Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

As an intermission to the regular programming, the nurse who took my blood the other day had a Russian accent, and we got talking. She grew up in the far north country near the Finland border, and her bother still lives there, and lives off the land through hunting and fishing to survive, and considers her a traitor for leaving Russia.

Anyway, after observing that Biden was a "vegetable" who was clueless about economics, she had a somewhat higher opinion of Putin. Why? Because Russia and its former republics need a strong man to rule over them because they are basically vicious savages, who without a ruthless autocrat to leash them, would basically all kill each other in internecine violence and war, until nothing was left but "rubble and rats."

She then said that it was just her opinion, and I told her she was certainly entitled to have her opinions, and that I found hers at once interesting and well, unusual. As I was leaving, we shook hands.

[Storr]

Seems reasonable, given a they're using a US DOD-like definition of disabled:https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1580183189309763584?s=20&t=7RVEf0CumLpu...

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1580105995665145856
Russia lost more men in less than a year then we did in our near decade in Nam

Although Russia for sure lost an insane amount of troops, I would still take Ukrainian figures with a grain of salt (the Russians don't even update their numbers anymore in public, which tells you how well this "special operation" is going). I'd be more inclined to believe American and British Intel publications. I read estimations from Western sources that Russia lost about 75k in personell, both wounded and killed. How many of them were actually killed in action is hard to estimate.

If the war goes on for another few months, especially with more untrained recruitment forces, actual casualties (deaths) surpassing the 58k we lost in 'Nam is highly plausible.

I really haven't investigated  how anyone tries to determine the numbers or the ratio between dead and wounded, but given what we've seen of Russia, their medical support is virtually nil, so the deaths really could be that high.   I saw some organization on twitter that estimated that Russia has lost 90,000 troops either to death, wounded to point of not be able to return, and captured/aol.  I'll post it later if I find it.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1580197706844102657?s=20&t=7RVEf0CumLpu...

[NOVA Green]

Russia outlines theory of Ukrainian involvement in the Kerch Bridge incident:

Moscow’s security services announced the arrests of eight people — including five Russian citizens — after the explosion that destroyed part of the strategic Crimean Bridge early Saturday.

In a statement, Russia’s FSB security service accused Ukraine’s military intelligence service of coordinating what it described as a “terrorist act” and blamed it on explosives hidden in the back of a cargo truck that detonated along the bridge. The FSB also claimed that three “citizens of Ukraine and Armenia” participated. When asked about the allegations, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs told the public broadcaster that the Russian investigation was “nonsense.”

In Moscow’s first detailed account of the events leading up to the explosion — a devastating and humiliating attack inflicted deep within Russian-controlled territory — officials outlined how they believe a 22-ton bomb came to be shipped out of the Ukrainian port of Odessa, before traveling a circuitous route into southern Russian via Bulgaria, Armenia and Georgia in the weeks before the blast. “The investigation continues and all organizers and accomplices, including foreigners, will be prosecuted in accordance with Russian law,” the FSB said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/12/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

[Person Man]

Seems reasonable, given a they're using a US DOD-like definition of disabled:https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1580183189309763584?s=20&t=7RVEf0CumLpu...

The Russian military has literally been decimated.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Gun artillery "ages" slower than other weapons, so using WW2-era howitzers is not too dire for Russia - but it is notable that they resorted to it before mobilisation was on the table. This source speculates it was done to manage ammunition stockpiles:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1580229326946959361

[DINGO Joe]

Seems reasonable, given a they're using a US DOD-like definition of disabled:https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1580183189309763584?s=20&t=7RVEf0CumLpu...

The Russian military has literally been decimated.

Yeah, that's the tweet I was looking for

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580230919306502151

Well, that looks like fun.

[DINGO Joe]

Woodbury says its all going swimmingly for them, though - who to believe?

Well for those on the Western side of the Dnipro, I certainly hope that it does end up that way for them.

[Storr]

Dvorichna is north of Kupyansk https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1580254098309656577?s=20&t=vtpnOWmno7OOzt...

Nice:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1580254115149774853?s=20&t=vtpnOWmno7OOzt...

[Dereich]

Pokrovske has fallen, there might be some defenders left in the outskirts. Either way, the road is now open towards Bakhmut. I take it the Russians will first try to secure Soledar (currently ongoing fighting) to the north before they make a move on Bakhmut itself.

The outskirts of Donetsk City is probably the most hellish place currently on the front. Taking Avdiivka might give the Russians and it's separatists some breathing room around the city, I suspect they'll advance north towards Kostiantynivka through the H20, but not before they try to secure Toretsk/New York, and it's surrounding settlements.

(Speculation)
Which the timing makes sense I guess? since the Wagnerovites are assaulting from Novoluhanske/Vuhlevirsk to the west side of the settlements, and the supply route to Bakhmut (Which is about to be assaulted soon) goes through Kostiantynivka.

Bakhmut:

https://twitter.com/marcushaukka/status/1580115223557439488

Surely Bakhmut is mere moments from falling and much progress has been made since July.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DemeryUK/status/1580266670194446338?s=20&t=vtpnOWmno7OOz...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580242495492890624?s=20&t=vtpnOW...

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/DemeryUK/status/1580266670194446338?s=20&t=vtpnOWmno7OOz...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580242495492890624?s=20&t=vtpnOW...

Unfortunate predicament dealing with these types of threats.

Acc to Western Intelligence, the Iranian suicide drone is very cheap, which is not a surprise considering it's a flying Dorito powered by a lawnmower engine.

The rockets being used to shoot them down are much costlier and in shorter supply.

I do however assume that in some time UA will innovate & develop other, more cost effective methods to deal with it.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/DemeryUK/status/1580266670194446338?s=20&t=vtpnOWmno7OOz...
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580242495492890624?s=20&t=vtpnOW...

Unfortunate predicament dealing with these types of threats.

Acc to Western Intelligence, the Iranian suicide drone is very cheap, which is not a surprise considering it's a flying Dorito powered by a lawnmower engine.

The rockets being used to shoot them down are much costlier and in shorter supply.

I do however assume that in some time UA will innovate & develop other, more cost effective methods to deal with it.

Kamikaze drones in general are cheap, but the Shahed-136 is likely a fair bit more expensive than your average loitering munition because it can travel hundreds of kilometres and packs a moderate payload. It's effectively a bargain bin cruise missile, and Iran may be charging a markup price for Russia to buy them.

What they are being intercepted with is not the exorbitantly priced Patriot missile*, but most likely an air-to-air missile from Ukraine's domestic stock (including Soviet and Polish-donated missiles). Given the Russian air force's reluctance to wage an air superiority campaign for the last few months, there can't be that many other uses for such munitions. Most Russian jets which have been shot down seemed to have been downed by ground-based AA rather than Ukraine's rather limited number of planes.

*But this is where your post is arguably most relevant. Calls for long-range, ground-based AD to fight poorly used Russian missiles ignore how expensive this kind of support would be - within the limited aid budgets set aside for Ukraine, there are more cost-effective expenditures than Patriot missiles.

[Virginiá]

*But this is where your post is arguably most relevant. Calls for long-range, ground-based AD to fight poorly used Russian missiles ignore how expensive this kind of support would be - within the limited aid budgets set aside for Ukraine, there are more cost-effective expenditures than Patriot missiles.

It's unfortunate for Ukraine that directed energy weapons are still in their infancy. I know they are integrating and might have already demonstrated the possible integration of a laser system into NASAMS, so they can save missiles for bigger threats. I expect this to be a staple of many air defense systems of the future.

[DINGO Joe]

Looks like the new troops have arrived

https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1580293815357042688

Maybe forgot to cover a thing or two in training

[Helsinkian]

Next time Azerbaijan tries to annex southern Armenia, I guess the world can follow Armenia's example and "abstain". What point is there in kowtowing to Moscow now when they have seen that CSTO is meaningless? Even the Russia lovers of Serbia voted to condemn.

https://twitter.com/patriot_singles/status/1580295767977119744

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tonight Macron promised France will send more SAMs and radars to Ukraine shortly. He also confirmed that a deal is in the works with Denmark in order to redirect 6 CAESARs that were going to be sold to it to instead go to Ukraine (though the timing on that is unclear).

[Badger]

Could Ukraine realistically take back Crimea

Realistic, as in militarily realistic?

Maybe, though fairly difficult.

Realistic, as in Putin won't use tactical nukes?

Very unlikely. Losing Crimea would guarantee the end of Putin's regime. Losing Kherson, Kharkov oblast etc. does not.

Coupled with the fact that most Crimean residents (even pre-2014) are ethnically Russian, and in favor of being part of the RF ever since Euromaidan, I don't see how it would be worth it.

Some Americans here mentioning they are just pro-RU Ukrainian separatists makes no sense if one is familiar with how ethnic identities work in some parts of the World. A Russian born in Ukraine is Russian. A Croat born in Bosnia is still Croat. Nationality and ethnicity are different in these parts compared to the US.

It pains me to say this, but conceding/recognizing Crimea as Russian territory in exchange for the return of all other Crimean land and all of their many thousands of kidnapped citizens might be a way to achieve peace once the Ukraine has beaten Russia out of the other occupied portions of the country. It's enough to save Putin enough face to declare the victory with their concession on Ukraine and not suffer a coup. Not that I don't wish to see him rotting in hell, I just wish to see Ukraine unconquered and at peace.

[2952-0-0]

Back in 2014, the majority of residents in the Crimea might have been sympathetic to Russia as a concept. But, eight years of Russian rule in reality, another year living in a war where Russia was humiliated, and the knowledge that Russia will be some sort of failed state for a generation, could well change attitudes. It could well be that Ukraine stops short of conquering the Crimea, but settles for a UN administration where a referendum could legitimize whatever happens next.

It wouldn't even be the first time where ethnic and political identities change as a result of misrule by the nation-state which supposedly represented them.

[Alben Barkley]

Next time Azerbaijan tries to annex southern Armenia, I guess the world can follow Armenia's example and "abstain". What point is there in kowtowing to Moscow now when they have seen that CSTO is meaningless? Even the Russia lovers of Serbia voted to condemn.

https://twitter.com/patriot_singles/status/1580295767977119744

Wow, even the Taliban voted against Russia.

[Torie]

Do the allies have any concerted plan to drive down the price of oil over time? I understand it will take time, with a mix of more green, more fracking, more nuke plants, taxes to not incentivizing domestic consumption as prices fall, whatever it takes to bankrupt the autocratic petro states. Standards of living need to temporarily fall to make the planet a safer place. That still leaves China to deal with, but one step at a time.

Yes, I clearly am not running for office. My agenda is one of pain without pain killers, much less opiates.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Next time Azerbaijan tries to annex southern Armenia, I guess the world can follow Armenia's example and "abstain". What point is there in kowtowing to Moscow now when they have seen that CSTO is meaningless? Even the Russia lovers of Serbia voted to condemn.

https://twitter.com/patriot_singles/status/1580295767977119744

Wow, even the Taliban voted against Russia.

Not too surprising. Who did they fight against in the 1980s, after all?

[Oryxslayer]

Could Ukraine realistically take back Crimea

Realistic, as in militarily realistic?

Maybe, though fairly difficult.

Realistic, as in Putin won't use tactical nukes?

Very unlikely. Losing Crimea would guarantee the end of Putin's regime. Losing Kherson, Kharkov oblast etc. does not.

Coupled with the fact that most Crimean residents (even pre-2014) are ethnically Russian, and in favor of being part of the RF ever since Euromaidan, I don't see how it would be worth it.

Some Americans here mentioning they are just pro-RU Ukrainian separatists makes no sense if one is familiar with how ethnic identities work in some parts of the World. A Russian born in Ukraine is Russian. A Croat born in Bosnia is still Croat. Nationality and ethnicity are different in these parts compared to the US.

It pains me to say this, but conceding/recognizing Crimea as Russian territory in exchange for the return of all other Crimean land and all of their many thousands of kidnapped citizens might be a way to achieve peace once the Ukraine has beaten Russia out of the other occupied portions of the country. It's enough to save Putin enough face to declare the victory with their concession on Ukraine and not suffer a coup. Not that I don't wish to see him rotting in hell, I just wish to see Ukraine unconquered and at peace.

It bears repeating that Ukraine's primary war aim is dignity and independence - the freedom to leave the Russian shadow and join NATO + EU + other European Institutions. This is the main reason why Russian command has still not abandoned the aim of regime change, even though they have no way to presently achieve that aim other than convincing the world to let them freeze the conflict like in 2014 to later come back for round 2. If there is a peace plan that is acceptable to both warring peoples and their leadership that allows Ukraine to achieve her goals, then I'm sure it would be pursued. Full territorial restoration to 2014 is a secondary aim.

Right now though Moscow refuses to accept a compromise that gives Kyiv her aims, so negotiation is pointless. Full reconquest therefore remains the only option - since it would accomplish the primary goal via a secondary route - and must be pursued with full vigor unless a new option presents itself.