2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Skill and Chance]

We're getting Shreveport to BR LFG!!!!

Legitimately has long been my preferred option for a second AA seat for years cause you are following the river. A clear COI compared to the L or the BR octopus. Also in this situation, protects the Speaker by yanking out the uber-AA precincts like how LA-02 does now with BR. Though once it was announced that they were looking at screwing Graves, I explored the options and found that the diagonal actually made the most sense if you want that outcome and a 50%+1 VAP seat. Obviously, compared to how it's drawn by the legislator, it can be neater, and IMO the GOP seats should be neater to prevent compactness allegations:

How can this district be constitutional when 2010's VA-03 was unconstitutional?  This is just ridiculous.  The almost-all BR version preferred by the lower house looks so much better and likely meets the VRA standard.

I am not unsympathetic to this argument but idk who would sue.

A Baton Rouge Dem who lost the primary to a Shreveport Dem?

[Oryxslayer]

We're getting Shreveport to BR LFG!!!!

Legitimately has long been my preferred option for a second AA seat for years cause you are following the river. A clear COI compared to the L or the BR octopus. Also in this situation, protects the Speaker by yanking out the uber-AA precincts like how LA-02 does now with BR. Though once it was announced that they were looking at screwing Graves, I explored the options and found that the diagonal actually made the most sense if you want that outcome and a 50%+1 VAP seat. Obviously, compared to how it's drawn by the legislator, it can be neater, and IMO the GOP seats should be neater to prevent compactness allegations:

How can this district be constitutional when 2010's VA-03 was unconstitutional?  This is just ridiculous.  The almost-all BR version preferred by the lower house looks so much better and likely meets the VRA standard.

I mean I'm sure it does. The main difference between the two maps proposed by the GOP so far is the diagonal is majority BVAP, the BR seat is not. And that just goes for general theory about the designs of the two seats as well: the one I call the BR octopus (cause it reaches everywhere possible in the south) can't really reach 50% BVAP without hurting LA-02, the diagonal achieves it easily in most iterations.

Speaking of those iterations, you can go way back into the thread to find my diagonal discussions, and old maps. In general, this version drawn by the legislature isn't all that good, especially when it comes to the seats around the AA ones. But that's mostly a case of politics which eliminated consideration of the "L shape" district or a good diagonal like below. But in the end of the day, that's just my opinion, you are free to have yours.



But now lets talk about why both proposed plans satisfy the VRA as currently imposed, and why some other districts do not. The best place to start IMO is actually a similar and old Louisiana district, District 4 under the second attempt by the GOP and AA legislators to get their map passed a white-Dem led racial gerrymandering suit.



So why does this map fail and IMO the current Womack map succeeds, or other districts like the referenced VA one, fail? Similar to how VRA districts can have fluctuating levels of minority VAP based on RPV in each specific situation, each specific situation also has it's own COI. And the crucial question that should be asked is Can this district only be explained by Race. That's why so many of the 90s computerized African American packs, including the diagonal district 4, fail. Only three parishes kept whole of 15 visited and the cuts are wild going precinct by precinct. That's also why the old VA-03 fell, cause it used water connectivity when there were alternative designs avaiable that followed COIs.

That's why I like the diagonal, cause you have a clear and strong COI in the Red River. Even though there are not many ferry boats these days, that waterway determined the pattern of settlement and development. The Womack map keeps 5 parishes whole and cuts 5, the BR cut being unavoidable no matter what. The echols map keeps 2 parishs whole and cuts 10, which is why I don't like the BR only designs. And a better diagonal design would keep even more parishes whole and when cut them follow the river or city lines.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1747759355758264581

https://twitter.com/ET_Californian/status/1747764202809274762

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ET_Californian/status/1747771492647973261?t=T-dc6BmKCu2fd3pH...

There's being drawn out, and then there's being Drawn Out.


Notably this version carves out LSU (as seen here) and the number of republicans Letlow is taking in from LA-06 is much more iffy versus what she is retaining. IMO I don't like how this version adds another parish cut.

[Nyvin]

All 11 Senate Democrats voted against the map, lol, why?  From a purely partisan perspective it really doesn't get much better than that map.  Are they trying to defend Graves or something?

[Oryxslayer]

All 11 Senate Democrats voted against the map, lol, why?  From a purely partisan perspective it really doesn't get much better than that map.  Are they trying to defend Graves or something?

Probably principle, just getting shut out of the process. The fact the map advanced unanimously through committee (which has Dems on it) should show their true beliefs.

[reagente]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1748131036997853305

Louisiana definitely not afraid of border gore.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1748131036997853305

Louisiana definitely not afraid of border gore.

Are they drawing LSU into Higgins’s seat?!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have questions about what they did to Baton Rouge...

[Oryxslayer]

Weirdly, the west of the state looks better than the diagonals proposed so far. But then you look towards the southeast...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Weirdly, the west of the state looks better than the diagonals proposed so far. But then you look towards the southeast...

They stripped out, I assume, heavily black areas and added them in to New Orleans.
Plus, I have to assume, there's some aim at Garrett Graves...

[Atlas Force]

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1748132861868130592

[Oryxslayer]

Weirdly, the west of the state looks better than the diagonals proposed so far. But then you look towards the southeast...

They stripped out, I assume, heavily black areas and added them in to New Orleans.
Plus, I have to assume, there's some aim at Garrett Graves...

The EBR cut itself is baseically identical wen it comes to LA-06 as the map passed by the senate. LA-03 is now just doing a bunch of weird stuff to get into the county and take what was previously in LA-05, and it seems to force pop rotation to LA -01 and another seemingly road-only connection in Lafourche. I have to imagine Scalise is behind this, pulling his seat more from the BR media market compared to the senate map and causing oddities to LA-03 so that LA-05 doesn't have too many EBR GOP voters.

[patzer]

With that level of border gore, I'm half surprised they didn't decide to give the 6th an arm to Lake Charles...

[ProgressiveModerate]

With that level of border gore, I'm half surprised they didn't decide to give the 6th an arm to Lake Charles...

Nah it's really hard to make an arm to Lake Charles worth it under any config. You have to pick up too many deep red rural precincts without gaining that much black population. Also traditionally in LA redistricting they minimize precinct splits.

[Skill and Chance]

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1748132861868130592

Not totally shocked as it's more purely urbanized than the L district and I believe it has legit culturally liberal parts of Baton Rouge in it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1748132861868130592

Not totally shocked as it's more purely urbanized than the L district and I believe it has legit culturally liberal parts of Baton Rouge in it.

Yep. The big rural areas won't count for much in practice, here.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's a DRA link to my (close enough) transcription.


Here's the two tenuous connections.






And here's how you fix it while maintaining all stated desires:

[Nyvin]

What a sloppy, hideous map.   

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If they’re gonna just make it as ugly as possible I demand they bring back the border hugging graphic glitch that was the 1993-1994 4th district. It even was Fields seat!

[Skill and Chance]

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1748132861868130592

Not totally shocked as it's more purely urbanized than the L district and I believe it has legit culturally liberal parts of Baton Rouge in it.

Yep. The big rural areas won't count for much in practice, here.

It does help ensure it holds for the decade as an opportunity district (no AL-02 risk), so that's good. 

[Oryxslayer]

House just passed the Semi-Original Womack map, aka the version that was sent to them by the senate. 86 Yea, a bipartisan vote.

The amendments from yesterday were rejected.

This now goes to the governor, meaning that for now the legislatures congressional work is probably done.

EDIT: Even though they chucked nearly all amendments, the House version seemed to have shifted a literal handful of voters around. So the senate had to do a quick concurrence vote by the same margins as before. So now it actually should be done.

[Oryxslayer]

HB8 Supreme Court (Johnson, HD27, R) This is the map previously proposed by the 5 members of the Court who asked for a redrawing of their districts.

Also, for the Supreme Court, this map passed the house on Wednesday with a large Bipartisan supermajority and it seemingly passed should Senate today but the gov site lacks the vote scheduling atm.

This is the map proposed by the 5 members of the Supreme Court to redraw their lines and resolve the lawsuit against their district lines. The legislature seems to have deferred with minimal objections to their authority.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/SR_spatial/status/1748456503118328058

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

So they didn't go with the splitting southern EBR three ways to give Clay Higgins some of it after all. And District 2 still snakes into Thibodaux but no longer goes all the way to Houma.