2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[GALeftist]

Is there a way to draw a 4-2 map that gets rid of Abraham's district and not Graves's? It just seems like Graves's district is the natural one to get nuked but obviously that's suboptimal.

[GALeftist]

Is there a way to draw a 4-2 map that gets rid of Abraham's district and not Graves's? It just seems like Graves's district is the natural one to get nuked but obviously that's suboptimal.

I mean a 4-2 map is pretty hard tbh without violating the VRA

Well here's the reason I ask:



It's ugly as sin but it sort of has to be if you want a 4-2 map. Blue is about 53% black 40% white by CVAP, Green is about 56% black 40% white. I wish I could have made the New Orleans seat from only Orleans and Jefferson parishes, but unfortunately I don't think the math works out for it to be black enough. Anyways obviously none of these districts are competitive, blue went for Clinton like 70-30, green like 65-30, and Trump clears 70 in all the other districts (excepts Higgins's, and then only barely). However, as you can see, Scalise and Higgins keep their districts pretty much intact, and Johnson and Abraham's districts are sorta similar, but Graves gets hacked apart, which is unfortunate when Abraham is retiring anyway.

(those faint lines are the current districts)

Here's the link (I think): https://davesredistricting.org/join/ae60bd2f-d8e3-4e5f-af55-64d8fcf31748

[GALeftist]

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff

Does the GOP have the votes to override? I thought they were a couple seats shy

[GALeftist]

Do VRA seats need to be >50% CVAP or do they just need to be pretty sure that it will almost always elect a minority representative? I'm trying to see how compact you can get a 4-2 map but it's surprisingly hard to get them over the hump with CVAP, they always seem to be just shy of 50%

[GALeftist]

You'd still need two defections for the court to rule against the GOP (one if you include the Independent Chief Justice with the Democrats; he's in the 6th, which is not in Baton Rouge and therefore seems unlikely to be axed). That seems unlikely, so it's probably a low-risk, high-reward move which maintains OK relations with black LA Democrats after the congressional gerrymander.

[GALeftist]

I made a legal under current SCOTUS 6-0 GOP map.

Wait, wait, wait. You're telling me you can divide a Safe R state into 6 Safe R subdivisions? Impossible. Preposterous. Utterly absurd.

[GALeftist]

This is the proposed remedial map from the plaintiffs.

The defendants said that they were just two of the legislators, and that executive branch defendants were not competent to propose a map due to separation of powers, so that they would not propose a map.

Pretty nice looking map honestly. Certainly better than the current monstrosity.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1666942275669065728?s=20

Since the two cases were tied at the hip by the Supreme Court itself, one would normally expect this to be ignored an then the previously ordered remapping to commence.

I read the letter brief and it seems extraordinarily weak. Louisiana doesn't even really engage with the court's decision in Milligan, instead simply reiterating their original objections, many of which were decided by the SCOTUS, even if Louisiana doesn't like their decision. Further, SCOTUS explicitly wrote in Milligan that the district court's findings with respect to Gingles were subject to clear error review. Never put anything past this court but I would be very surprised if this appeal isn't dismissed.

[GALeftist]

These 2 so called 2 Gingles CD maps seem to violate the metric of reasonably hewing to traditional redistricting criteria mentioned by Justice Roberts. While the yellow BR based CD seems somewhat reasonable looking, what is not "traditional" is wandering around from Baton Rogue to Monroe to Lafayette to Alexandria, chopping each city to pick up the black precincts and exclude the white ones. None of the maps put up were linked to the DRA, so it took me some time to discern what was afoot. So maybe another VRA case will find its way to SCOTUS.

I doubt it for a couple reasons.

Firstly, regarding the city chops, the district court considered this issue and found that the proposed remedial plan was superior to the status quo in terms of parish and municipal splits. The Fifth Circuit also found that they were likely to succeed in showing that their alternatives were both sufficiently compact and also not racial gerrymanders. This is, I believe, subject to clear error review, and if SCOTUS was willing to defer to the district court in Milligan I think it will do likewise here.

This is partially a case of "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered" – I'm not the first to note that Louisiana's case is made much more difficult by virtue of the existing map's being very uncompact – but I think there's more to it that people tend to miss here. The stipulation that states must adhere to "traditional redistricting principles" comes to us from cases like Shaw v. Reno, which were dealing with districts like NC's old CDs 1 and 12, which are extremely dissimilar from the proposed remedial maps that have been set forward here. That is to say, existing jurisprudence does not say that section 2 districts must be the types of districts that would be drawn by some hypothetical actor acting with no knowledge of race, and indeed SCOTUS reaffirmed this in Milligan. VRA districts need not adhere maximally to traditional redistricting principles, it just cannot completely eschew them like North Carolina used to.

The other thing is that I think Louisiana really shot themselves in the foot by arguing that the case "presents the same question" as Milligan to get the SCOTUS stay and then doubling back now that Milligan didn't get decided the way they thought it would.

[GALeftist]

I get it that the non compact maps that were tossed were worse, but the Gingles’ map in AL in Allen was a heck of a lot better, and Roberts expressly mentioned keeping municipalities together, so the LA Gingles map falls squarely in between. If the comparison test between the map passed and the Gingles map prevails as the standard, then yeah the LA hog map tanks the Pubs. If one needs as well a prong that the Gingles map must better hew to traditional redistricting criteria, or at least match it, it arguably fails.

One is missing here is a prong that the map passed must be superior based on traditional redistricting criteria than the hypothetical Gingles map. Roberts alluded/implied that as well, but since not applicable to AL, he did not get into the weeds as to remedies, e.g., that a map must be drawn that is superior to the Gingles map based on traditional redistricting criteria, and if none exist, then minority performing districts must be drawn as dictated by Gingles. That to me would be the appropriate standard.

The Pubs would be wise to pass the Torie map that I drew, and toss the hog map. We shall see.

Good post, one of among many that I have noticed from you lately. You must be a legal type or it’s a major avocation of yours. Thank you.

Thank you, truly, that means a lot coming from you!

[GALeftist]

June 26, 2023 SCOTUS order re: Ardoin v. Robinson:

"The writ of certiorari before judgment is dismissed as improvidently granted. The stay heretofore entered by the Court on June 28, 2022, is vacated. This will allow the matter to proceed before the Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit for review in the ordinary course and in advance of the 2024 congressional elections in Louisiana. See this Court's Rule 11."

Judging by what I've read from the Fifth Circuit on this matter, looks like Louisiana is getting a second VRA district.

[GALeftist]

I think that those worried about insufficient compactness or excessive municipality splits might find this portion of the Fifth Circuit's order denying motion to stay the district court's order pending appeal:

"First, the defendants’ expert Dr. Thomas Bryan observed that the illustrative districting exercised 'surgical' precision in splitting Baton Rouge and Lafayette between congressional districts such that the black neighborhoods were included in CD 5. Id. at *17. Those split political divisions tend to show that CD 5 breached a traditional redistricting criterion in those locations and raise the possibility that CD 5 divides communities of interest based in a single municipality. But providing evidence of a minor departure in one area of the district has only limited probative value with respect to the compliance of the district with traditional redistricting criteria on the whole. And any implication that the proposed CD 5 splits up communities of interest in Baton Rouge and Lafayette is outweighed by the plaintiffs’ direct testimony that the black populations in CD 5 are culturally compact." (11)

In other words, the Fifth Circuit seems to think that the chops are OK because they are in service of the greater goal of uniting Black Louisianans, who themselves constitute a COI. As far as I can tell, this doesn't seem to be in tension with either Milligan or Gingles.

To the extent that hope exists for Louisiana, though, I would say that they lie in the compactness question. The Fifth Circuit notes repeatedly that the defendants almost conceded this point and put all their eggs in the basket of racial gerrymandering. However, given the language above, I am >90% sure that plaintiffs will prevail.

[GALeftist]

Based on 2022 results and the recent bipartisan efforts in the state to legislate on moral issues(porn verification, social media parental consent etc), I honestly expect Biden's margin in Louisiana to completely collapse. It won't likely be enough to save Letlow but I'd be wary of assuming Biden will hold up in this state(and the south in general)

It's Louisiana. If the district is over 50% black (or includes New Orleans), the Democrat will win, simple as that. For the same reasons that Democrats from the Deep South can be idiosyncratic on some of these issues, it is unlikely that Democrats will collapse, particularly on the congressional level.

I do think my left-of-center friends should prepare for the possibility that a conservadem wins the new seat, but all the takes about a surprise R victory in the event of a second VRA district are doom/cope.

[GALeftist]

Interestingly, although there was a big fight over Southwick's confirmation, he's afaik the least hackish GOP judge on the Fifth Circuit (low bar but still). Would expect him to be the swing vote here

[GALeftist]

We're getting Shreveport to BR LFG!!!!

Legitimately has long been my preferred option for a second AA seat for years cause you are following the river. A clear COI compared to the L or the BR octopus. Also in this situation, protects the Speaker by yanking out the uber-AA precincts like how LA-02 does now with BR. Though once it was announced that they were looking at screwing Graves, I explored the options and found that the diagonal actually made the most sense if you want that outcome and a 50%+1 VAP seat. Obviously, compared to how it's drawn by the legislator, it can be neater, and IMO the GOP seats should be neater to prevent compactness allegations:

How can this district be constitutional when 2010's VA-03 was unconstitutional?  This is just ridiculous.  The almost-all BR version preferred by the lower house looks so much better and likely meets the VRA standard.

I am not unsympathetic to this argument but idk who would sue.