Highly unlikely. I don’t see it happening in 2024. As you noted, the gap between these two states in 2020 was 8 points which would require not just a significant R trend in NV but also a large D trend in TX and I simply can’t see the latter happening this year. Keep in mind that TX barely even trended left between 2016 and 2020 when all the demographic conditions and coalition shifts were ripe for Biden to make those gains.
Texas is also a state with low turnout, where Dems seem to have more overall potential with non-voters.
And therein lies their problem, because they barely got the overall statewide margin to budge in 2020 despite heightened enthusiasm levels across the board, not to mention favourable turnout patterns. I don’t expect lightning to strike twice again in that regard this fall.
Both states are quite urban/suburban in nature as well, with most of its population being constrained to its major metro areas.
TX has a larger rural population than most people give it credit for.
