Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[pbrower2a]

Re: the MSN "polls". I posted this in another thread, and it too much effort on my part to do differently here. It is germane to this discussion, so here it is. Thus "12R" is a 12-point gap favoring the Republican (Trump), "tie" means exactly what you think it means, and "5D" means that a 5% gap favors the Democrat (Biden)

 

Showing the trend, which really counts.

Reliably R:

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
AL	16R	19R	12R
IN	10R	10R	5R
KS	16R	15R	12R

States racially-polarized (usually R, but oddities this year):

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
LA	2R	4R	2D
MS	3R	6R	1R
SC	6R	3R	2R

Fringe of contention Trump wins, 2016

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
GA	TIE	2R	4D
NC	5D	4D	10D
TX	4R	2R	TIE

Obama 2012/Trump 2016 + AZ

 

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
AZ	1R	1D	5D
FL	6D	6D	11D
IA	TIE	1D	6D
MI	8D	8D	11D
OH	1R	2R	5D
PA	7D	11D	12D
WI	4D	5D	8D

Bare Trump losses 2016

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
ME	12D	13D	17D
MN	15D	16D	21D
NH	1D	2D	7D
NV	12D	12D	16D

Fringe of contention against Trump, 2016

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
CO	10D	11D	15D
NM	17D	19D	18D
VA	9D	8D	13D

Reliably D

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
CT	23D	25D	28D
IL	24D	24D	28D
WA	22D	22D	28D

D max-out

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
CA	32D	33D	36D
MD	30D	29D	34D
NY	31D	32D	37D

I have generally sought to have states in voting categories that are diverse in demographics and geography. I have only two states with fewer than six electoral votes.  

Do I think this polling completely reliable? Hardly. It rules out people who have no Internet access or do not know how to use it. That likely means older, poorer, less-educated people. If such people are Hispanic or non-white then that means little because poorer people in  such populations vote much like the younger, richer, better-educated people in their groups. The sorts of people that Hillary Clinton understandably yet regrettably called a "basket of deplorable(s)", the "low-information voters" for which Trump expressed love, are likely under-represented. This likely most applies to the states that I have placed in the "racially-polarized" category, where white people are especially likely to at least be poorer and less educated... in states in which usually voting divides neatly on ethnic lines.  

Still, although I see effectively no change between March 1 and March 15, I see an overall swing of about 5% in practically all states. This is consistent with the Quinnipiac poll (+8) from the middle of last week, one for CNN (+11), and the poll by a British pollster with whom I am unfamiliar (+12). I would not be surprised to find polling by news agencies in countries that find, except for COVID-19, the 2020 Presidential election of the United States to the most likely biggest story of the year.  

Collapses happen in Presidential races, and they usually have obvious and evident cause.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MSN wasted money on spending money on states that's not gonna be competetive due to the fact that Senate races are important factors in the Prez matchup as well. That's why they should of polled the Senate races in conjunction with the Prez race and they would have saved themselves time that AZ, CO, ME and MT are Dem pickups and can go with the 278 blue wall

That's why www.electionprojection.com still has 278 blue wall minus AZ in the Senate still as a prediction.

[forgotten manatee]

Is Morning Consult no longer doing state by state approvals?

[pbrower2a]

MSN wasted money on spending money on states that's not gonna be competetive due to the fact that Senate races are important factors in the Prez matchup as well. That's why they should of polled the Senate races in conjunction with the Prez race and they would have saved themselves time that AZ, CO, ME and MT are Dem pickups and can go with the 278 blue wall

That's why www.electionprojection.com still has 278 blue wall minus AZ in the Senate still as a prediction.

Even a six-month-old poll can be relevant when nothing changes on net. But should there be a surge or collapse, even a two-week-old poll can be worthless. President Trump has taken a big hit in every category of state that I showed -- four to six points in the spread with Biden. Maybe you can contest these polls for distortion due to competition of the people polled (because it is an Internet poll it is likely to understate the number of older and under-educated people who, if white, vote very differently from younger, better-educated white people, and of course more sympathetically for Trump.

The pattern seems to hold in every category of states -- most seriously in the states that were in meaningful contest in 2016. Were Trump projecting to do about as well in 2020 as in 2016, then the polling situation would look more like that of March 1 than of April 9. The shift is out of the range of margin of error, and to my surprise it is quite uniform.  

www.electionprojection.com may be accurate for what it shows at a certain time, but that is obsolete.

You can trust that there will be more polling, so if you see something like "Pennsylvania -- Trump approval 38%, disapproval 57%" instead of "Pennsylvania -- Trump approval 44%, disapproval 52%"... then this polling will be more consistent.

When the earliest thread about Trump approval and disapproval was made, I tried to interpret approval and disapproval numbers in a way predicting the 2020 election. Trump was likely to win any state in which his approval was 50% or higher and had little chance, barring big changes, of any state in which his disapproval was over 52% Trump approval and disapproval over time was remarkably stable. That seems to now be no longer the case.

Trump could win with a 3% margin against him because almost all of that margin was in states far out of meaningful contest. He loses narrowly with a margin of 4% against him. When the margin gets to 7% he loses by the same percentage margin as Dukakis in 1988 or McCain in 2008. At 8% (the Quinnipiac poll from basically a week ago and reported in the middle of this week) he loses 54-46, which means that he is losing 3/4 of the electoral vote (roughly 400-138). At this point I would make the case that the difference between 375 and 413 electoral votes for Biden is Texas. At 11% or 12%, weird things are happening. If erosion of the tribal white vote in the Mountain and Deep South begins (the white vote goes about 80-20 in such states), then those states return to patterns characteristic of (Bill) Clinton wins in the 1990's or even of the Carter win of 1976.

Should the Trump campaign collapse as I see it based on the Quinnipiac, CNN, and Lord Ashton Polls... attention will naturally go to the Senate.  

[pbrower2a]

Is Morning Consult no longer doing state by state approvals?

The last ones that I saw were issued in February.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

www.electionprojection goes by what Larry Sabato Crystal Ball and so far Sabato Crystal ball has 278 blue wall still alive and well and has only moved ME and CO to Likely D, for Senate, well within the 278 Blue wall.

[pbrower2a]

www.electionprojection.com goes by what Larry Sabato Crystal Ball and so far Sabato Crystal ball has 278 blue wall still alive and well and has only moved ME and CO to Likely D, for Senate, well within the 278 Blue wall.

It was reasonable at the time because the polling reality was generally changing slowly if at all, and was highly responsive if a poll showed a change in any one state.

Should there be a pervasive shift as the MSN data suggests, then what may have been high accuracy may become irrelevant.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Garin-Hart-Yang: April 6-8

National (1003 RV):

Biden 50
Trump 43

Trump approval: 46/54


Michigan (303 LV):

Biden 50
Trump 41

Trump approval: 44/56


Wisconsin (301 LV):

Biden 48
Trump 47

Trump approval: 48/52

[GP270watch]

Garin-Hart-Yang: April 6-8

National (1003 RV):

Biden 50
Trump 43

Trump approval: 46/54


Michigan (303 LV):

Biden 50
Trump 41

Trump approval: 44/56


Wisconsin (301 LV):

Biden 48
Trump 47

Trump approval: 48/52

 Wisconsin is going to fumble away the whole damn thing.

[pbrower2a]

Utah: Y2 Analytics, March 21-30, 1331 RV

Trump 46
Biden 41

That Trump can't crack 50 in Utah shows how out of tough he is with Utah values. Utah is the wrong state in which to have a sexual morality adapted from Hugh Hefner, and Mormons are not ignorant hicks.  This is before the apparent crash in Trump support.

Garin-Hart-Yang: April 6-8

National (1003 RV):

Biden 50
Trump 43

Trump approval: 46/54


Michigan (303 LV):

Biden 50
Trump 41

Trump approval: 44/56


Wisconsin (301 LV):

Biden 48
Trump 47

Trump approval: 48/52

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1249779817958068226

[forgotten manatee]

Garin-Hart-Yang: April 6-8

National (1003 RV):

Biden 50
Trump 43

Trump approval: 46/54


Michigan (303 LV):

Biden 50
Trump 41

Trump approval: 44/56


Wisconsin (301 LV):

Biden 48
Trump 47

Trump approval: 48/52

 Wisconsin is going to fumble away the whole damn thing.

That is why Biden needs to contest Wisconsin, but also Florida and the rest of the Midwest and Sun Belt. No false choices. We need an insurance policy because it seems like the dumbbells in Wisconsin outnumber the smart people.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Garin-Hart-Yang: April 6-8

National (1003 RV):

Biden 50
Trump 43

Trump approval: 46/54


Michigan (303 LV):

Biden 50
Trump 41

Trump approval: 44/56


Wisconsin (301 LV):

Biden 48
Trump 47

Trump approval: 48/52

 Wisconsin is going to fumble away the whole damn thing.

That is why Biden needs to contest Wisconsin, but also Florida and the rest of the Midwest and Sun Belt. No false choices. We need an insurance policy because it seems like the dumbbells in Wisconsin outnumber the smart people.

Wisconsin will be contested, don't you worry. Today's Supreme Court race results just cements how important it is and how winnable it still is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maine: Critical Insights, 600 RV during March (exact dates not specified).  Change is from their Fall 2019 survey.

Approve 36 (-5)
Disapprove 57 (+4)

Maine politicians:

Sen. Collins: Approve 37 (-5), Disapprove 52 (+10)
Sen. King: Approve 59 (+4), Disapprove 21 (-8)
Gov. Mills: Approve 60 (+13), Disapprove 26 (-12)
Rep. Pingree: Approve 51 (+13), Disapprove 19 (-14)
Rep. Golden: Approve 42 (-2), Disapprove 19 (-3)

[pbrower2a]

Maine: Critical Insights, 600 RV during March (exact dates not specified).  Change is from their Fall 2019 survey.

Approve 36 (-5)
Disapprove 57 (+4)

Maine politicians:

Sen. Collins: Approve 37 (-5), Disapprove 52 (+10)
Sen. King: Approve 59 (+4), Disapprove 21 (-8)
Gov. Mills: Approve 60 (+13), Disapprove 26 (-12)
Rep. Pingree: Approve 51 (+13), Disapprove 19 (-14)
Rep. Golden: Approve 42 (-2), Disapprove 19 (-3)

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[Badger]

Garin-Hart-Yang: April 6-8

National (1003 RV):

Biden 50
Trump 43

Trump approval: 46/54


Michigan (303 LV):

Biden 50
Trump 41

Trump approval: 44/56


Wisconsin (301 LV):

Biden 48
Trump 47

Trump approval: 48/52

 Wisconsin is going to fumble away the whole damn thing.

I think this is the biggest difference between WI and MI:

Thinking specifically about your state, would you say the coronavirus outbreak is…?
                                                                   All MI WI
Already a crisis in your state......................... 62 87 37
Likely to become a crisis in your state .......... 30 12 49
Not likely to become a crisis in your state..... 8 1 14

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

www.electionprojection.com goes by what Larry Sabato Crystal Ball and so far Sabato Crystal ball has 278 blue wall still alive and well and has only moved ME and CO to Likely D, for Senate, well within the 278 Blue wall.

It was reasonable at the time because the polling reality was generally changing slowly if at all, and was highly responsive if a poll showed a change in any one state.

Should there be a pervasive shift as the MSN data suggests, then what may have been high accuracy may become irrelevant.

Yes, as I stated yesterday,  the polls coming from MSN are online polls and Trump has a 51 percent approval rating in FL, GA, TX, the election projection is accurate, but has Trump narrowly winning. Sabato isnt changing his rating based on Biden +10 polls due to fact, they will indeed get back to normal. Biden has been accused of sexual assault and Ukraine report on Hunter Biden is due put in Aug

Biden.poll numbers will return back to normal

[wbrocks67]

The latest Navigator tracking survey has coronavirus approval at its lowest in weeks for Trump, at 46% approve, 50% disapprove

Overall approval is 46/52

https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Navigator-Daily-Tracker-Topline-F04.13.20.pdf

[HisGrace]

Trump is already in trouble, the 278 states are stacked against him this time. Like it was for GW Bush, but he managed 44 percent of the Latino vote by having Jeb as Gov of FL to take from Dems, that Trump doesn't have. Trump only won FL due to Rubio dropping out of campaign and running for Senate. Without McCain or Rubio on ballot in 2020, Trump is certainly to lose the minority vote by a wider margin.

Not sure how much McCain helped him in AZ. Somebody who was going to come out specifically to vote for McCain probably wasn't going to vote for Trump.

[pbrower2a]

Garin-Hart-Yang: April 6-8

National (1003 RV):

Biden 50
Trump 43

Trump approval: 46/54


Michigan (303 LV):

Biden 50
Trump 41

Trump approval: 44/56


Wisconsin (301 LV):

Biden 48
Trump 47

Trump approval: 48/52

 Wisconsin is going to fumble away the whole damn thing.

I think this is the biggest difference between WI and MI:

Thinking specifically about your state, would you say the coronavirus outbreak is…?
                                                                   All MI WI
Already a crisis in your state......................... 62 87 37
Likely to become a crisis in your state .......... 30 12 49
Not likely to become a crisis in your state..... 8 1 14

That is a huge difference. At this point I could imagine being stopped by state troopers in some states simply for having a Michigan license plate on my car. I make it a point not to cross into Ohio or Indiana on a freeway. Instead of getting a breathalyzer test if I did some erratic driving I might get a test for COVID-19 for being from so 'toxic' a state.

In any event -- there isn't any place worth going to except for the food store. Although I will take a trip to give blood, which I strongly endorse everyone doing if possible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden has just accused or sexually assaulting women again and the Hunter Biden report is due out in Aug, by Congressional Rs and Rob Johnson. Chris Matthew's,  whom was biased towards Biden and the secular press has given Biden a free pass during primaries. The polls are gonna get tighter as they always have and Trump may indeed take a small lead by the his convention

269-269 tie and way back to White House is thru the R delegation in the House

[GeorgiaModerate]

Civiqs, April 11-14, 1600 adults (change from Feb.)

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Coronavirus handling (change from March): Approve 42 (-2), Disapprove 54 (+3)

Biden 48 (nc), Trump 44 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 12-14, 1500 adults including 1166 RV

Adults:

Approve 46 (+1)
Disapprove 48 (-3)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 38 (nc)


RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 28 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+2)

2020 (RV only): Biden 48 (nc), Trump 43 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (-1), R 40 (+1)

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Biden has just accused or sexually assaulting women again and the Hunter Biden report is due out in Aug, by Congressional Rs and Rob Johnson. Chris Matthew's,  whom was biased towards Biden and the secular press has given Biden a free pass during primaries. The polls are gonna get tighter as they always have and Trump may indeed take a small lead by the his convention

269-269 tie and way back to White House is thru the R delegation in the House

Durham report lurking too....

[tagimaucia]

Biden has just accused or sexually assaulting women again and the Hunter Biden report is due out in Aug, by Congressional Rs and Rob Johnson. Chris Matthew's,  whom was biased towards Biden and the secular press has given Biden a free pass during primaries. The polls are gonna get tighter as they always have and Trump may indeed take a small lead by the his convention

269-269 tie and way back to White House is thru the R delegation in the House

Biden is a very weak candidate in a vacuum, but double digit negative real GDP shrinkage and double digit unemployment will hurt Trump more than any of the above will hurt Biden. The horse race will be worse for Trump in a few months, not better, imo.  Recessions and economic contractions usually take a couple quarters to sink in and really take a political toll and that toll will come at the worst possible time for Trump.