Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

The way the USA should be countering Russia on the medium run is a "Hydrocarbons New Deal" with an all out fracking effort.

[Aurelius]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

The bad of Ukraine ceasing to exist as a sovereign nation far, far outweighs your portfolio going up slightly.

Hmmm .. just to be clear I want the US equity markets to go down.  In my last portfolio rebalance in late 2021 I have become very underweight equities.    I plan to be heavy intermediate fixed income late in 2022 so I am looking to get back into equities again in between that transition.  So for me it is ideal that US equities go down a lot, ideally bottoming out in March 2022.

The point


Your head

[Person Man]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

I am pretty sure that you have no idea what you are talking about. You've been wrong about Putin's aims and ambitions in Ukraine, you failed to predict this invasion and now you're making pronouncements about "fear of something bad" being worse than "the bad thing" before we even understand the full extent of this war, its meaning, its length, duration, the effect of sanctions etc. The wise thing to do would be to listen and learn from people who aren't fools.

Jaichind's posts have been insightful and a net good for this thread, and tbh, he adds more to this thread than a majority of posters do.
Lay off please.

Both him being very insightful and greedy can be true at the same time. It really is questionable that all he thinks about is money, but it's good information about what to do with your money, whether you only have a few thousands/tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands or even many millions of dollars.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1496851833549111306?t=4exQQlREwR_bfqAxhL2V6A...

US doesn’t share its border with Iraq

Say the US sent troops into Mexico or Canada as part of a long-planned incursion. How long would it take for them to destroy all their air defenses?

Less than a day, if there is no consideration for civilians and US can just sent rockets everywhere.

Sounds about right. Russia, like us, is quite capable of mass rocket attacks. I'd be scared for whoever was fighting us if we had Russian doctrines.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/Karmabash/status/1496942108942340107

Made this point earlier in Crimea. Glad they're reading the forum lol

[MaxQue]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

Sadly this seems to be why the west can’t respond properly to either Russia or China . We are so addicted with low prices that it hampers our ability to respond.

Would also help if we'd spent the past year expanding production instead of constricting it. Biden's foreign policy has been good but his domestic policy is a disaster across the board and this is an example.

This is a huge example :


https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496579280091951111?cxt=HHwWjsC5...

Again, the main problem is that you will never get cheap oil from Keystone XL. Bituminous sands is the most expensive source of oil, which means that when prices are low, either the pipeline will be empty (as it will cost money to the oil company to sell its oil) or you're stuck in a contract where someone will have to buy oil at an above market price (terrible for the USA competitivity).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

I am pretty sure that you have no idea what you are talking about. You've been wrong about Putin's aims and ambitions in Ukraine, you failed to predict this invasion and now you're making pronouncements about "fear of something bad" being worse than "the bad thing" before we even understand the full extent of this war, its meaning, its length, duration, the effect of sanctions etc. The wise thing to do would be to listen and learn from people who aren't fools.

Jaichind's posts have been insightful and a net good for this thread, and tbh, he adds more to this thread than a majority of posters do.
Lay off please.

Both him being very insightful and greedy can be true at the same time.

Of course. Never denied that. Of course, given my inclinations, I don't care about how much he cares about his investments, and him talking about the markets adds variety and informs us of the pulse of the business class at the moment. Fine by me!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The way the USA should be countering Russia on the medium run is a "Hydrocarbons New Deal" with an all out fracking effort.

While that's not at all an ideal fight to pick, should the US pick that fight, that is how it would best be waged.

[GALeftist]

Sadly it does seem that much of the west is simply not prepared to do the right thing if it's not also the easy thing. Yes, the sanctions necessary to dent Russian resolve will increase gas prices. I'll pay whatever gas prices I need to save the lives of innocent Ukrainians as well as potential future victims of Russian aggression. This is bigger than personal convenience.

[Donerail]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

I am pretty sure that you have no idea what you are talking about. You've been wrong about Putin's aims and ambitions in Ukraine, you failed to predict this invasion and now you're making pronouncements about "fear of something bad" being worse than "the bad thing" before we even understand the full extent of this war, its meaning, its length, duration, the effect of sanctions etc. The wise thing to do would be to listen and learn from people who aren't fools.

Jaichind's posts (a majority of them, anyway) have been insightful and a net good for this thread, and tbh, he adds more to this thread than a majority of posters do.
Lay off please.

Incorrect. Lay off please.

[compucomp]

Sadly it does seem that much of the west is simply not prepared to do the right thing if it's not also the easy thing. Yes, the sanctions necessary to dent Russian resolve will increase gas prices. I'll pay whatever gas prices I need to save the lives of innocent Ukrainians as well as potential future victims of Russian aggression. This is bigger than personal convenience.

Judging by this forum, Westerners and Americans in particular think it's an intolerable burden to put on a damn mask, so what exactly did you expect when faced something that will hit their pocketbook and livelihood in a real way?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/LMartinezABC/status/1496945607860178944

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Looks like Hostomel airport has been recaptured by Ukraine, which is big. Means Russia will have to push to Kyiv overland now.

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

Sadly this seems to be why the west can’t respond properly to either Russia or China . We are so addicted with low prices that it hampers our ability to respond.

Would also help if we'd spent the past year expanding production instead of constricting it. Biden's foreign policy has been good but his domestic policy is a disaster across the board and this is an example.

This is a huge example :


https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496579280091951111?cxt=HHwWjsC5...

Again, the main problem is that you will never get cheap oil from Keystone XL. Bituminous sands is the most expensive source of oil, which means that when prices are low, either the pipeline will be empty (as it will cost money to the oil company to sell its oil) or you're stuck in a contract where someone will have to buy oil at an above market price (terrible for the USA competitivity).

So it still wouldn't be a solution?

[ProudModerate2]

Looks like Hostomel airport has been recaptured by Ukraine, which is big. Means Russia will have to push to Kyiv overland now.

How recent is this news you are posting?
The recapture story has gone back and forth for the last couple of hours now.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1496869020372398080

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1496944661256097793?t=Tl0-GOlpOZeZ8VE2e...

[Damocles]

Sadly it does seem that much of the west is simply not prepared to do the right thing if it's not also the easy thing. Yes, the sanctions necessary to dent Russian resolve will increase gas prices. I'll pay whatever gas prices I need to save the lives of innocent Ukrainians as well as potential future victims of Russian aggression. This is bigger than personal convenience.

Would be nice if we didn't have to depend so much on gas in the first place. We could have been less prone to sh#%t like this if we weren't automobile-centric. Our car dependency is now a national security issue.

[Hope For A New Era]

Seems like Ukraine has control of Hostomel again? There's been a new wave of reports of it. Hopefully for real this time.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

1,700 arrests of anti-war protesters in Russia so far but they seem to still be going. In Moscow:

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1496937265381134348

[The Mikado]

I must say that the situation is terrible. But so far I'm fine. At the moment, I am taking my family out of my city to the village where I have a house. Details will be announced later, if possible

Reiterating what I said a few days ago: if you set up a Go Fund Me, we will donate. A lot of us want to show our support for a Ukrainian in our little community here, so if that's needed, do not hesitate to act.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

I am pretty sure that you have no idea what you are talking about. You've been wrong about Putin's aims and ambitions in Ukraine, you failed to predict this invasion and now you're making pronouncements about "fear of something bad" being worse than "the bad thing" before we even understand the full extent of this war, its meaning, its length, duration, the effect of sanctions etc. The wise thing to do would be to listen and learn from people who aren't fools.

Jaichind's posts have been insightful and a net good for this thread, and tbh, he adds more to this thread than a majority of posters do.
Lay off please.

Both him being very insightful and greedy can be true at the same time.

Of course. Never denied that. Of course, given my inclinations, I don't care about how much he cares about his investments, and him talking about the markets adds variety and informs us of the pulse of the business class at the moment. Fine by me!

"The pulse of the business class" at the moment is mostly concerned with whether or not to boot Russia out of SWIFT, which would have implications for the real economy, especially in Mitteleuropean countries. The pulse of the speculator class, which is what jaichind is interested in, is the same reality-free arrhythmia it always is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

I am pretty sure that you have no idea what you are talking about. You've been wrong about Putin's aims and ambitions in Ukraine, you failed to predict this invasion and now you're making pronouncements about "fear of something bad" being worse than "the bad thing" before we even understand the full extent of this war, its meaning, its length, duration, the effect of sanctions etc. The wise thing to do would be to listen and learn from people who aren't fools.

Jaichind's posts have been insightful and a net good for this thread, and tbh, he adds more to this thread than a majority of posters do.
Lay off please.

Both him being very insightful and greedy can be true at the same time.

Of course. Never denied that. Of course, given my inclinations, I don't care about how much he cares about his investments, and him talking about the markets adds variety and informs us of the pulse of the business class at the moment. Fine by me!

"The pulse of the business class" at the moment is mostly concerned with whether or not to boot Russia out of SWIFT, which would have implications for the real economy, especially in Mitteleuropean countries. The pulse of the speculator class, which is what jaichind is interested in, is the same reality-free arrhythmia it always is.

Ok, you have some good points. I'd still have them rather than not have them, but you are correct about the realities of the markets.
My favorite part of Jaichind's posts, and this is a part I like very much, is what he has posited about grand geopolitical questions. It doesn't hurt I mostly agree with him on what the US should do here.

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

Sadly this seems to be why the west can’t respond properly to either Russia or China . We are so addicted with low prices that it hampers our ability to respond.

Would also help if we'd spent the past year expanding production instead of constricting it. Biden's foreign policy has been good but his domestic policy is a disaster across the board and this is an example.

This is a huge example :


https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496579280091951111?cxt=HHwWjsC5...

Keystone XL wasn't even going to be operational for another decade and was not going to import additional oil.  It was just a shorter and more efficient route for Phase I which already exists, importing that same oil over a longer route.  Furthermore, even if you+Crenshaw weren't lying, that oil did not disappear.  It just remains in Canada, which is on our side in this conflict.  A pipeline just moves oil from place to place, it does not *produce* oil.  If we had 830,000 extra barrels of oil coming in from Canada every day, then that would be 830,000 barrels fewer that Canada has, and maybe they'd be the ones importing from Russia instead of us.

It's very tiresome that Republicans have seized on this as their way to undercut Biden in a moment when we should be having national unity, but also very frustrating because it's based on misinforming people.  And you ought to be better than getting behind these lazy Fox News cheap shots at a time like this.

[YE]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?