2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Oryxslayer]

HB8 Supreme Court (Johnson, HD27, R) This is the map previously proposed by the 5 members of the Court who asked for a redrawing of their districts.

Also, for the Supreme Court, this map passed the house on Wednesday with a large Bipartisan supermajority and it seemingly passed should Senate today but the gov site lacks the vote scheduling atm.

This is the map proposed by the 5 members of the Supreme Court to redraw their lines and resolve the lawsuit against their district lines. The legislature seems to have deferred with minimal objections to their authority.

So apparently the session actually ended even though this map passed the house, passed third reading and was teed up in the senate, and had more sponsors in both chambers than I can list? Look for it to reemerge when the legislature reconvenes.

[politicallefty]

I think this Congressional map is designed to get SCOTUS to strike it down. A similar district was struck down in the 90s (and I'm not referring to the infamous "Z" district).

[Mr.Phips]

I think this Congressional map is designed to get SCOTUS to strike it down. A similar district was struck down in the 90s (and I'm not referring to the infamous "Z" district).

Strike it down and order a more compact black majority district to be drawn?

[Oryxslayer]

I think this Congressional map is designed to get SCOTUS to strike it down. A similar district was struck down in the 90s (and I'm not referring to the infamous "Z" district).

I doubt it. The single biggest reason is that the Trial Court would do that. But beyond that,  it's not that hard to understand how we got here if you follow the thought process:

1) Louisiana is ordered by the 5th to conduct redistricting.  They could ignore this, since the 5th vacated the PI given the lack of urgency, but the Trial Court would just find them guilty in a full March Trial and impose a master map.

1.5) Get angry that you are going to lose no matter what, since Purcell can't reasonably apply to a November jungle primary state, and plan to do away with it.  After all, there are other lawsuits against the legislative maps.

2) The court has already released a master "Template" map, the L shaped Fairfax report.  Are you fine with cutting Letlow?

3) We would prefer not to lose Letlow,  so we must draw our own map. L shape option is out.

4) Since the 5th is hearing a case on coalition seats Right Now, and will probably force SCOTUS to slap them yet again, let's not draw seats under 50% BVAP. Even though the threshold for performance is below that - way below in NOLA, we don't want to give the court a reason for the L. So the "BR blob" south-of-the-state only version is out.

5) That leaves us with the Red River diagonal.  However,  we want two northern based White districts,  especially since one is the Speaker.  So we can't really draw the most sensible diagonal,  since both White districts need ways out of the north and can't be locked in.

6) Since Johnson is the most hesitant about the process,  let's remove any danger from his district as well. Take all the Dem voters for the New seat, and put as many dissonant Republicans elsewhere.


So there's two questions whether the seat would get scrutinized for racial gerrymandering.  The first is that none of the decisions look at things by race more than is necessary. Everything is about (backroom) politics,  and the Supreme Court has said that is fine. Now obviously untangling race from politics is hard in the southern states, what is a racial gerrymander and what is a political one. But here the prominent actors laid their cards on the table, which we have tracked here, perhaps to prove that their actions were political and personal.

The second question is if the diagonal design is just inherently uncompact and can only always be explained by race. This would just mean every diagonal is a racial gerrymander. Now IMO I think no cause there are COIs here, especially when compared to the alternatives, but that's my opinion.  Admittingly the legislature didn't draw the most sensible diagonal for political reasons of protecting Johnson,  and that's where a lot of the issues stem from. Long districts aren't inherently evil either. Look at the illegally cut FL05, or the new AL02. (EDIT or even LA02. Going to EBR was illegal but NOLA + the River Parishes/Cancer Alley areas makes more sense then a whiter NOLA only seat) We also have plenty of minority districts that become uncompact because of political purposes in Texas mainly,  but also in the Midwestern states at various previous points.

 IMO the main sin of the 90s map is not the design, as you can see on the previous page, but the decision to cut 12/15  parishes and do so in extremely racially selective ways. Thats what makes it similar to the old orlando-facing FL05s, NC12, VA03, and numerous more. The new map cuts 6/10 and none are exactly purely racial in nature. That's before we talk about how Lafayette , EBR, and Rapides are cut under all three general designs, sometimes in more apparently racial ways, leaving us with only three cuts semi-unique to the diagonal.  But that's just my opinion,  and the court will have the final word.

[politicallefty]

I think this Congressional map is designed to get SCOTUS to strike it down. A similar district was struck down in the 90s (and I'm not referring to the infamous "Z" district).

Strike it down and order a more compact black majority district to be drawn?

It can be done quite easily.

As to Oryx's post (and I do apologize for having a short response to a long and well-thought-out post), it will ultimately come down to what Justice Kavanaugh thinks. As far as the reason to draw out the process, that's what parties will do when their back is to the wall. If they can delay a second VRA district until 2026 (or later), Republicans will take that option without hesitation.

[Vosem]

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1748132861868130592

So did the state of Louisiana as a whole, actually. 2008 was a localized Republican mini-wave there, partially because it was at a local nadir of population in Orleans Parish (basically everyone who had left post-Katrina had left, but people hadn't really started returning yet), and partially because anger at the Democratic-controlled state government over the Katrina response took a while to really crystallize. McCain was the single strongest 21st-century Republican presidential nominee in Louisiana (the only state where that's true). The GOP also gained 2 US House seats in 2008 and had a very strong result in Louisiana in the off-year 2007 election (gaining in both houses of the state legislature -- though not taking either yet -- and flipping the positions of Governor, Attorney General, and state Treasurer).

Here's a 2008-->2020 swing map -- Louisiana stands out!

[ProgressiveModerate]

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1748132861868130592

So did the state of Louisiana as a whole, actually. 2008 was a localized Republican mini-wave there, partially because it was at a local nadir of population in Orleans Parish (basically everyone who had left post-Katrina had left, but people hadn't really started returning yet), and partially because anger at the Democratic-controlled state government over the Katrina response took a while to really crystallize. McCain was the single strongest 21st-century Republican presidential nominee in Louisiana (the only state where that's true). The GOP also gained 2 US House seats in 2008 and had a very strong result in Louisiana in the off-year 2007 election (gaining in both houses of the state legislature -- though not taking either yet -- and flipping the positions of Governor, Attorney General, and state Treasurer).

Here's a 2008-->2020 swing map -- Louisiana stands out!

Yeah I remember making this a while back too, and I was pretty shocked.

Some other things I would add in additional to your point -

Obama 2008 honestly did pretty bad at the time for a Presidential Dem in the Southeast US mainly cause of how rural white voters swung hard right. If one looks at the 2004-2008 swing map of LA, generally Obama improved in counties with notable black populations while losing ground everywhere else. By 2008, many rural white areas in the southeast were already so red they couldn't get that much redder over the next 16 years.

Another factor too is LA actually has a decent number of urban/suburban white places where Dems have made gains over the past decade.

And finally the state overall is getting blacker. A lot of communities that were already heavily black have gotten blacker, and are expanding.



Here's the 2008-2020 LA swing map at the precinct level.

[Oryxslayer]

Map signed by Landry

[Frodo]

Congressional Black Caucus: New Louisiana maps a ‘win for Black voters’

[Oryxslayer]

Several White GOP voters today (with the support of Graves) filed their own a Racial gerrymandering claim against the legislatures map. This very well may mean the legislature's map is deemed insufficient by the trial court when it reconvenes and imposes their own more visually appealing L shape, just so that these guys have no case when it does get moving much further down the road. If so, the legislature tried their best to protect who they wanted, but would be brought down by the racists who want to die on their hill.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1755003069824217495

[politicallefty]

That doesn't preclude another challenge from a different party. However, anything of the sort would almost certainly need to start from scratch. It appears extremely likely that this new map will be in place for the election this year.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1755725527229305028?t=rfqvpv2ACHkGCNkrn...

Several things:

This is separate from the congressional suit in it's entirely.

The plaintiffs alledged that an appropriate 1/3 of seats should be majority minority.
 
This will likely be fought much harder than the congressional plans, given whose jobs are at stake, and this is only the first court decision on the issue.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1755725527229305028?t=rfqvpv2ACHkGCNkrn...

Several things:

This is separate from the congressional suit in it's entirely.

The plaintiffs alledged that an appropriate 1/3 of seats should be majority minority.
 
This will likely be fought much harder than the congressional plans, given whose jobs are at stake, and this is only the first court decision on the issue.

In the context of a safe state, the veto override threshold is likely all that matters.  Wouldn't making exactly 1/3 of the seats as ironclad Dem as possible be optimal for GOP policy goals in the long run?  Unless there are other state constitutional restrictions that would prevent them from distributing R voters evenly between the other 2/3rds of the seats?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1755725527229305028?t=rfqvpv2ACHkGCNkrn...

Several things:

This is separate from the congressional suit in it's entirely.

The plaintiffs alledged that an appropriate 1/3 of seats should be majority minority.
 
This will likely be fought much harder than the congressional plans, given whose jobs are at stake, and this is only the first court decision on the issue.

In the context of a safe state, the veto override threshold is likely all that matters.  Wouldn't making exactly 1/3 of the seats as ironclad Dem as possible be optimal for GOP policy goals in the long run?  Unless there are other state constitutional restrictions that would prevent them from distributing R voters evenly between the other 2/3rds of the seats?

Well right now they have the threshold and are not likely want to lose it. And complying will likely mean losing it in at least the state House, since you cannot fully deny the White NOLA libs at least one seat there.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1757915723509403952?t=rXSDTIFUD94CVusycahnUQ&am...

A bold request,  since a huge part of the legislature would be up if new lines get implemented.  Since the fight seems to only have started,  I doubt this ends up as part of the resolution,  since delays will push us close to the election.  But it will be interesting if it did.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1755725527229305028?t=rfqvpv2ACHkGCNkrn...

Several things:

This is separate from the congressional suit in it's entirely.

The plaintiffs alledged that an appropriate 1/3 of seats should be majority minority.
 
This will likely be fought much harder than the congressional plans, given whose jobs are at stake, and this is only the first court decision on the issue.

In the context of a safe state, the veto override threshold is likely all that matters.  Wouldn't making exactly 1/3 of the seats as ironclad Dem as possible be optimal for GOP policy goals in the long run?  Unless there are other state constitutional restrictions that would prevent them from distributing R voters evenly between the other 2/3rds of the seats?

Well right now they have the threshold and are not likely want to lose it. And complying will likely mean losing it in at least the state House, since you cannot fully deny the White NOLA libs at least one seat there.

That was my thought, too: 1/3 of seats as black-opportunity means at minimum 1/3 + 1 Democratic seats as it’s not possible to draw no white Democratic seats in NOLA.

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1758092089806512238?t=tQdNMil7y5S2oX2rSjLhxQ&...

A bold request,  since a huge part of the legislature would be up if new lines get implemented.  Since the fight seems to only have started,  I doubt this ends up as part of the resolution,  since delays will push us close to the election.  But it will be interesting if it does.

What is this tweet supposed to be about? I'm seeing stuff about an UK special election.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1758092089806512238?t=tQdNMil7y5S2oX2rSjLhxQ&...

A bold request,  since a huge part of the legislature would be up if new lines get implemented.  Since the fight seems to only have started,  I doubt this ends up as part of the resolution,  since delays will push us close to the election.  But it will be interesting if it does.

What is this tweet supposed to be about? I'm seeing stuff about an UK special election.

Oops, wrong copy paste in the morning. Thank you for catching that. Fixed.

It's a new filing that's asking for a bunch of special elections.

[Oryxslayer]

So two expected things happened today in LA:

1) The State Appealed the  legislative ruling.

2) State Rep Johnson reintroduced the courts desired remap for the regular session.

HB8 Supreme Court (Johnson, HD27, R) This is the map previously proposed by the 5 members of the Court who asked for a redrawing of their districts.

Also, for the Supreme Court, this map passed the house on Wednesday with a large Bipartisan supermajority and it seemingly passed should Senate today but the gov site lacks the vote scheduling atm.

This is the map proposed by the 5 members of the Supreme Court to redraw their lines and resolve the lawsuit against their district lines. The legislature seems to have deferred with minimal objections to their authority.

So apparently the session actually ended even though this map passed the house, passed third reading and was teed up in the senate, and had more sponsors in both chambers than I can list? Look for it to reemerge when the legislature reconvenes.

[Oryxslayer]

As anticipated,  the court's desired map is moving through the regular session. Passed the senate first this time.