-russia-war/video-shows-the-moment-of-an-attack-on-a-ukrainian-military-base-near-the-polish-border

The base attacked in western Ukraine has been a hub for foreign militaries.

The base outside Lviv that was attacked by Russian forces early on Sunday was a key link between Ukraine’s armed forces and Western militaries before the war — and has become an important logistics hub and training center for foreign fighters since Russia’s invasion began.

A Ukrainian military official said that up to 1,000 foreign fighters were training at the base — the International Peacekeeping and Security Center, which is also known as the Yavoriv military complex — as part of the new International Legion that Ukraine has formed to help fight Russia.

Before the war, troops from the United States, Britain, Canada, Poland, Latvia and other Western allies trained Ukrainian forces there, starting in the 1990s. One of the buildings that was hit in the attack was in an area where American, Canadian and other foreign military instructors had stayed before the invasion, according to a broadcast journalist for the U.S. Army who covered multinational training at the base.

...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/13/world/europe/yavoriv-military-base-ukraine.html

These new foreign fighters are of dubious value. Even if individually competent, most of them probably haven't trained for long together (and I'm guessing some of them haven't trained much at all). My guess is that they were hit to dissuade more from coming rather than because those specific fighters were actually a threat.

[dead0man]

These new foreign fighters are of dubious value. Even if individually competent, most of them probably haven't trained for long together (and I'm guessing some of them haven't trained much at all). My guess is that they were hit to dissuade more from coming rather than because those specific fighters were actually a threat.

there is a lot of overlap in western tactics and training (meaning everyone does it the American way).  There is no reason a dozen Canadians, 9 Americans, 4 Brits and a German couldn't work well together.

[Storr]

I don't think the plan to start a "Kherson People's Republic" is working out all that well.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1502966766087163908?s=20&t=3cqcY5...

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1503016745468104705?s=20&t=3cqcY5...

[NOVA Green]

These new foreign fighters are of dubious value. Even if individually competent, most of them probably haven't trained for long together (and I'm guessing some of them haven't trained much at all). My guess is that they were hit to dissuade more from coming rather than because those specific fighters were actually a threat.

there is a lot of overlap in western tactics and training (meaning everyone does it the American way).  There is no reason a dozen Canadians, 9 Americans, 4 Brits and a German couldn't work well together.

This is true, assuming you're looking at ex-military types where it wouldn't be uncommon for the individuals to have undertaken joint training exercises in the past.

It is questionable if there were any casualties among the "International Brigade"... just saw this a few minutes ago in a longer story in The Wall Street Journal:

Shortly after the airstrikes Sunday morning on the facility at Yavoriv, a checkpoint guard at the base’s entrance warned of additional shelling, as dozens of uniformed soldiers and young men in street clothes exited through the gates and dispersed into a forest.

A spokesman for the International Legion of Defense of Ukraine declined to comment on reports that fighters from foreign countries were receiving military training at the base. A Ukrainian military spokesman also declined to comment but said there were no foreigners among the dead or wounded, as did the Yavoriv mayor’s office.

A physician at a hospital in nearby Novoyavorivsk said he hadn’t identified any foreigners among the bloodied and dazed wounded men who wandered the facility or left it on stretchers.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-missiles-strike-ukrainian-military-training-base-near-polish-border-11647169428

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

These new foreign fighters are of dubious value. Even if individually competent, most of them probably haven't trained for long together (and I'm guessing some of them haven't trained much at all). My guess is that they were hit to dissuade more from coming rather than because those specific fighters were actually a threat.

there is a lot of overlap in western tactics and training (meaning everyone does it the American way).  There is no reason a dozen Canadians, 9 Americans, 4 Brits and a German couldn't work well together.

There are language barriers, people without formal military training, unstable individuals who are more likely to pull rank (because of the lack of a long-established chain of command, among other reasons), a lack of familiar gear (especially air support/the kind of heavy weaponry Western armies are used to), and a probable imbalance in the types of soldiers arriving compared to your average unit in a standing army. There are also a lot of fighters who never received Western-style training - a lot of the people come from countries that are or were recently in Russia's sphere of influence, and even more of them never trained in NATO/other joint military exercises.

On top of all this: the Afghans were trained the American way; that didn't mean they actually did things that way. The foreign legion will probably work more cohesively than the volunteers joining the Syrian rebels or the Afghan mujahideen in the early days, but they'll still be unreliable at first, IMO.

[Storr]

Do American communists realize Russia isn't communist anymore?

I don't understand how the Russian invasion of Ukraine helps communism, but I guess I'm too capitalist.

https://twitter.com/medicalmomentum/status/1502916076560072704?s=20&t=973mwn...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Do American communists realize Russia isn't communist anymore?

https://twitter.com/medicalmomentum/status/1502916076560072704?s=20&t=973mwn...

WTF is this sh**t?

[Storr]

Do American communists realize Russia isn't communist anymore?

https://twitter.com/medicalmomentum/status/1502916076560072704?s=20&t=973mwn...

WTF is this sh**t?

The fact this is a real photograph makes my brain hurt.

[Logical]

Do American communists realize Russia isn't communist anymore?

https://twitter.com/medicalmomentum/status/1502916076560072704?s=20&t=973mwn...

WTF is this sh**t?

Every person in that room is either a Fed or an informant.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Hasn’t the CPUSA been mostly comprised of FBI agents for several decades now? The real problems on the left are the DSA International Committee and (as always) the PSL.

[Storr]

Hasn’t the CPUSA been mostly comprised of FBI agents for several decades now? The real problems on the left are the DSA International Committee and (as always) the PSL.

The banner thing behind them says the "Center for Political Innovation". I have no idea if that's affiliated with CPUSA, but yeah CPUSA has been irrelevant since the 70s.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Do American communists realize Russia isn't communist anymore?

https://twitter.com/medicalmomentum/status/1502916076560072704?s=20&t=973mwn...

WTF is this sh**t?

Every person in that room is either a Fed or an informant.

You underestimate how stupid contrarianism can become.

[Badger]

Do American communists realize Russia isn't communist anymore?

https://twitter.com/medicalmomentum/status/1502916076560072704?s=20&t=973mwn...

WTF is this sh**t?

Every person in that room is either a Fed or an informant.

You underestimate how stupid contrarianism can become.

Impossible. I'm on Atlas.

[Frodo]

Question: have the Russians managed to get the water flowing again to Crimea after they took control of the North Crimean Canal?

They have
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499384801123618819

From March 4th: "North Crimean Canal Fills With Water After Russian Forces Destroyed Dam"

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/04/north-crimean-canal-fills-with-water-after-russian-forces-destroyed-dam-a76755

Well it's good to see the Russians did something right!  

[Storr]

It's not even a cage...

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1503062532977795084?s=20&t=jjrqbV1j...

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1503029782530957317

[NOVA Green]

Okay not quite sure the date stamp on this but looks to be recent.

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1503086695679414276?s=20&t=U2emi46tvbm...

[NOVA Green]

So could be FJ's Tweet I posted a few minutes ago was an on the ground footage of this ambush earlier?

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1503083485065535495?s=20&t=U2emi46tvbmN...

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1503081380644900867?s=20&t=U2emi46tvbmN...

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1503082121648300040?s=20&t=U2emi46tvbmN...