Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden is now at the doorstep of underwater approvals over at RCP. And at 538 he is nearing the same.

Biden is a failed president.

Trump literally got to a -20 approval rating multiple times of his presidency and he nearly won another term. So....

Which proves that polls are dem-leaning, Biden is already underwater, only now is it showing thus far. Even then, it's underestimating the disapproval.

I once saw an approval rating for Donald Trump in Iowa after the Chinese took revenge upon rural America for tariffs against Chinese manufactures and saw 60% disapproval, and something similar in Ohio. That suggested to me that Donald Trump was a failed President.

He opened the spigot for crop subsidies and won over rural America in 2020.

Voters can forget the hasty departure from Afghanistan. It might become more troublesome for Republicans; after all, Donald Trump negotiated the deal.

The memory of COVID-19 won't go away.

The same polls that said Biden would win the National PV by 9? Who takes polls seriously in 2021

If you don't take polls seriously, why do you follow this thread?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

News lag, polls lag more and poll aggregate (esp 538 that gives pretty much weight to older polls) lags even more. Yet to see the impact of Afghanistan debacle.


Also, if I recall it correctly (I was busy and didn't actually followed the news carefully) the big things started to reported ~10th August, and you could hear about it from every TV news ~13th August. As I said, I'm not sure.  If you look at 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
his approval was already going down at late July/early August. Like it was +10% during the summer, +7 at start of August and +5 now.

On other hands, there have mostly been polls from muh pollsters so far.


Will it be forgotten in 2 weeks? Well, this one has more substance the Benghazi hearing LMAO.

As I said yesterday, Biden approval were trending downwards even before Afghanistan debacle, which is interesting. Perhaps, this mess will re-enforce people's change of mind about Biden's job as Pr. (corona, economy, immigration etc)?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-americans-think-about-the-end-of-the-afghanistan-war-and-bidens-handling-of-it-so-far/

In the bigger picture, Biden’s net approval rating is also at its lowest point in his presidency, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average: 49.1 percent approval, 44.5 percent disapproval. This may well be partially due to the news in Afghanistan: For instance, Ipsos/Reuters found that Biden’s approval rating dropped sharply — 7 percentage points — between Friday, Aug. 13, and Monday, Aug. 16. However, Biden’s approval rating was slipping even before the Taliban took over, so it’s also clear that Afghanistan isn’t the only factor at play here.

And from Gallup's semi-old poll:

[Matty]

He’s underwater in rcp now

Obama, I believe, went underwater a little bit after aug 2009 so this is in line with that

Trump remains the outlier

[THG]

INSHALLAH!


https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1428857489768943616

[THG]

He’s underwater in rcp now

Obama, I believe, went underwater a little bit after aug 2009 so this is in line with that

Trump remains the outlier

Obama was not in the negatives 'till March 18th, 2010- and his net approval wasn't this low until April 11th, 2010. In fact, Biden's collapse in approvals reminds me of Obama's declining approval rating during his second term, which is when he truly started to get unpopular (which is part of what led to the 2016 election being as it was).

Also keep in mind that approval polls oversample Democrats by around 5-20 points, so it's reasonable to assume that his net approval is minus 5 to 10.

[Ferguson97]

yeah sorry I don't believe this lol

[THG]

yeah sorry I don't believe this lol

I do believe the fact that Biden is underwater in most states.

What I do not believe is some of those margins, however (especially Delaware).

Also, Civiqs ridiculously underestimated Trump in the Midwest for whatever odd reason, so this isn't anything new or partisan.

[pbrower2a]

yeah sorry I don't believe this lol

I'd like to see this in context with other polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

He’s underwater in rcp now

Obama, I believe, went underwater a little bit after aug 2009 so this is in line with that

Trump remains the outlier

Obama was not in the negatives 'till March 18th, 2010- and his net approval wasn't this low until April 11th, 2010. In fact, Biden's collapse in approvals reminds me of Obama's declining approval rating during his second term, which is when he truly started to get unpopular (which led to the 2016 election being as it was).

Also keep in mind that approval polls oversample Democrats by around 5-20 points, so it's reasonable to assume that his net approval is minus 5 to 10.

I hate to break it to you (actually I don't), but there are significantly more Democrats than Republicans in the U.S., so a representative sample will have more D's than R's.  But as long as the poll is properly weighted to reflect the electorate, the party composition isn't hugely significant as long as the subsamples of each party are large enough.  "Unskewing" the polls doesn't have a great track record.

[THG]

He’s underwater in rcp now

Obama, I believe, went underwater a little bit after aug 2009 so this is in line with that

Trump remains the outlier

Obama was not in the negatives 'till March 18th, 2010- and his net approval wasn't this low until April 11th, 2010. In fact, Biden's collapse in approvals reminds me of Obama's declining approval rating during his second term, which is when he truly started to get unpopular (which led to the 2016 election being as it was).

Also keep in mind that approval polls oversample Democrats by around 5-20 points, so it's reasonable to assume that his net approval is minus 5 to 10.

I hate to break it to you (actually I don't), but there are significantly more Democrats than Republicans in the U.S., so a representative sample will have more D's than R's.  But as long as the poll is properly weighted to reflect the electorate, the party composition isn't hugely significant as long as the subsamples of each party are large enough.  "Unskewing" the polls doesn't have a great track record.

The 2020 national environment was a D+4 one. Most of these polls have a D+10 or sometimes even a D+20 sample, thus overestimating Democrats.

Also, there are way more independents than either Democrats or Republicans in the US, and polling generally has Biden underwater with indies too. This indicates to me that his approval rating is probably underwater by around 5-10.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we so worried about Biden Approvals Rassy had for a long time except now, he is obviously promoting Trump for 2024, and has House effect in landline polls not online polls Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden represents the blue states in 2022 and T the Red states


That's exactly the 304 map we saw on Election night B 50/45%

It's no difference



As I said before it's gonna be a 220/215H either way, a 52/48 D WI and PA Senate, and if D's assume the Trifecta, IL, NY and Cali making up losses in GA, NC, TX and FL, Tester a Blue Dog, not a Liberal can decide DC Statehood for wave insurance for 2024 tough Senate cycle and he has a tough rave and he said Manchester n is very wrong on a Constitutional Amendment for DC Statehood and should be passed now.  Tester is a Casey blue dog not a Manchin and Sinema blue dog


D's will net AK, MD, MA, and NH Govs, keep WI, KY and KS and loose LA and NC in 2023/2024/ the Senate delegation aside from MT and OH are partisan trends just like the House delegation except for WI

[Devils30]

We need to see the actual numbers in Virginia races this November (and NJ to a lesser extent). The actual HoD results in 2017 suggested a Democratic romp despite Dems thinking Northam was gonna blow it the day before. In 2009 VA was also a good barometer of 2010. Actual election results should be weighted well above polls.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's been a historic week. A red wave in 2022 looks a lot more likely now, unless the Democrats can turn this around, and fast. The longer this becomes baked into people's minds the harder it is to get Biden back into decently positive (+5-10) approval that he needs to stave off a beating in the House. And this isn't considering that the polling averages are still overstating his support by a few points, with some pollsters (like Hill/Harris, Morning Consult, and IBD (don't know what happened to them!)) skewing his averages significantly at times. It is sometimes counterbalanced by Rasmussen, but that's the only one that's consistently more right-leaning than the rest.

[Dan the Roman]

One thing to consider is that this is a far less polarizing presidency. Ie. what precisely is there to approve of? With Trump there is a direct correlation between approval and partisanship, and as a result being a Republican or disliking Democrats almost required you to approve. This was obvious when you compared the Favorable numbers to the Approval ones which tended to be(slightly) less polarized.

With the exception of a few folks here who seem to be taking criticism of Afghanistan personally, there is no particular reason why large segments of Biden's electorate in 2020 would particularly approve of him. Has he handled it well? Ie. separate from any decision to withdraw? Maybe you don't think its entirely or even mostly his fault but in the spectrum of what he had agency over did he use it well?

Covid? You can blame anti-vaxxers, and blame Republican leaning voters for that, and even Republican pols for grandstanding but again within the scope of agency what did he do?

1. JJ pause which in hindsight was almost certainly a serious mistake
2. A weird, drawn-out approach to vaccine mandates which ended up allowing masking to become a live issue again. Whereas on a tradeoff, even if masking+shots was better, aggressively risking the (marginal given non compliance) risks of no masks to get as many shots
3. No approval for under 12 vaccines which contributes to why we are fighting over schools

On Covid Biden has either done nothing, little, been too slow, or acted in ways which haven't worked out. No real reason to approve.

Maybe spending money? But even then infrastructure stories are all about weird procedural stuff.

Like frankly why would you expect approval ratings to be high?

I am just unsure they matter that much. I mean they matter insofar as Democrats probably needed them to be historically high to not have a bad 2022, but I suspect that just as in 2018 the bottom for the GOP held up a lot better than in 2006 or 2008, the bottom for the Democrats will be a lot higher in 2022 than in 2014 because their voters will turn out due to "fear". So what you will get is going to be a 50-48 GOP popular vote margin and a mild wave as opposed to a 53-45 wipeout. But I am unsure that Biden at 50-46 and Biden at 47-46 changes that much. Biden at 55-39 might. Biden at 42-53 might. But 47-46 won't really change much from 50-45.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One thing to consider is that this is a far less polarizing presidency. Ie. what precisely is there to approve of? With Trump there is a direct correlation between approval and partisanship, and as a result being a Republican or disliking Democrats almost required you to approve. This was obvious when you compared the Favorable numbers to the Approval ones which tended to be(slightly) less polarized.

With the exception of a few folks here who seem to be taking criticism of Afghanistan personally, there is no particular reason why large segments of Biden's electorate in 2020 would particularly approve of him. Has he handled it well? Ie. separate from any decision to withdraw? Maybe you don't think its entirely or even mostly his fault but in the spectrum of what he had agency over did he use it well?

Covid? You can blame anti-vaxxers, and blame Republican leaning voters for that, and even Republican pols for grandstanding but again within the scope of agency what did he do?

1. JJ pause which in hindsight was almost certainly a serious mistake
2. A weird, drawn-out approach to vaccine mandates which ended up allowing masking to become a live issue again. Whereas on a tradeoff, even if masking+shots was better, aggressively risking the (marginal given non compliance) risks of no masks to get as many shots
3. No approval for under 12 vaccines which contributes to why we are fighting over schools

On Covid Biden has either done nothing, little, been too slow, or acted in ways which haven't worked out. No real reason to approve.

Maybe spending money? But even then infrastructure stories are all about weird procedural stuff.

Like frankly why would you expect approval ratings to be high?

I am just unsure they matter that much. I mean they matter insofar as Democrats probably needed them to be historically high to not have a bad 2022, but I suspect that just as in 2018 the bottom for the GOP held up a lot better than in 2006 or 2008, the bottom for the Democrats will be a lot higher in 2022 than in 2014 because their voters will turn out due to "fear". So what you will get is going to be a 50-48 GOP popular vote margin and a mild wave as opposed to a 53-45 wipeout. But I am unsure that Biden at 50-46 and Biden at 47-46 changes that much. Biden at 55-39 might. Biden at 42-53 might. But 47-46 won't really change much from 50-45.

No it's not Ds are still favored to keep the Senate and it is Still a 220/215 H in Redistricting either way, Election Guy don't believe in waves just like MT Treasurer they don't want DC Statehood in a 220/15D H and a 52/48 Senate but Rs stacked the Crt.

Rassy tracking had it 49/45 like it was in 2020, it's been a 304 map since Election night

Biden only went up to 55/60 because Covid went down and issued 1400 checks no more of those


This is Nate Silver model on You tube and his 538 maps

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://apnorc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Biden-Topline.pdf

AP-NORC, August 12-16 compared to July 15-19

54 (-5)
46 (+5)

A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that 54% of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance, down slightly from 59% last month. While that’s still a relatively solid rating for a president during his first year in office, particularly given the nation’s deep political polarization, it’s a worrying sign for Biden as he faces the greatest domestic and foreign policy challenges of his presidency so far.

The biggest warning sign for the president in the survey centers on his handling of the pandemic. Last month, 66% of Americans approved of his stewardship of the public health crisis; now, that number has fallen to 54%, driven by a drop in support from Republicans and independents.

That decline in support coincides with other storm clouds gathering over Biden’s presidency, most notably the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan as U.S. troops withdraw and the Taliban cement their control of the country.

The poll, conducted August 12-16, as news of the Taliban’s movement into Kabul was widely reported in the United States, shows Americans about evenly divided over Biden’s handling of foreign policy (47% approve, 51% disapprove) and national security (52% approve, 46% disapprove).

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-health-coronavirus-pandemic-only-on-ap-1329ed5cf7648f2631b636e83282a910


So far, with exception for Rasmussen, mostly Biden-friendly polls has come out. The trend is ouch, though.

[Matty]

What the heck is up with AP-NORC?

They have had a huge dem lean for like 2-3 years now

[It’s so Joever]

One thing to consider is that this is a far less polarizing presidency. Ie. what precisely is there to approve of? With Trump there is a direct correlation between approval and partisanship, and as a result being a Republican or disliking Democrats almost required you to approve. This was obvious when you compared the Favorable numbers to the Approval ones which tended to be(slightly) less polarized.

With the exception of a few folks here who seem to be taking criticism of Afghanistan personally, there is no particular reason why large segments of Biden's electorate in 2020 would particularly approve of him. Has he handled it well? Ie. separate from any decision to withdraw? Maybe you don't think its entirely or even mostly his fault but in the spectrum of what he had agency over did he use it well?

Covid? You can blame anti-vaxxers, and blame Republican leaning voters for that, and even Republican pols for grandstanding but again within the scope of agency what did he do?

1. JJ pause which in hindsight was almost certainly a serious mistake
2. A weird, drawn-out approach to vaccine mandates which ended up allowing masking to become a live issue again. Whereas on a tradeoff, even if masking+shots was better, aggressively risking the (marginal given non compliance) risks of no masks to get as many shots
3. No approval for under 12 vaccines which contributes to why we are fighting over schools

On Covid Biden has either done nothing, little, been too slow, or acted in ways which haven't worked out. No real reason to approve.

Maybe spending money? But even then infrastructure stories are all about weird procedural stuff.

Like frankly why would you expect approval ratings to be high?

I am just unsure they matter that much. I mean they matter insofar as Democrats probably needed them to be historically high to not have a bad 2022, but I suspect that just as in 2018 the bottom for the GOP held up a lot better than in 2006 or 2008, the bottom for the Democrats will be a lot higher in 2022 than in 2014 because their voters will turn out due to "fear". So what you will get is going to be a 50-48 GOP popular vote margin and a mild wave as opposed to a 53-45 wipeout. But I am unsure that Biden at 50-46 and Biden at 47-46 changes that much. Biden at 55-39 might. Biden at 42-53 might. But 47-46 won't really change much from 50-45.

This is a quality post in a sea of partisan filth/hackery. Seriously you nailed it.

[pbrower2a]

It's been a historic week. A red wave in 2022 looks a lot more likely now, unless the Democrats can turn this around, and fast. The longer this becomes baked into people's minds the harder it is to get Biden back into decently positive (+5-10) approval that he needs to stave off a beating in the House. And this isn't considering that the polling averages are still overstating his support by a few points, with some pollsters (like Hill/Harris, Morning Consult, and IBD (don't know what happened to them!)) skewing his averages significantly at times. It is sometimes counterbalanced by Rasmussen, but that's the only one that's consistently more right-leaning than the rest.

...or people forget, or cast blame on Republicans. The exit from Afghanistan was Trump's idea -- and deal. COVID-19 will still be killing Americans in large numbers (the death toll has reached the scale of the populations of Las Vegas or Detroit -- and I am using Census numbers for 2020 now).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's been a historic week. A red wave in 2022 looks a lot more likely now, unless the Democrats can turn this around, and fast. The longer this becomes baked into people's minds the harder it is to get Biden back into decently positive (+5-10) approval that he needs to stave off a beating in the House. And this isn't considering that the polling averages are still overstating his support by a few points, with some pollsters (like Hill/Harris, Morning Consult, and IBD (don't know what happened to them!)) skewing his averages significantly at times. It is sometimes counterbalanced by Rasmussen, but that's the only one that's consistently more right-leaning than the rest.

...or people forget, or cast blame on Republicans. The exit from Afghanistan was Trump's idea -- and deal. COVID-19 will still be killing Americans in large numbers (the death toll has reached the scale of the populations of Las Vegas or Detroit -- and I am using Census numbers for 2020 now).

We already know it was Trump idea, don't forget this is an OPEC country and he made lucrative oil contracts with Taliban, bit a total withdrawal was unnecessary and we could of kept a residual force of 3K troops like we have in Japan, protecting the Afghanistan Govt, now ISIL has taken over by IRANIAN clerics and committ Domestic Terroritorists attacks and eventually there will be an international Terrorist attack in Europe or US and it will be Biden faught


It's 49/45 Biden over Trump, just like in 2020, it's a 304 map, Rs have ruined this country with FRACKING, but History won't he kind to Biden with allowing TALIBAN back, IT WILL BE AN * NEXT TO HIS NAME JUST LIKE WITH Clinton whom is friends with Biden to keeping Gingrich Revolution going on with losing 2000 Prez by not letting Gore be the incumbent, everyone but WC screamed for Clinton to resign and allow Gore be the inc every close state that went to Nadar would of went to Gore, and digging wouldn't have mattered

Tara Reade and Lewinsky links Biden and Cuomo as HUD SEC OF Clinton and Biden

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's been a historic week. A red wave in 2022 looks a lot more likely now, unless the Democrats can turn this around, and fast. The longer this becomes baked into people's minds the harder it is to get Biden back into decently positive (+5-10) approval that he needs to stave off a beating in the House. And this isn't considering that the polling averages are still overstating his support by a few points, with some pollsters (like Hill/Harris, Morning Consult, and IBD (don't know what happened to them!)) skewing his averages significantly at times. It is sometimes counterbalanced by Rasmussen, but that's the only one that's consistently more right-leaning than the rest.

While I agree with you that a red wave is likely, it always was, the Afghanistan debacle is incidental to it.

I disagree with you that this will stay in the minds of Americans by November 2022 and become "baked in." Americans will only care about it if it's in the headlines. And while it still may come up here and there, during an election year like 2022 I expect that we'll hear much more about and Americans will prioritize deficits, the economy in general, the pandemic, taxes, and naturally; bulls*** culture war nonsense instead.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1429173372076937221

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sigh, D's are leading in the VA and Cal Recall and the Election is 500 days from now, as I said in the Redistricting thread check back in Oct 2022, that's when Approvals matter, that's all Rs can point to they are underdogs at this pt

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP-NORC, Aug. 12-16, 1729 adults (1-month change)

Approve 54 (-5)
Disapprove 46 (+5)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 30 (+4)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for Rs trying to make Afghanistan into another Jan Commission, the Approvals remain steady


Unless there is a Terroritorist attack on us or our allies it's not gonna hurt, so far ISIL have had to deal with Covid and hasn't mounted a successful international Terrorist attack since Covid and our Drones are still there to bomb any terrorists