Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1507605707713044480

Vladimir Putin is going to go down in history as one of the worst world leaders of all time. He destroyed his country's economy and superpower status for a generation.

[ꙮ]

Slavutych has also fallen today, which makes Chernihiv completely isolated. Ukrainian counterattacks east of Kyiv and Kherson have been more successful however. Trostyanets (near Sumy) was recaptured by Ukrainians.

Where are you getting the Trostyanets info from?

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1507740906333614085?s=20&t=ZdYLD2i...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1507738221249241090?s=20&t=ZdYLD2i...

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1507740061034504194?s=20&t=nvIwmB4SKlTNL...

Nice to see actual evidence of a Ukrainian counter-attack.

[urutzizu]

https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/status/1507776547780018177

This is pretty massive. In a Speech in Poland Biden for first time openly articulates the new policy of the US: Regime Change in Russia. Never before has US openly called for regime change in a P5 Nuclear state. Even during the height of the Cold War in the early 80s when Reagan said SU was an "Evil Empire", US did not call openly for regime change. Even the most radicals in the Trump Admin like Pompeo who went in that direction (Nixon Library speech 2020) for China, stopped short of explicitly saying it. Putin is now in terms of US policy what Saddam Hussein was post 1991.

What does this mean concretely?
-No chance of Sanctions being lifted until Putin is toppled, even if Hostilities cease, even if status ante quo bellum is restored
-Russia Liberation Act (pendant to Iraq Liberation Act of 1998)? US support for military coup in Russia, like in Iraq in 90s?
-However the major risk is that like with Saddam Hussein in the 90s, while it is successful long term in degrading Russia's economic and much of it's military potential into ruin, it is not effective and in fact counterproductive in achieving regime change.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/status/1507776547780018177
This is pretty massive. In a Speech in Poland Biden for first time openly articulates the new policy of the US: Regime Change in Russia. Never before has US openly called for regime change in a P5 Nuclear state. Even during the height of the Cold War in the early 80s when Reagan said SU was an "Evil Empire", US did not call openly for regime change. Even the most radicals in the Trump Admin like Pompeo who went in that direction (Nixon Library speech 2020) for China, stopped short of explicitly saying it. Putin is now in terms of US policy what Saddam Hussein was post 1991.

What does this mean concretely?
-No chance of Sanctions being lifted until Putin is toppled, even if Hostilities cease, even if status ante quo bellum is restored
-Russia Liberation Act (pendant to Iraq Liberation Act of 1998)? US support for military coup in Russia, like in Iraq in 90s?
-However the major risk is that like with Saddam Hussein in the 90s, while it is successful long term in degrading Russia's economic and much of it's military potential into ruin, it is not effective and in fact counterproductive in achieving regime change.

The White House is walking it back:

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1507784877894164488

[It’s so Joever]

Slavutych has also fallen today, which makes Chernihiv completely isolated. Ukrainian counterattacks east of Kyiv and Kherson have been more successful however. Trostyanets (near Sumy) was recaptured by Ukrainians.

Where are you getting the Trostyanets info from?

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1507740906333614085?s=20&t=ZdYLD2i...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1507738221249241090?s=20&t=ZdYLD2i...

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1507740061034504194?s=20&t=nvIwmB4SKlTNL...

That’s proof enough for me! Excellent news.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The war turns in Russia's favor, more so than ever!

[NOVA Green]

Looks like the Ukrainian authorities are now cracking down on private ownership of former Russian military equipment...

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1507661128222007303?s=20&t=IrYgpVB9...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1507708220663648261?s=20&t=_o1qFmwse...

[Hindsight was 2020]

The war turns in Russia's favor, more so than ever!

?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The war turns in Russia's favor, more so than ever!

?

Sarcasm. See the post above about the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive.

[OBD]

https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/status/1507776547780018177
This is pretty massive. In a Speech in Poland Biden for first time openly articulates the new policy of the US: Regime Change in Russia. Never before has US openly called for regime change in a P5 Nuclear state. Even during the height of the Cold War in the early 80s when Reagan said SU was an "Evil Empire", US did not call openly for regime change. Even the most radicals in the Trump Admin like Pompeo who went in that direction (Nixon Library speech 2020) for China, stopped short of explicitly saying it. Putin is now in terms of US policy what Saddam Hussein was post 1991.

What does this mean concretely?
-No chance of Sanctions being lifted until Putin is toppled, even if Hostilities cease, even if status ante quo bellum is restored
-Russia Liberation Act (pendant to Iraq Liberation Act of 1998)? US support for military coup in Russia, like in Iraq in 90s?
-However the major risk is that like with Saddam Hussein in the 90s, while it is successful long term in degrading Russia's economic and much of it's military potential into ruin, it is not effective and in fact counterproductive in achieving regime change.

The White House is walking it back:

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1507784877894164488

Malarkey!

We need to denazify and demilitarize Russia!

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Ohra_aho/status/1507666627567013888?s=20&t=IrYgpVB9C94he...

[President Johnson]

https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/status/1507776547780018177
This is pretty massive. In a Speech in Poland Biden for first time openly articulates the new policy of the US: Regime Change in Russia. Never before has US openly called for regime change in a P5 Nuclear state. Even during the height of the Cold War in the early 80s when Reagan said SU was an "Evil Empire", US did not call openly for regime change. Even the most radicals in the Trump Admin like Pompeo who went in that direction (Nixon Library speech 2020) for China, stopped short of explicitly saying it. Putin is now in terms of US policy what Saddam Hussein was post 1991.

What does this mean concretely?
-No chance of Sanctions being lifted until Putin is toppled, even if Hostilities cease, even if status ante quo bellum is restored
-Russia Liberation Act (pendant to Iraq Liberation Act of 1998)? US support for military coup in Russia, like in Iraq in 90s?
-However the major risk is that like with Saddam Hussein in the 90s, while it is successful long term in degrading Russia's economic and much of it's military potential into ruin, it is not effective and in fact counterproductive in achieving regime change.

The White House is walking it back:

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1507784877894164488

I think he just spoke from his heart in that moment, after visiting Ukrainian refugees in Poland. This certainly had an impact on him and while he's president, he's also is a human being, father, grandfather and has some decency.

[NOVA Green]

Edit: I should have noted that actually going through the Twitter stuff you can get to the guy's webpage which has a really good breakdown of theories involving the sinking of the Russian ship.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44925/russian-navy-ship-that-exploded-in-ukrainian-port-seen-totally-destroyed-in-satellite-image

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1507454878997647362?s=20&t=IrYgpVB...

[Hindsight was 2020]

The war turns in Russia's favor, more so than ever!

?

Sarcasm. See the post above about the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Okay just making sure

[dead0man]

Looks like the Ukrainian authorities are now cracking down on private ownership of former Russian military equipment...

boooooooooo

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/Ohra_aho/status/1507666627567013888?s=20&t=IrYgpVB9C94he...

sad and exhausted, every funking one of them.

[NOVA Green]

Interesting read on Russian Military Medals and how casualty numbers can be extrapolated from medal counts.


https://informnapalm.org/en/medal-count-osint-analysis-of-real-russian-losses-for-the-first-week-of-hostilities-in-ukraine/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The war turns in Russia's favor, more so than ever!

?

Sarcasm. See the post above about the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Okay just making sure

No prob man.
Usually when I adopt that sort of tone I'm being bitingly sarcastic though.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Ohra_aho/status/1507666627567013888?s=20&t=IrYgpVB9C94he...

Shoigu's voice sounds hoarse and looks like he wants a drink. So that fits with the "heart issues" Russian narrative. But, I'm skeptical that someone who supposedly just had a heart attack would be ready for a recorded press conference, where he does all of the talking, so quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if this was old footage.

Lol.
https://twitter.com/Avraimov/status/1507728508038135812?s=20&t=cydEyasU0WO6S...

[Torie]

Maybe it was noted above, but Biden saying Putin cannot remain in power, and the  the White House saying that does not mean regime change because Biden meant that Putin cannot have power over Russia's neighbors, is pretty pathetic. If Biden has that much trouble with words that important, he should read his speech word for word. If he meant what he said, then obviously the prep before hand was poor.

Addendum: I see that it was. I still think its pretty embarrassing.

[Storr]

Maybe it was noted above, but Biden saying Putin cannot remain in power, and the  the White House saying that does not mean regime change because Biden meant that Putin cannot have power over Russia's neighbors, is pretty pathetic. If Biden has that much trouble with words that important, he should read his speech word for word. If he meant what he said, then obviously the prep before hand was poor.

Addendum: I see that it was. I still think its pretty embarrassing.

It's like if after Regan said "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" the White House PR team immediately released a statement saying he didn't literally mean for the Berlin Wall to be torn down. But, instead Reagan meant tearing down the wall of mistrust between the east and west. It's really awkward and embarrassing. Does Biden have that much trouble speaking the PR team always has lame excuses ready to tweet out?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Speaking of Gorbachev, has anyone heard from him lately?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Speaking of Gorbachev, has anyone heard from him lately?

Still waiting for special envoy Steven Seagal's statement on the whole quagmire tbh.


https://twitter.com/RusEmbUSA/status/1025845634811809792

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1506988113939386372

Russia is running out of paratroopers and Spetsnaz, and thinks that they can still win the war by replacing them with conscripts and reserves.