Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[forgotten manatee]

Biden has just accused or sexually assaulting women again and the Hunter Biden report is due out in Aug, by Congressional Rs and Rob Johnson. Chris Matthew's,  whom was biased towards Biden and the secular press has given Biden a free pass during primaries. The polls are gonna get tighter as they always have and Trump may indeed take a small lead by the his convention

269-269 tie and way back to White House is thru the R delegation in the House

Biden is a very weak candidate in a vacuum, but double digit negative real GDP shrinkage and double digit unemployment will hurt Trump more than any of the above will hurt Biden. The horse race will be worse for Trump in a few months, not better, imo.  Recessions and economic contractions usually take a couple quarters to sink in and really take a political toll and that toll will come at the worst possible time for Trump.

The public is going to have little tolerance for silly season, which is exactly how I'd describe the Hunter Biden report, in the midst of a full blown economic and public health crisis. There's no way the GOP can advance it as issue meriting serious discussion when millions are out of work and going hungry. The sexual assault allegations against Biden are serious, concerning, and deserving of further scrutiny -- but it doesn't bolster Trump because he is a known sexual predator.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kansas: PPP, April 13-14, 1271 voters

Approve 52
Disapprove 43

[Bidenworth2020]

Biden has just accused or sexually assaulting women again and the Hunter Biden report is due out in Aug, by Congressional Rs and Rob Johnson. Chris Matthew's,  whom was biased towards Biden and the secular press has given Biden a free pass during primaries. The polls are gonna get tighter as they always have and Trump may indeed take a small lead by the his convention

269-269 tie and way back to White House is thru the R delegation in the House

Biden is a very weak candidate in a vacuum, but double digit negative real GDP shrinkage and double digit unemployment will hurt Trump more than any of the above will hurt Biden. The horse race will be worse for Trump in a few months, not better, imo.  Recessions and economic contractions usually take a couple quarters to sink in and really take a political toll and that toll will come at the worst possible time for Trump.

The public is going to have little tolerance for silly season, which is exactly how I'd describe the Hunter Biden report, in the midst of a full blown economic and public health crisis. There's no way the GOP can advance it as issue meriting serious discussion when millions are out of work and going hungry. The sexual assault allegations against Biden are serious, concerning, and deserving of further scrutiny -- but it doesn't bolster Trump because he is a known sexual predator.

The sexual assault allegations are about as close to debunked as they can be without empirical proof. That isn't necessarily to say they won't be used against Biden, but I disagree with the above assertions.

[roxas11]

Biden has just accused or sexually assaulting women again and the Hunter Biden report is due out in Aug, by Congressional Rs and Rob Johnson. Chris Matthew's,  whom was biased towards Biden and the secular press has given Biden a free pass during primaries. The polls are gonna get tighter as they always have and Trump may indeed take a small lead by the his convention

269-269 tie and way back to White House is thru the R delegation in the House

Trump himself has Been accused of sexually assaulting way more women than Biden ever has and Make no mistake if Trump and the GOP decide the go down this road. The Dems will fight fire with fire and Those many woman who have accused trump will have their voices heard during this election

But to be honest if the GOP is going to Make the election about Sexually assaulting women and Hunter Biden while Millions of Americans are right in the middle of a recession and others will still be dealing with the fallout of the coronavirus

The backlash against Both Trump and the GOP will be brutal and If I was Biden I would simply focus
on the economy and Ignore all the other nonsense that most of the American people do not care about at all  

Because I guarantee you when people are suffering and thinking about how they are going to pay their rent.......The GOP Hunter Biden investigation will be the last thing on their minds when they go to the polls this November

[lfromnj]

Trumps dissaproval margin has been increasing on 538 mostly coz of their rasmussen adjustment.

[pbrower2a]

Kansas: PPP, April 13-14, 1271 voters

Approve 52
Disapprove 43

Weak. Very weak for a Presidential nominee, especially an incumbent, in Kansas.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[HisGrace]

Biden has just accused or sexually assaulting women again and the Hunter Biden report is due out in Aug, by Congressional Rs and Rob Johnson. Chris Matthew's,  whom was biased towards Biden and the secular press has given Biden a free pass during primaries. The polls are gonna get tighter as they always have and Trump may indeed take a small lead by the his convention

269-269 tie and way back to White House is thru the R delegation in the House

Biden is a very weak candidate in a vacuum, but double digit negative real GDP shrinkage and double digit unemployment will hurt Trump more than any of the above will hurt Biden. The horse race will be worse for Trump in a few months, not better, imo.  Recessions and economic contractions usually take a couple quarters to sink in and really take a political toll and that toll will come at the worst possible time for Trump.

The public is going to have little tolerance for silly season, which is exactly how I'd describe the Hunter Biden report, in the midst of a full blown economic and public health crisis. There's no way the GOP can advance it as issue meriting serious discussion when millions are out of work and going hungry. The sexual assault allegations against Biden are serious, concerning, and deserving of further scrutiny -- but it doesn't bolster Trump because he is a known sexual predator.

The sexual assault thing could hurt Biden by depressing his turnout. Obviously no one is going to vote for Trump because of it. With the economic issues that likely won't be resolved by November no one will care about something dumb like the Hunter Biden report, though.

[Badger]

Kansas: PPP, April 13-14, 1271 voters

Approve 52
Disapprove 43

Weak. Very weak for a Presidential nominee, especially an incumbent, in Kansas.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

If you are trying to assess President Trump's chances on a state-by-state basis, I always felt you should make your entire map code one shade less red, specifically to put states where his disapproval is under 50% but still exceeds his approval rating in the white area indicating an effective tie.

That is much more accurate to his chances as, as 2016 demonstrated, a significant number of Voters will disapprove of trump but still ultimately vote for him anyway as the lesser of two evils. Your current color coding is accurate as being too Trump friendly, IMHO

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: PPP, April 14-15, 1318 voters

Favorability, not approval, but still interesting:

Trump favorability 45
Unfavorability 50

In the 2020 matchup, it's Biden 48, Trump 47 -- despite Biden having a worse favorability (39/50).  The sample reports voting for Trump over Clinton 47-43.

Senate: Cunningham 47, Tillis 40

[BigSerg]

North Carolina: PPP, April 14-15, 1318 voters

Favorability, not approval, but still interesting:

Trump favorability 45
Unfavorability 50

In the 2020 matchup, it's Biden 48, Trump 47 -- despite Biden having a worse favorability (39/50).  The sample reports voting for Trump over Clinton 47-43.

Senate: Cunningham 47, Tillis 40

Lol hmm
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1250774109144875008?s=19

[wbrocks67]

North Carolina: PPP, April 14-15, 1318 voters

Favorability, not approval, but still interesting:

Trump favorability 45
Unfavorability 50

In the 2020 matchup, it's Biden 48, Trump 47 -- despite Biden having a worse favorability (39/50).  The sample reports voting for Trump over Clinton 47-43.

Senate: Cunningham 47, Tillis 40

Lol hmm
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1250774109144875008?s=19

LOL it wasn't an OANN poll but it might as well have been

[Gass3268]

Trump is collapsing

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1250844159684030468?s=20

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting in the Gallup poll:

Congress may be enjoying a rally of its own, and one that may be persisting. Currently, 30% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, up from 22% in early March. Congressional members' bipartisan work that led to the recent $2 trillion stimulus package may have boosted Americans' ratings of the legislative branch to the 30% mark this month -- a feat not seen in more than a decade.

Congress' ratings ranged between 31% and 39% for most of 2009 when Barack Obama was enjoying his presidential honeymoon and working with Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress. In October 2009, it sank below 30% and remained below that level for the decade that followed -- including a record low of 9% in November 2013 after the federal government shutdown that fall.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/308675/trump-job-rating-slides-satisfaction-tumbles.aspx

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Interesting in the Gallup poll:

Congress may be enjoying a rally of its own, and one that may be persisting. Currently, 30% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, up from 22% in early March. Congressional members' bipartisan work that led to the recent $2 trillion stimulus package may have boosted Americans' ratings of the legislative branch to the 30% mark this month -- a feat not seen in more than a decade.

Congress' ratings ranged between 31% and 39% for most of 2009 when Barack Obama was enjoying his presidential honeymoon and working with Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress. In October 2009, it sank below 30% and remained below that level for the decade that followed -- including a record low of 9% in November 2013 after the federal government shutdown that fall.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/308675/trump-job-rating-slides-satisfaction-tumbles.aspx

Wow.  Has anyone anywhere (even on these forums) talked about a Congressional rally?

[forgotten manatee]

Trump is collapsing

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1250844159684030468?s=20

He's not really collapsing, he's just going back to where he was before the GOP circled the wagons for the impeachment hearings. His impeachment "acquittal" coincided with the last gasp of the Obama economic miracle, and the combined effects helped him rise to the mid and upper 40s. He's now just regressing to the low 40s/high 30s, which is where he normally would be when enough Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans are fed up. I fully subscribe to Rachel Bitecofer's theory that negative partisanship means he is unlikely to see his approval rating crater into the 20s, and that it may even float back up again as the 2020 campaign unfolds and independent-leaning Republican voters return to the fold.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We still have 6 mnths til the election here and incumbent approvals tend to lag. Bush Sr came back in the final days of the campaign but as we know Ross Perot cost his reelection,  Bush W came back and so did Obama. There has been no campaigning

Biden will replicate the 279 EC map but a wipe out is far from assured

[Person Man]

We still have 6 mnths til the election here and incumbent approvals tend to lag. Bush Sr came back in the final days of the campaign but as we know Ross Perot cost his reelection,  Bush W came back and so did Obama. There has been no campaigning

Biden will replicate the 279 EC map but a wipe out is far from assured

Obama was never really behind. It was really tough trying to spin that first Presidential Debate in 2012. He fell to dead even with Romney until the next debate. Biden was kind of a dick in the Veep debate, but Ryan deserved it. I guess Bush looked DOA in June, so there is precedent for president to "come back". However, Carter was doing OK until the middle of Fall. He was actually tied in some final round of polling.

[tagimaucia]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

[President Johnson]

Trump is collapsing

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1250844159684030468?s=20

If that trend goes on, he will be C(r)artered in November.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm old enough to remember when certain posters were confidently predicting Trump's approval would be in the 50's by now.

Oh wait, that was last month.

[Person Man]

Trump is collapsing

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1250844159684030468?s=20

If that trend goes on, he will be C(r)artered in November.

He's just going back to normal. If he somehow wins because enough people in the Great Lakes and Florida "forget" to vote again, he will probably be in the high 20s once people realize they can't vote for him again.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

Part of me would've loved to have been politically aware (or...alive, even) during America Decides '92.  Seems like such an interesting and unique election. 

[Person Man]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

Part of me would've loved to have been politically aware (or...alive, even) during America Decides '92.  Seems like such an interesting and unique election. 

I turned 7 that year. It was the first election I remember a lot of.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

Part of me would've loved to have been politically aware (or...alive, even) during America Decides '92.  Seems like such an interesting and unique election. 

I turned 7 that year. It was the first election I remember a lot of.

I would've just wanted to see Ross Perot and his charts....

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

Part of me would've loved to have been politically aware (or...alive, even) during America Decides '92.  Seems like such an interesting and unique election. 

Were you politically aware for 2000? That was a hoot and a half. I was seven and remember it to an extent.