2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Sol]

There are a lot of different ways to draw a second VRA district in Louisiana, so if LA Republicans want to keep Letlow they can sacrifice Johnson or Letlow instead. Do GOPers have a sense of who they'd want to keep?

"if LA Republicans want to keep Letlow they can sacrifice Letlow instead"

Did you mean to name somebody else?

Yes, Graves.

[Atlas Force]

There are a lot of different ways to draw a second VRA district in Louisiana, so if LA Republicans want to keep Letlow they can sacrifice Johnson or Letlow instead. Do GOPers have a sense of who they'd want to keep?

"if LA Republicans want to keep Letlow they can sacrifice Letlow instead"

Did you mean to name somebody else?

Yes, Graves.

Alright

[Gass3268]

There are a lot of different ways to draw a second VRA district in Louisiana, so if LA Republicans want to keep Letlow they can sacrifice Johnson or Letlow instead. Do GOPers have a sense of who they'd want to keep?

"if LA Republicans want to keep Letlow they can sacrifice Letlow instead"

Did you mean to name somebody else?

Yes, Graves.

Isn't Graves like up there in Republican leadership?

[Stuart98]

I think Mike Johnson is the logical Republican to axe if they above all else want to save Letlow, but I drew a map that draws out Clay Higgins just to see if it could be done.



DRA Link.

[Oryxslayer]

Those are pretty rough panels, especially the one hearing the mandamus action. Edith Jones and James Ho on the same panel? Yikes. On the other panel, Elrod is an ideologue. I don't know that much about Southwick except that he's quite conservative. I'm not expecting anything good from either panel. Hopefully, the groups suing Louisiana skip an en banc request and go straight to SCOTUS.

Yep, the hearing next week is delayed until the 5th has had it's say. Which is still happening in 10 days, and with Louisianas extremely late deadlines, since the 'primary ' is on election day,  the remedial path remains there. Especially since if it gets back to the Supreme court,  we just saw what they think about attempting to sidestep their judgement.

https://twitter.com/RMFifthCircuit/status/1707446899324620840?t=gWWzPIUcB1QbJgBE...

Law has no meaning at the 5th Circuit. As expected, they're going straight to SCOTUS:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1707895563813793958

Alito, who responds to these things from the 5th, has given the state until 10/10  to respond. Then it will be presented to the full body, similar to how the state of Alabamas appeal to halt the master was handled.  If the Milligan majority behaves like it did there, they will slap down the state for failing to comply the first time and affirm the plaintiffs. But this is Louisiana and that was Alabama,  so who knows if circumstances may change.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1710276913934033202?t=n9_pFRHp3Pp3NBcGX...

This is the 5th, but it isn't the panel who issued the hold on the lower court hearing.  Just like the lower hearing,  this hearing was Scheduled a while in advance,  but it's actions could be easily rendered moot by a higher court simply saying that they are doing it wrong.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Those are pretty rough panels, especially the one hearing the mandamus action. Edith Jones and James Ho on the same panel? Yikes. On the other panel, Elrod is an ideologue. I don't know that much about Southwick except that he's quite conservative. I'm not expecting anything good from either panel. Hopefully, the groups suing Louisiana skip an en banc request and go straight to SCOTUS.

Yep, the hearing next week is delayed until the 5th has had it's say. Which is still happening in 10 days, and with Louisianas extremely late deadlines, since the 'primary ' is on election day,  the remedial path remains there. Especially since if it gets back to the Supreme court,  we just saw what they think about attempting to sidestep their judgement.

https://twitter.com/RMFifthCircuit/status/1707446899324620840?t=gWWzPIUcB1QbJgBE...

Law has no meaning at the 5th Circuit. As expected, they're going straight to SCOTUS:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1707895563813793958

Alito, who responds to these things from the 5th, has given the state until 10/10  to respond. Then it will be presented to the full body, similar to how the state of Alabamas appeal to halt the master was handled.  If the Milligan majority behaves like it did there, they will slap down the state for failing to comply the first time and affirm the plaintiffs. But this is Louisiana and that was Alabama,  so who knows if circumstances may change.

So basically, if SCOTUS sees LA as a similar situation to AL, we'll get a new map with 2 black opportunity seats by 2024. If not, the map will just stay as is?

[Oryxslayer]

Those are pretty rough panels, especially the one hearing the mandamus action. Edith Jones and James Ho on the same panel? Yikes. On the other panel, Elrod is an ideologue. I don't know that much about Southwick except that he's quite conservative. I'm not expecting anything good from either panel. Hopefully, the groups suing Louisiana skip an en banc request and go straight to SCOTUS.

Yep, the hearing next week is delayed until the 5th has had it's say. Which is still happening in 10 days, and with Louisianas extremely late deadlines, since the 'primary ' is on election day,  the remedial path remains there. Especially since if it gets back to the Supreme court,  we just saw what they think about attempting to sidestep their judgement.

https://twitter.com/RMFifthCircuit/status/1707446899324620840?t=gWWzPIUcB1QbJgBE...

Law has no meaning at the 5th Circuit. As expected, they're going straight to SCOTUS:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1707895563813793958

Alito, who responds to these things from the 5th, has given the state until 10/10  to respond. Then it will be presented to the full body, similar to how the state of Alabamas appeal to halt the master was handled.  If the Milligan majority behaves like it did there, they will slap down the state for failing to comply the first time and affirm the plaintiffs. But this is Louisiana and that was Alabama,  so who knows if circumstances may change.

So basically, if SCOTUS sees LA as a similar situation to AL, we'll get a new map with 2 black opportunity seats by 2024. If not, the map will just stay as is?

Well the 5th could also just deny the state's appeal right here. The panel who heard the case today is responsible for the Preliminary Injunction, not a forthcoming full trial in the lower court. A full trial after a successful PI in these situations doesn't change things, but a PI can fail but a case succeed. There's also of course the issue that this panel is not the same panel who halted the PI hearing,  nor is it the full 5th.

It's all confusing since multiple courts are wading into the same case at the same time.

You can read here in the live thread about the trial today, but the judges don't seem fully sympathetic to the state. King is the Carter appointment,  the others are both Bush.

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1710316553911095669?t=S2tk6C0reHmM_SdbRvlDYQ&am...

[GALeftist]

Interestingly, although there was a big fight over Southwick's confirmation, he's afaik the least hackish GOP judge on the Fifth Circuit (low bar but still). Would expect him to be the swing vote here

[Stuart98]

In light of the disastrous rural black turnout on Saturday I think Shreveport-Baton Rouge is definitely better than Monroe-Lafayette-Baton Rouge.

[Tintrlvr]

If you do that I think you should work to put LaPlace in the NOLA district to keep its black percentage up to help justify the racial split. Although that would probably make the map messier elsewhere (fitting one district perfectly north of the Shreveport-Baton Rouge district is nice), so might not be a worthwhile tradeoff.

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1715082394691059961
Wait, so basically district court schedules hearing -> circuit court cancels hearing -> supreme court declines to cancel cancellation -> presumably district court schedules another hearing? What's to prevent this from repeating ad infinitum until Purcell becomes relevant?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1715082394691059961
Wait, so basically district court schedules hearing -> circuit court cancels hearing -> supreme court declines to cancel cancellation -> presumably district court schedules another hearing? What's to prevent this from repeating ad infinitum until Purcell becomes relevant?

FWIW this order has no noted dissents and a Justice Jackson concurrence emphasizing that she expects the litigation to be resolved before 2024 Purcell issues.  So this isn't a 6/3 or 5/4 issue where they lost Kavanaugh on some technical difference from the Alabama case.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1715082394691059961
Wait, so basically district court schedules hearing -> circuit court cancels hearing -> supreme court declines to cancel cancellation -> presumably district court schedules another hearing? What's to prevent this from repeating ad infinitum until Purcell becomes relevant?

Does this make a redraw more or less likely?

[politicallefty]

[tweet][tweet]

Wait, so basically district court schedules hearing -> circuit court cancels hearing -> supreme court declines to cancel cancellation -> presumably district court schedules another hearing? What's to prevent this from repeating ad infinitum until Purcell becomes relevant?

Does this make a redraw more or less likely?

I don't think it makes any difference one way or the other overall. As for whether or not it can be done before the election next year, anything that draws out the process reduces that likelihood. Those arguing for a redraw do seem to have one major advantage in a state like Louisiana versus any other. That is its unique jungle primary. Louisiana has one of the latest filing deadlines in the country due to the fact that the November general election is functionally a primary for any race where no one gets >50%. That should allow for more time before the Purcell principle becomes an issue.

[Stuart98]

In light of the disastrous rural black turnout on Saturday I think Shreveport-Baton Rouge is definitely better than Monroe-Lafayette-Baton Rouge.

Mike Johnson's election as house speaker likely rules a map like this out; even in a map handed down by the court I don't see them being willing to take the heat for drawing out the speaker of the house.

[Sol]

Mike Johnson's election as house speaker likely rules a map like this out; even in a map handed down by the court I don't see them being willing to take the heat for drawing out the speaker of the house.

I assume Letlow would just step aside for him? Though yeah, they probably don't do this.

[Stuart98]

Mike Johnson's election as house speaker likely rules a map like this out; even in a map handed down by the court I don't see them being willing to take the heat for drawing out the speaker of the house.

I assume Letlow would just step aside for him? Though yeah, they probably don't do this.

Maybe, but the 5th here is about two thirds her territory and only a third Johnson's.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In light of the disastrous rural black turnout on Saturday I think Shreveport-Baton Rouge is definitely better than Monroe-Lafayette-Baton Rouge.

Mike Johnson's election as house speaker likely rules a map like this out; even in a map handed down by the court I don't see them being willing to take the heat for drawing out the speaker of the house.

Ehhh, Johnson is a freak accident and everyone knows it.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1718033339360096402?t=OCYNMaT2TculqQksrGrfVA&am...

This is the resolution to the cancelation panel and the Supreme Court. The 5ths separate hearing on the viability of the PI remains unresolved yet.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1723082352505590013?t=LnhhgbVYBelH-RHHrar...

This seems as clear, concise,  and definitive that it could be.  As is usual these days, there is extensive citations of Milligan. And the map's coming asap which is nice. We should expect the only choice to be Letlow, with Johnson and Scalise in high positions.

[Roll Roons]

Won't the LA legislature just do the same thing they did in AL where they keep stalling by submitting maps that clearly don't meet the standard until the courts finally have to appoint a special master?

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/ByPiperHutch/status/1723094500577247373

[Nyvin]

Won't the LA legislature just do the same thing they did in AL where they keep stalling by submitting maps that clearly don't meet the standard?

Federal courts are only required to turn over authority to redraw the map back to the state legislature a single time.   

If the legislature fails to comply with the court order the court can give them another chance but they're not obligated to and usually don't bother.

Example being Alabama Republicans only submitting a single map before the court appointed the special master.

[Oryxslayer]

Won't the LA legislature just do the same thing they did in AL where they keep stalling by submitting maps that clearly don't meet the standard?

The obvious thing is that running out the clock is extremely hard in Louisiana cause filing deadlines and congressional campaigning officially starts very deep into the cycle, in July and September. A side effect of the jungle primaries being held on Election day.



Which is why according to the order, it doesn't matter if they do nothing or go against the spirit of the law. The case  itself, not the PI which this resolves, is in the district court where the plaintiffs already won in the pretrial PI. They pass a bad map or don't do anything, that court implements a master map after a quick case to be resolved in favor of the plaintiffs. This is the 5th observing long-standing federalism protocols and giving the mapping parties a attempt to do things on their own, before courts step in.