Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Badger]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

Zelensky has been criminally incompetent. It's hard not to wonder if he's in league with the Russians at this point.

What evidence is there of that as opposed to the fact Ukraine is fundamentally outmatched militarily by Russia?

[John Dule]

Every time I see a deranged Forumlurker post I am confused but I see the avatar and expect something from Andriy but it's always more Forumlurker crap.

I find solace in knowing how much these comments will embarrass him after he hits puberty.

[StateBoiler]

Anti-war/pro-Ukraine rally in Berlin this evening.

Sorry to be an asshole, but why does that matter? Is a rally going to help Ukraine defend itself?

Helping inspire and embolden similar movements in Russia.

From the safety of Berlin?

Anyone that wants to actively stop Russia and do something of material value to do so, you know what to do and where to travel to. Everything else literally does not matter.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Mitt Romney was wrong in 2012, he remains wrong in 2022. China is clearly the biggest geopolitical foe and threat to the United States, whereas Russia is a regional threat to Europe, it is basically a negligible threat to the US itself.

Stated different, was Mitt Romney prescient in repeating old adages rooted in elderly nostalgia for Ronald Reagan and the Cold War Era? No, of course not, he was just appealing to dementia-ridden geezers in nursing homes who forgot that the Berlin Wall fell some 20 years before.

No. You're letting your political biases inform your thinking. China is a big threat to the U.S., there's a difference between that and what Obama said.

Barack Obama was correct: in the 1980s, what Mitt Romney said was accurate but, in 2012, China had cleared usurped the role that Russia once had when it was the USSR. Whether or not he explicitly invoked China is besides the point - Russia is only a regional power. Its post-imperial ambitions, however dangerous they might be to Europe, are basically limited to areas of Eurasia in close proximity to Russia. There is no Soviet-era desire to spread "world communism" or anything similar. Mitt Romney was playing on fears from this past era, not providing cogent analysis.

Even now, the intensity of the US response is partially driven by the desire to create a "penal code"/"grim trigger" to ward off a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. One country is actually our rival, the other is a rogue state of regional importance.

You're letting your political biases inform your thinking. That rogue state of regional importance has just created the largest war in Europe in 75 years and our country is tied by treaty into defending the sovereignty of most of the states of Europe.

Yes, yes - Russia is of regional importance. It poses a tremendous threat to Europe. The United States, of course, is separated from Europe by an ocean and is forced by its unique status as hegemon to be concerned about the world, not just one part of it. We are challenged by China, which vies for supremacy everywhere. Russia is chiefly concerned about its ability to pull various European countries into its orbit. As far as I can tell, there are no serious efforts to win power and influence in Africa or Latin America etc.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1496925260095967233?s=20&t=sVBQQ57u7a...

[StateBoiler]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

Zelensky has been criminally incompetent. It's hard not to wonder if he's in league with the Russians at this point.

What evidence is there of that as opposed to the fact Ukraine is fundamentally outmatched militarily by Russia?

Observers say the loss of the airport is critical and came much earlier than Ukraine expected:

The helo assault at Antanov Airport is bold, very bold.

Seems like a bit of a crazy and unnecessary risk. Suggests to me the Russians have made a very dim assessment of the Ukranian forces to think they could take and hold it, and will get relief soon enough by ground forces. Perhaps thinking Ukrainian defense and counters would be weak and slow due to major element of surprise.

Not really. I have zero doubts that the Russians fully have intel assets spread across Ukraine. The Russians would have real time intel on the Ukrainian forces deployed at the airport and what is available for call up. What is bold is how this threw Kiev for a loop. I would have expected several points to be taken before the Russians made a move on Kiev. Hitting it on the first day meant that the Ukrainians were not only physically not prepared to receive the assault but also psychologically not prepared. Also showed just how unprepared the Ukrainians are. Yeah, I would have been surprised too but I would also have a [rapid response force] ready to respond.

Standard doctrine. Seize an airfield by airborne/air assault. Bring in reinforcements by air landing. You can bring in a metric sh**t ton of equipment and vehicles in AN-124s & 225s. If you notice the Ukrainian air defense networks were early targets.

[WMS]

Also, where are all the anti-Imperialist leftists in this thread?

"Imperialism is when a country is EU-aligned. The more EU-aligned it is, the imperialister it is."

Speaking of government-level versions of that, the current count of Russia-supporting countries:

-Belarus has actually attacked Ukraine so is in a category of its own
-Syria, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and the Houthis in Yemen 100% openly support Russia
-Iran and China are a little more veiled in their statements but it’s clear they support Russia
-While I don’t have a link to a source yet it would be totally unsurprising if North Korea supports Russia
-I’ve read the Saudis are cooperating with Russia to increase oil prices but don’t have confirmation yet
-Since Wikipedia doesn’t have maps up yet of world reactions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but they do have one for the “recognition of independence of the two Donbas entities”, we can use this as a decent proxy.

-With the exception of some microstates all of Europe has condemned Russia except for - Omega trigger warning! - Republika Srpska and Serbia proper!

-There are still a lot of countries I am very curious about in regards to their stance.

Serbia can at least make the argument that Donbass is no different than Kosovo. I'm saying that to be more anti-Kosovo precendent than to be pro-Donbass independence.

What are Armenia and Kazakhstan saying?

I expect most of the "Rest of the non-Western World" to fall behind whatever the Chinese viewpoint is.

Serbia proper can say that and at least be consistent, but not RS.

Artsakh - what’s left of it - openly supports Russia. Not sure about Armenia itself, and Kazakhstan has been using vague weasel words to obscure their stance appears to have surprisingly condemned it.

And you may be right about the “Rest of the non-Western world”, but I don’t have information on that yet.

Oh, wait, Colombia supports Ukraine, along with Costa Rica, Guatemala, Georgia, and maybe Peru and Indonesia. Uruguay, Honduras, Mexico, Brazil, and India have been more mixed.

Columbia thanks to Venezuela are heavily tied into U.S. security thinking now. Georgia of course here supports the U.S.

Indonesia surprises me.

They have their own reasons to oppose countries invading and peeling off portions of other countries…

…plus they’re not big fans of China.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Some users on this forum defending Russia could go to the Olympics for mental gymnastics.

They'd lose massively, taking ibto account the atrocious pro-Russian posts I've seen on social media

[It’s so Joever]

Every time I see a deranged Forumlurker post I am confused but I see the avatar and expect something from Andriy but it's always more Forumlurker crap.

Deranged?
Ukraine is literally falling. Russia clearly will not be stopping here, and Biden’s measures don’t go nearly far enough to prevent future Russian aggression. The only thing deranged is looking at what’s happening in Kharkiv today and thinking that this will be the last of it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1496921478721327110

This is horrifying. Kabul all over again.

Not remotely comparable. Have a look at a map: Kiev is extremely vulnerable to an assault from the north and isn't far off being indefensible against a numerically superior aggressor.

[StateBoiler]

Mitt Romney was wrong in 2012, he remains wrong in 2022. China is clearly the biggest geopolitical foe and threat to the United States, whereas Russia is a regional threat to Europe, it is basically a negligible threat to the US itself.

Stated different, was Mitt Romney prescient in repeating old adages rooted in elderly nostalgia for Ronald Reagan and the Cold War Era? No, of course not, he was just appealing to dementia-ridden geezers in nursing homes who forgot that the Berlin Wall fell some 20 years before.

No. You're letting your political biases inform your thinking. China is a big threat to the U.S., there's a difference between that and what Obama said.

Barack Obama was correct: in the 1980s, what Mitt Romney said was accurate but, in 2012, China had cleared usurped the role that Russia once had when it was the USSR. Whether or not he explicitly invoked China is besides the point - Russia is only a regional power. Its post-imperial ambitions, however dangerous they might be to Europe, are basically limited to areas of Eurasia in close proximity to Russia. There is no Soviet-era desire to spread "world communism" or anything similar. Mitt Romney was playing on fears from this past era, not providing cogent analysis.

Even now, the intensity of the US response is partially driven by the desire to create a "penal code"/"grim trigger" to ward off a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. One country is actually our rival, the other is a rogue state of regional importance.

You're letting your political biases inform your thinking. That rogue state of regional importance has just created the largest war in Europe in 75 years and our country is tied by treaty into defending the sovereignty of most of the states of Europe.

Yes, yes - Russia is of regional importance. It poses a tremendous threat to Europe. The United States, of course, is separated from Europe by an ocean and is forced by its unique status as hegemon to be concerned about the world, not just one part of it. We are challenged by China, which vies for supremacy everywhere. Russia is chiefly concerned about its ability to pull various European countries into its orbit. As far as I can tell, there are no serious efforts to win power and influence in Africa or Latin America etc.

Look, I agree that China is our #1 threat and the AUKUS alliance legwork started by the Trump administration/finished by the Biden administration was the correct action to take. Since Obama made his comment Putin has annexed Crimea, destroyed Obama's and the West's plans in Syria, and now are wholesale invading Ukraine. It was a bad comment to make in exchange for laughs, and that quote is going to be in history texts students read 50 years from now.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1496922915954216962?s=20&t=sVBQQ57...

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

[It’s so Joever]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

While I don’t disagree, is that even possible?

[Mr. Illini]

Remember the outrage a couple months ago from many on this blog when Biden sent troops to Poland? Russia hit Lutsk last night right off the bat, which is ~50mi from the Polish border.

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1496922915954216962?s=20&t=sVBQQ57...

So much for the “Russia has a superior army” argument. All I’m seeing is them getting their asses handed back to them.

Neither the Ukrainian government nor the Russian government are reliable sources anymore on current developments of the war. I never heard of a belligerent in a shooting war reporting honestly on the war's developments.

[KaiserDave]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeff_hawn/status/1496928431539372036

[GeneralMacArthur]

Guys, we have a poll running on this right now and like 90% of Atlas agrees that China remains a bigger threat than Russia.  So you can stop wasting several pages of this thread trying to lionize Mitt Romney over a flippant exchange in a debate from a decade ago.

[President Johnson]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I’m glad Biden isn’t going to war with Russia

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1496922915954216962?s=20&t=sVBQQ57...

So much for the “Russia has a superior army” argument. All I’m seeing is them getting their asses handed back to them.

If the destruction of this force is correct, we should not be overly optimistic.
It is my understanding that the Russian force at the Hostomel airport, was a small-ish troop force that was dropped by plane (airborne unit) or flown-in by large helicopters.
Unfortunately, if a large Russian ground force makes it all the way down (from Belarus), then things will be massively worse for Ukrainian armed forces in and around Hostomel airport.

[jaichind]

US equities are close to break even on the day.  Amazing.

[TheReckoning]

Anyone wishing for a war of annihilation for the sake of “winning” is a psychopath, regardless of which side they want destroyed.

[KaiserDave]

Clarification: Hostomel Combat Ongoing

https://twitter.com/News_On_Ukraine/status/1496931338858991618

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1496922915954216962?s=20&t=sVBQQ57...

So much for the “Russia has a superior army” argument. All I’m seeing is them getting their asses handed back to them.

If the destruction of this force is correct, we should not be overly optimistic.
It is my understanding that the Russian force at the Hostomel airport, was a small-ish troop force that was dropped by plane (airborne unit) or flown-in by large helicopters.

The Kyiv Post on Twitter posted an hour and a half ago that Antonov International Airport in Hostomel is taken over by Russian forces, via Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to the head of the president's office.