2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Del Tachi]

Graves is screwed, which was of course Landry's preferred outcome.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/ByPiperHutch/status/1747039115097395694

It’s hard to tell but does 1 take in some heavily D precincts along the New Orleans waterfront? Or are the areas it takes in all basically 0 population or Republican leaning

I think thats just Lakeview, the water precinct, and the Bayou precincts in the far east for road connectivity from the bridge to the south suburbs.

Ye that’s sort of what I thought too, but the border between 1 and 2 looked a little rough along the lake even in the more liberal/black parts of New Orleans- it might just be image compression.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I'm glad they're not drawing out Julia Letlow. I like her. I don't agree with a lot of her views, but I tolerate them and respect her for being a young single mother who went to Congress after her elected husband tragically died of Covid before he could take office (and the fact that she tried to combat vaccine hesitancy among Republicans). She's a quiet and hard-working member of Congress who you can tell is in it to get things done for her constituents and not be a bombthrower.

Question though - if Graves runs against her in the primary for the 5th, could he have a shot? Letlow's district will be gaining a good amount of Graves's political base in southern Baton Rouge and the Livingston Parish area. That's got to be a significant chunk of the primary electorate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm glad they're not drawing out Julia Letlow. I like her. I don't agree with a lot of her views, but I tolerate them and respect her for being a young single mother who went to Congress after her elected husband tragically died of Covid before he could take office (and the fact that she tried to combat vaccine hesitancy among Republicans). She's a quiet and hard-working member of Congress who you can tell is in it to get things done for her constituents and not be a bombthrower.

Question though - if Graves runs against her in the primary for the 5th, could he have a shot? Letlow's district will be gaining a good amount of Graves's political base in southern Baton Rouge and the Livingston Parish area. That's got to be a significant chunk of the primary electorate.

Honestly underrated political divide is people who came to Congress in good faith to be genuine vs people who came to Congress for their own self-interests.

Also yes she would certainly be vulnerable given many of Graves areas are higher turnout too. Overall though, the primary prolly comes down to who more prominent Republicans throw their support behind, and that’ll prolly be Letlow.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/mattmxhn/status/1747306144035414283

[Oryxslayer]

I'm glad they're not drawing out Julia Letlow. I like her. I don't agree with a lot of her views, but I tolerate them and respect her for being a young single mother who went to Congress after her elected husband tragically died of Covid before he could take office (and the fact that she tried to combat vaccine hesitancy among Republicans). She's a quiet and hard-working member of Congress who you can tell is in it to get things done for her constituents and not be a bombthrower.

Question though - if Graves runs against her in the primary for the 5th, could he have a shot? Letlow's district will be gaining a good amount of Graves's political base in southern Baton Rouge and the Livingston Parish area. That's got to be a significant chunk of the primary electorate.

Honestly underrated political divide is people who came to Congress in good faith to be genuine vs people who came to Congress for their own self-interests.

Also yes she would certainly be vulnerable given many of Graves areas are higher turnout too. Overall though, the primary prolly comes down to who more prominent Republicans throw their support behind, and that’ll prolly be Letlow.

Usually in incumbent vs incumbent primaries, its just a case of who retains more of their former district. While prominent party endorsements and money can effect things, especially Trump support for example in the AL-01 primary as both incumbents know, the race does start out slanted towards the  incumbent with a bigger continuity. In both instances so far there are more Republicans coming from the 5th than the 6th into the new seat. Additionally, Graves's former seats more or less track with the BR Media market, so his profile isn't that apparent elsewhere in the state, which is again where a majority of Republicans reside.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ByPiperHutch/status/1747317428843860185?t=n13b0riivW0s0fAZP_...

Johnson ways in. As we saw with Santos, his position of leadership now puts him in a position where he must count votes just like McCarthy did. He represents the other side of the special session which still could emerge, that is to pass nothing and then lose on the merits in 3 months.

A lot of actions so far suggest the state GOP knows they can't win, and so would prefer to choose who gets axed rather then punt. Given Graves's ties to the old leadership, maybe Johnson is being a double face and has to oppose it publicly but privately is in support of preserving Letlow. But we won't know anything until bills get votes.

https://twitter.com/RepClayHiggins/status/1747330090940133444?t=UX3A3RsnZXrC8nYA...

Meanwhile Higgins seems to on board,  giving further support to the idea Johnson just had to say that cause he has to.

[Oryxslayer]

Other not previously mentioned Maps on the state site right now:

SB1 Supreme Court (Pressly, SD38, R)



SB2 Supreme Court (Pressly, SD38, R)



SB4 Congress (Price, SD02, D). This is the former Fairfax report plaintiff map



SB6 & 7. 6 is a proposed amendment to increase the court from 7 to 9. (Seabaugh, SD31, R) Note that the Court District plaintiffs have previously said that 3 seats would be needed to resolve their complaints under hypothetical expansion proposals, this only has the two.



SB10 Congress (Carter, SD07, D)



HB2 Congress (Carter Sr, HD34, D)



HB1 & 3 Supreme Courts. Similar to SB6 and 7, one is an amendment to increase the court to 9. This one has 3 majority AA districts. (Carter Sr, HD34, D)



HB5 Congress is once again the Fairfax report map. (Marcelle, HD61, D)

HB8 Supreme Court (Johnson, HD27, R) This is the map previously proposed by the 5 members of the Court who asked for a redrawing of their districts.



HB15 Supreme Court (Carter Sr, HD34, D) Same map as HB8

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Why do Landry and Graves hate each other?

[Oryxslayer]

Why do Landry and Graves hate each other?

Graves backed Waguespack to the hilt in the 2023 Gov race, almost sending things to a runoff.

Though I think it goes even further back. Landry was elected in the 2010 wave to then LA03, the district soon dismantled after the Katrina losses. A piece of the district basically went to every neighboring seat, forcing him to run and lose the race vs Boustany in the new LA03 which was mostly the old LA07. At the time it was well known LA06 congressman Cassidy was running for Senate in 2014. I don't know the inner workings of LA politics back then, but it seems like Landry getting axed as the freshman back then with no off ramp or say a LA06 that allowed him to come back in 2014 may have left some scars. Especially since Graves at the time was a insider staffer in both State and Washington politics and likely knew the same facts of the situation.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ByPiperHutch/status/1747381243342119188?t=Ucoq50zYNABXcm2kRo...

https://twitter.com/ByPiperHutch/status/1747383323746263453?t=T-kNYTe96CaZWCfF3d...

https://twitter.com/ByPiperHutch/status/1747388361147371984?t=-Ez-OhHhzBQ5N3FvA8...

https://twitter.com/ByPiperHutch/status/1747391741081137419?t=POQ3sOz4Uc-RU8aaVO...

Committee transcripts on the Womack Diagonal district.

[DrScholl]

The absurdity of protecting Letlow because she is the only woman in the delegation. Not that it much matters to me which Republican gets the cut but that really is an example of identity politics that serves no purpose.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The absurdity of protecting Letlow because she is the only woman in the delegation. Not that it much matters to me which Republican gets the cut but that really is an example of identity politics that serves no purpose.

It’s just an excuse to cut Graves, who is a political enemy of Landry’s

[DrScholl]

The absurdity of protecting Letlow because she is the only woman in the delegation. Not that it much matters to me which Republican gets the cut but that really is an example of identity politics that serves no purpose.

It’s just an excuse to cut Graves, who is a political enemy of Landry’s

It's most certainly an excuse, it's just weird seeing Republicans vocally support what is essentially affirmative action when they spend so much time railing against it.

[Nyvin]

The LA-6 on the Womack map is Biden+19.3%.   That's gotta be at least close to the most Democratic congressional district that can be drawn in Louisiana that doesn't include New Orleans and is an at least somewhat sane map

[Skill and Chance]

The absurdity of protecting Letlow because she is the only woman in the delegation. Not that it much matters to me which Republican gets the cut but that really is an example of identity politics that serves no purpose.

It’s just an excuse to cut Graves, who is a political enemy of Landry’s

It's most certainly an excuse, it's just weird seeing Republicans vocally support what is essentially affirmative action when they spend so much time railing against it.

On race/ethnicity, yes, but this cut differently.  Many Republicans (particularly Southern Republicans) believe women and men are fundamentally different and ideally should be treated more differently than current culture allows.

[Stuart98]

The LA-6 on the Womack map is Biden+19.3%.   That's gotta be at least close to the most Democratic congressional district that can be drawn in Louisiana that doesn't include New Orleans and is an at least somewhat sane map

https://twitter.com/Stuart98_/status/1747406344465133980?t=joaShghO4B99D8zrL9W_m...
Biden +23.3

[Sol]

The absurdity of protecting Letlow because she is the only woman in the delegation. Not that it much matters to me which Republican gets the cut but that really is an example of identity politics that serves no purpose.

It’s just an excuse to cut Graves, who is a political enemy of Landry’s

It's most certainly an excuse, it's just weird seeing Republicans vocally support what is essentially affirmative action when they spend so much time railing against it.

It seems like people also just straight up like Letlow better, which makes sense; she has a moving personal story and if you're a Republican she seems like a potential rising star. Blue avs on here seemed pretty unhappy with the prospect of her losing office when this decision first came down but seem much less unhappy about Graves.

[Skill and Chance]

They also appear to be abolishing the famous jungle primary in favor of closed R/D primaries in March and a GE decided by a traditional plurality without a runoff.  Wow.

[TML]

They also appear to be abolishing the famous jungle primary in favor of closed R/D primaries in March and a GE decided by a traditional plurality without a runoff.  Wow.

I was looking forward to an occasion where Senate control would officially be decided by a runoff in a Louisiana Senate race (even though I'm well aware of which party would be favored in such a scenario during the current political climate), so this development is somewhat unfortunate on that front.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

They also appear to be abolishing the famous jungle primary in favor of closed R/D primaries in March and a GE decided by a traditional plurality without a runoff.  Wow.

Good. The jungle primary is stupid.

[Skill and Chance]

They also appear to be abolishing the famous jungle primary in favor of closed R/D primaries in March and a GE decided by a traditional plurality without a runoff.  Wow.

Good. The jungle primary is stupid.

It's questionable, but having runoff is smart.  Whenever democracies get commandeered by crazy people, it's usually by a plurality.

[Skill and Chance]

We're getting Shreveport to BR LFG!!!!

Legitimately has long been my preferred option for a second AA seat for years cause you are following the river. A clear COI compared to the L or the BR octopus. Also in this situation, protects the Speaker by yanking out the uber-AA precincts like how LA-02 does now with BR. Though once it was announced that they were looking at screwing Graves, I explored the options and found that the diagonal actually made the most sense if you want that outcome and a 50%+1 VAP seat. Obviously, compared to how it's drawn by the legislator, it can be neater, and IMO the GOP seats should be neater to prevent compactness allegations:

How can this district be constitutional when 2010's VA-03 was unconstitutional?  This is just ridiculous.  The almost-all BR version preferred by the lower house looks so much better and likely meets the VRA standard.

[Oryxslayer]

Senate passed Landrey backed msp 27-11

[GALeftist]

We're getting Shreveport to BR LFG!!!!

Legitimately has long been my preferred option for a second AA seat for years cause you are following the river. A clear COI compared to the L or the BR octopus. Also in this situation, protects the Speaker by yanking out the uber-AA precincts like how LA-02 does now with BR. Though once it was announced that they were looking at screwing Graves, I explored the options and found that the diagonal actually made the most sense if you want that outcome and a 50%+1 VAP seat. Obviously, compared to how it's drawn by the legislator, it can be neater, and IMO the GOP seats should be neater to prevent compactness allegations:

How can this district be constitutional when 2010's VA-03 was unconstitutional?  This is just ridiculous.  The almost-all BR version preferred by the lower house looks so much better and likely meets the VRA standard.

I am not unsympathetic to this argument but idk who would sue.