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Obviously Republicans can't go back to the NeoCon Stuff. They have to figure out something else.

Thoughts?

Betting markets are hardly predictive and jump back an forth. That's notthing special.

That said, and it pains me to say it, if I had to bet right now, I would say Trump winning is at least more likely than not. Whether I'll think that after the first debate and/or beyond, is a different story. As of today, however, it looks more likely that Biden is headed for a loss.

Why do you think Trump will win?

What changed your mind?

It seems very fitting that the only referendum in Slovakia's history to not have failed due to insufficient turnout was the 2003 one on joining the EU. Even it could only muster 52.12% turnout, surprisingly close to the 50% referendum validity threshold.

"It remains the only referendum in the country's history to have not failed due to insufficient voter turnout."
Incredible country.

2024 will be the last Election anyways where a Democratic Presidential Nominee can win with a WI, MI, PA Strategy.

By 2028 or 2032 it will be Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania = Republican, Republican, Republican.

Trump hasn't won in 2024 and I still think that he won't and we'll have Biden for 4 more years.

She was ahead by landslide numbers at times in the race and most of the sites before the election had her at a >90% chance, which may be where some of that comes from. But yes 538 to its credit had the race at 70-30 the night before.

Yes.

A big tragedy in all of this is that Bibi has been synonymous with Israel for the majority of many of our lives. It's why many people assume Israel will always act like it has under his disastrous leadership - untrue - and why people feel compelled to defend things like his failed, intractable, scorched-earth war strategy.

Israel’s government was terrible far before Bibi or Likud were in power, as a simple understanding of Israeli history would tell you.

Is your argument that the situation hasn't changed for the worse regarding settlements in the West Bank since Netanyahu came to power? I suppose Israel's government is always going to seem terrible to people who find the country illegitimate, if that describes your beliefs.

The Israeli government, since 1967, has shown little commitment to a long term solution, and seems to be banking on Western support to do whatever it wants in the mean time.

I see Sunak's in a mad dash to vindicate Theresa May as a competent campaigner by comparison.

The 1960 election probably had the most swing voters of any election in our history. About 40 states could have swung in either direction on election day. Cloestest election in our history except for 2000

I don't think Kennedy was seen as more hawkish than Nixon, both were seen as hawks. Its entirely possible that if Kennedy was less hawkish he would have lost

I hope Am lowers the price on their dried blueberries, the increases the last year have been killing me!