Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1496851833549111306?t=4exQQlREwR_bfqAxhL2V6A...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1496851833549111306?t=4exQQlREwR_bfqAxhL2V6A...

US doesn’t share its border with Iraq

[jaichind]

I am baffled by the opposition of booting Russia from SWIFT from Germany and Italy. What the hell are we waiting for?

SWIFT is a payment system.  So if you cut Russia off from SWIFT you are really just saying Germany and Italy can no longer buy Russian energy.

That’d be the point. Russia needs Germany to buy its gas. Germany does need a Russian gas too, perhaps Biden can authorize more gas production in the United States? If NATO doesn’t go all in on sanctions Putin will face no consequences.

USA LNG costs more than Russian gas so who will make up the cost difference.  If it is the Germans then German business will push back. If it is USA them USA midterm voters will push back.  Also I am not sure if there are enough LNG terminals in Germany to make this work.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Kicking Russia out of SWIFT wouldn't make buying Russian gas impossible, it only would it make harder and probably more expensive.

[TheReckoning]

Anyone wishing for a war of annihilation for the sake of “winning” is a psychopath, regardless of which side they want destroyed.

Being contrarian all of the time is the laziest intellectual position imaginable. Just stop.

We have people like Forumlurker who literally want to send Russia back to the Stone Age and kill whoever they view as an enemy. Opposing this isn’t being a “contrarian,” it’s standing up for what’s right. What Russia is pulling right now is evil without a doubt, and Ukraine should have international support, but fantasizes about destruction aren’t right.

Forumlurker is a lunatic who speaks only for himself.

That doesn’t change the fact that you’re being ridiculous. Wanting Russia to lose an unjustified war of aggression is not wrong. Winning a war requires defeating the opposing forces. Wanting that is not wrong. There is nothing wrong at all with hoping that that occurs in this case. Does that mean that we should hope for war crimes or “annihilating Russia”? No. But unless you were specifically talking about Forumlurker nobody was saying that.

The problem with getting militaristic every single time a bad guy steps out of line is that violence would become the modus operandi of literally all world powers. Perpetual war helps no one and we have to be very careful how we approach these issues.

The more countries that jump into a conflict, the worse it becomes.

[jaichind]

Both the PRC and Russia have built up alternative payment messaging systems so on the medium run I suspect Russian can survive losing access to SWIFT but it will be very painful on the short run.

Couldn't Germany also connect to these alternative payment systems if they really needed to? Germany does lots of business with Russia and China, so I could see voices in favor of them doing that.

That would be the long term workaround.  But you cannot just change the payment flows and process overnight.  Russian and Germany can also go to a pre-SWIFT world and use letters of credit and such.  All this is very disruptive and for now no one in Germany wants to go there.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

Sadly this seems to be why the west can’t respond properly to either Russia or China . We are so addicted with low prices that it hampers our ability to respond.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1496851833549111306?t=4exQQlREwR_bfqAxhL2V6A...

Karlin is batshlt insane, but his Twitter feed the past few days has been a good look into the minds of hardcore Russian nationalists.

[Person Man]

Anyone wishing for a war of annihilation for the sake of “winning” is a psychopath, regardless of which side they want destroyed.

Being contrarian all of the time is the laziest intellectual position imaginable. Just stop.

We have people like Forumlurker who literally want to send Russia back to the Stone Age and kill whoever they view as an enemy. Opposing this isn’t being a “contrarian,” it’s standing up for what’s right. What Russia is pulling right now is evil without a doubt, and Ukraine should have international support, but fantasizes about destruction aren’t right.

Forumlurker is a lunatic who speaks only for himself.

That doesn’t change the fact that you’re being ridiculous. Wanting Russia to lose an unjustified war of aggression is not wrong. Winning a war requires defeating the opposing forces. Wanting that is not wrong. There is nothing wrong at all with hoping that that occurs in this case. Does that mean that we should hope for war crimes or “annihilating Russia”? No. But unless you were specifically talking about Forumlurker nobody was saying that.

The problem with getting militaristic every single time a bad guy steps out of line is that violence would become the modus operandi of literally all world powers. Perpetual war helps no one and we have to be very careful how we approach these issues.

The more countries that jump into a conflict, the worse it becomes.

That is, of course, if China sees this and sees weakness as a green light to go into Taiwan.

[Aurelius]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

Sadly this seems to be why the west can’t respond properly to either Russia or China . We are so addicted with low prices that it hampers our ability to respond.

Would also help if we'd spent the past year expanding production instead of constricting it. Biden's foreign policy has been good but his domestic policy is a disaster across the board and this is an example.

[It’s so Joever]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

Sadly this seems to be why the west can’t respond properly to either Russia or China . We are so addicted with low prices that it hampers our ability to respond.

And then you wonder why I attack America’s hyperindividualism.

[TheReckoning]

Anyone wishing for a war of annihilation for the sake of “winning” is a psychopath, regardless of which side they want destroyed.

Being contrarian all of the time is the laziest intellectual position imaginable. Just stop.

We have people like Forumlurker who literally want to send Russia back to the Stone Age and kill whoever they view as an enemy. Opposing this isn’t being a “contrarian,” it’s standing up for what’s right. What Russia is pulling right now is evil without a doubt, and Ukraine should have international support, but fantasizes about destruction aren’t right.

Forumlurker is a lunatic who speaks only for himself.

That doesn’t change the fact that you’re being ridiculous. Wanting Russia to lose an unjustified war of aggression is not wrong. Winning a war requires defeating the opposing forces. Wanting that is not wrong. There is nothing wrong at all with hoping that that occurs in this case. Does that mean that we should hope for war crimes or “annihilating Russia”? No. But unless you were specifically talking about Forumlurker nobody was saying that.

The problem with getting militaristic every single time a bad guy steps out of line is that violence would become the modus operandi of literally all world powers. Perpetual war helps no one and we have to be very careful how we approach these issues.

The more countries that jump into a conflict, the worse it becomes.

That is, of course, if China sees this and sees weakness as a green light to go into Taiwan.

Correct. I’m not saying the world just stand by and do nothing. Just that if you try to kill everyone who steps out of line… pretty soon, their won’t even be anyone to step out of line.

[jaichind]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1496851833549111306?t=4exQQlREwR_bfqAxhL2V6A...

US doesn’t share its border with Iraq

Say the US sent troops into Mexico or Canada as part of a long-planned incursion. How long would it take for them to destroy all their air defenses?

[Person Man]

Anyone wishing for a war of annihilation for the sake of “winning” is a psychopath, regardless of which side they want destroyed.

Being contrarian all of the time is the laziest intellectual position imaginable. Just stop.

We have people like Forumlurker who literally want to send Russia back to the Stone Age and kill whoever they view as an enemy. Opposing this isn’t being a “contrarian,” it’s standing up for what’s right. What Russia is pulling right now is evil without a doubt, and Ukraine should have international support, but fantasizes about destruction aren’t right.

Forumlurker is a lunatic who speaks only for himself.

That doesn’t change the fact that you’re being ridiculous. Wanting Russia to lose an unjustified war of aggression is not wrong. Winning a war requires defeating the opposing forces. Wanting that is not wrong. There is nothing wrong at all with hoping that that occurs in this case. Does that mean that we should hope for war crimes or “annihilating Russia”? No. But unless you were specifically talking about Forumlurker nobody was saying that.

The problem with getting militaristic every single time a bad guy steps out of line is that violence would become the modus operandi of literally all world powers. Perpetual war helps no one and we have to be very careful how we approach these issues.

The more countries that jump into a conflict, the worse it becomes.

That is, of course, if China sees this and sees weakness as a green light to go into Taiwan.

Correct. I’m not saying the world just stand by and do nothing. Just that if you try to kill everyone who steps out of line… pretty soon, their won’t even be anyone to step out of line.

That's why, I think our Government's approach to this aggression has been satisfactory. We can't live in a world where there is a constant strong drive for world domination.

[StateBoiler]

Anyone wishing for a war of annihilation for the sake of “winning” is a psychopath, regardless of which side they want destroyed.

Being contrarian all of the time is the laziest intellectual position imaginable. Just stop.

We have people like Forumlurker who literally want to send Russia back to the Stone Age and kill whoever they view as an enemy. Opposing this isn’t being a “contrarian,” it’s standing up for what’s right. What Russia is pulling right now is evil without a doubt, and Ukraine should have international support, but fantasizes about destruction aren’t right.

Forumlurker is a lunatic who speaks only for himself.

That doesn’t change the fact that you’re being ridiculous. Wanting Russia to lose an unjustified war of aggression is not wrong. Winning a war requires defeating the opposing forces. Wanting that is not wrong. There is nothing wrong at all with hoping that that occurs in this case. Does that mean that we should hope for war crimes or “annihilating Russia”? No. But unless you were specifically talking about Forumlurker nobody was saying that.

The problem with getting militaristic every single time a bad guy steps out of line is that violence would become the modus operandi of literally all world powers. Perpetual war helps no one and we have to be very careful how we approach these issues.

The more countries that jump into a conflict, the worse it becomes.

That is, of course, if China sees this and sees weakness as a green light to go into Taiwan.

Not necessarily Taiwan, but my expectation is the PLA does something in the next decade.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

A poll a few days ago showed that not even a third of Democrats believe America should play a major role in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and a majority believed it should play a minor role.
Rs were even less likely to support a muscular American role.
The American public doesn't care about the Ukraine conflict, until proven completely wrong otherwise. We sit one ocean and one continent away from it, when Ukraine is just a hop away from the Russian border.
Forumlurker is correct in that America just isn't prepared pyschologically to pay the economic cost of punishing Russia for this.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

I am pretty sure that you have no idea what you are talking about. You've been wrong about Putin's aims and ambitions in Ukraine, you failed to predict this invasion and now you're making pronouncements about "fear of something bad" being worse than "the bad thing" before we even understand the full extent of this war, its meaning, its length, duration, the effect of sanctions etc. The wise thing to do would be to listen and learn from people who aren't fools.

[Aurelius]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

The bad of Ukraine ceasing to exist as a sovereign nation far, far outweighs your portfolio going up slightly.

[MaxQue]

I am baffled by the opposition of booting Russia from SWIFT from Germany and Italy. What the hell are we waiting for?

My sense is that they don't want to "shoot the final bullet" at this moment already, but I think it's inevitably going to happen.

Get real. Your chancellor is just too afraid to offend his friend Gehrard Schroder.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

Sadly this seems to be why the west can’t respond properly to either Russia or China . We are so addicted with low prices that it hampers our ability to respond.

Would also help if we'd spent the past year expanding production instead of constricting it. Biden's foreign policy has been good but his domestic policy is a disaster across the board and this is an example.

This is a huge example :


https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496579280091951111?cxt=HHwWjsC5...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1496851833549111306?t=4exQQlREwR_bfqAxhL2V6A...

US doesn’t share its border with Iraq

Say the US sent troops into Mexico or Canada as part of a long-planned incursion. How long would it take for them to destroy all their air defenses?

Less than a day, if there is no consideration for civilians and US can just sent rockets everywhere.

[Aurelius]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

I am pretty sure that you have no idea what you are talking about. You've been wrong about Putin's aims and ambitions in Ukraine, you failed to predict this invasion and now you're making pronouncements about "fear of something bad" being worse than "the bad thing" before we even understand the full extent of this war, its meaning, its length, duration, the effect of sanctions etc. Shut up man.

It's jaichind. Good and bad for him is entirely based on its effect on his financial investments.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

I am pretty sure that you have no idea what you are talking about. You've been wrong about Putin's aims and ambitions in Ukraine, you failed to predict this invasion and now you're making pronouncements about "fear of something bad" being worse than "the bad thing" before we even understand the full extent of this war, its meaning, its length, duration, the effect of sanctions etc. The wise thing to do would be to listen and learn from people who aren't fools.

Jaichind's posts (a majority of them, anyway) have been insightful and a net good for this thread, and tbh, he adds more to this thread than a majority of posters do.
Lay off please.

[jaichind]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

The bad of Ukraine ceasing to exist as a sovereign nation far, far outweighs your portfolio going up slightly.

Hmmm .. just to be clear I want the US equity markets to go down.  In my last portfolio rebalance in late 2021 I have become very underweight equities.    I plan to be heavy intermediate fixed income late in 2022 so I am looking to get back into equities again in between that transition.  So for me it is ideal that US equities go down a lot, ideally bottoming out in March 2022.