Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Confused Democrat]

I don’t like that the reps have a larger ED to work with

It's just an assumption. It's still possible that Dems could win ED. I think they won it in 2012.

[Nyvin]

The early vote in Florida doesn't really tell much though, the NPA's are way too numerous to draw any predictions from it.

[Gass3268]

The early vote in Florida doesn't really tell much though, the NPA's are way too numerous to draw any predictions from it.

Exactly, I am just happy that it appears Democrats have been able to battle it down to essentially a tie.

[OneJ]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1059255830950879233

 

Still won't make a difference in the end. Cruz will win.

True. FWIW, I still think Cruz will win by a rather underwhelming margin, but I’d be surprised if Beto keeps the race within five points let alone winning on Election Day. I’m just happy about the surge in youth turnout in general.

[SCNCmod]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1059255830950879233

In theory- the Under 40 vote have gained 11% of the share of electorate. (That's a 640,000 increase in share... so far).

In 2016... Trump won the state by 800,000 votes out of 8.5M votes cast.

No exact science there... but with that big of an increase in the Under 40% of the electorate (which one would assume is very heavily Beto)...it the % share holds...  you start to see a way for Beto to make up an 800,000 deficit (actually less is you assume Total votes in 2018 will be less than 2016).

----------

I've thought Beto had a better than 50% chance of winning the past couple of week (I just can't imagine Beto having that much energy and buzz and not winning... esp with such a lack of energy for Ted).   But seeing what such an increase in under 40s can mean in actual votes- Now a really think Beto is more likely to win than Ted.

[Calthrina950]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1059255830950879233

 

Still won't make a difference in the end. Cruz will win.

True. FWIW, I still think Cruz will win by a rather underwhelming margin, but I’d be surprised if Beto keeps the race within five points let alone winning on Election Day. I’m just happy about the surge in youth turnout in general.

I am glad about that surge as well. Given how hard our ancestors fought to gain the right to vote, I think that people nowadays need to take full advantage of it. Moreover, Texas has traditionally had one of the lowest turnout rates in the country.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1059255830950879233

In theory- the Under 40 vote have gained 11% of the share of electorate. (That's a 640,000 increase in share... so far).

In 2016... Trump won the state by 800,000 votes out of 8.5M votes cast.

No exact science there... but with that big of an increase in the Under 40% of the electorate (which one would assume is very heavily Beto)...it the % share holds...  you start to see a way for Beto to make up an 800,000 deficit (actually less is you assume Total votes in 2018 will be less than 2016).

----------

I've thought Beto had a better than 50% chance of winning the past couple of week (I just can't imagine Beto having that much energy and buzz and not winning... esp with such a lack of energy for Ted).   But seeing what such an increase in under 40s can mean in actual votes- Now a really think Beto is more likely to win than Ted.

I really want Beto to win as well, but we have to remain level headed here. Remember the crowds Sanders was drawing in the 2016 primary? That didn't do him any good when it came time to actually cast ballots.

And as a former Hillary voter, I'm now supporting a candidate in a race who is on the other side of that "grassroots" enthusiasm gap and it is very frustrating.

[henster]

The hype built up around Beto is unfortunate given the likely outcome. Wish people were more grounded instead of getting so emotionally involved just makes the end result even harder on people.

[Sestak]

FLORIDA FREIWAL

TEXAS FREIWAL

[Calthrina950]

The hype built up around Beto is unfortunate given the likely outcome. Wish people were more grounded instead of getting so emotionally involved just makes the end result even harder on people.

My sentiments exactly. A lot of people will be having a breakdown on here in just two days, once Cruz is projected as the victor.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The hype built up around Beto is unfortunate given the likely outcome. Wish people were more grounded instead of getting so emotionally involved just makes the end result even harder on people.

My sentiments exactly. A lot of people will be having a breakdown on here in just two days, once Cruz is projected as the victor.

[musicblind]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1059255830950879233

 

Still won't make a difference in the end. Cruz will win.

Of course, he will. It's Texas. At this point, it's about getting it down to single digit margins as a means of sending a message.

[musicblind]

The hype built up around Beto is unfortunate given the likely outcome. Wish people were more grounded instead of getting so emotionally involved just makes the end result even harder on people.

My sentiments exactly. A lot of people will be having a breakdown on here in just two days, once Cruz is projected as the victor.

I highly doubt anyone on here will be having a breakdown. We are students of the game. Most of us are expert politicos.

If you want to see breakdowns over a Cruz's victory, that's what twitter is for.

[MT Treasurer]

Montana, as of 11/4/2018:

County (2016-Pres, 2017-AL, 2016-GOV)  (vs. 11/1)

Yellowstone County (Trump +27, Gianforte +18, Gianforte +1): 76% of ballots returned (55.329/72.760) (+5.8%)

Missoula County (Clinton +16, Quist +32, Bullock +34): 68.2% of ballots returned (39.243/57.507) (+5.4%)

Gallatin County (Clinton +1, Quist +14, Bullock +15): 64.7% of ballots returned (36.133/55.805) (+6.2%)

Flathead County (Trump +36, Gianforte +19, Gianforte +15): 66.5% of ballots returned (24.286/36.535) (+4.6%)

Cascade County (Trump +22, Gianforte +7, Bullock +10): 69% of ballots returned (23.084/33.435) (+2.8%)

Lewis and Clark County (Trump +7, Quist +9, Bullock +23): 74.8% of ballots returned (21.963/29.354) (+5.5%)

Ravalli County (Trump +38, Gianforte +24, Gianforte +14): 76.2% of ballots returned (12.769/16.754) (+4.1%)

Silver Bow County (Clinton +14, Quist +34, Bullock +44): 71.9 69.9% of ballots returned (8.564/11.911) (+2%)

Lake County (Trump +21, Gianforte +7, Bullock +2): 74.2% of ballots returned (7.309/9.847) (+5.6%)

Bonus: Garfield County (Trump +86, Gianforte +85, Gianforte +66): 77.7% of ballots returned (299/385)

-------
Statewide: 71.2% of ballots returned (303.457/426.361) (+5.3%)

[colincb]

The hype built up around Beto is unfortunate given the likely outcome. Wish people were more grounded instead of getting so emotionally involved just makes the end result even harder on people.

My sentiments exactly. A lot of people will be having a breakdown on here in just two days, once Cruz is projected as the victor.

That's nonsense.

[Panda Express]

Colorado Update vs this point in time in 2014 (in parenthesis)

Democrats 423,791 (446,448)
Republicans  424,010 (558,966)
Independent  364,716 (359,496)

TOTAL  1,227,135 (1,379,562)

Rethugs had a 114,000 vote lead at this point in time in 2014, compared to a mere 301 vote lead now. Overall turnout is rather disappointing though.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Colorado Update vs this point in time in 2014 (in parenthesis)

Democrats 423,791 (446,448)
Republicans  424,010 (558,966)
Independent  364,716 (359,496)

TOTAL  1,227,135 (1,379,562)

Rethugs had a 114,000 vote lead at this point in time in 2014, compared to a mere 301 vote lead now. Overall turnout is rather disappointing though.

There is no marquee statewide race this time. Even the gubernatorial one was an afterthought.

[wbrocks67]

It's really odd to me why people continue to act like Beto can't win. Sure, is it likely? Probably not. But it's not impossible. I don't get why people here are instantly writing it off. Bad analyzation.

[Brittain33]

It's really odd to me why people continue to act like Beto can't win. Sure, is it likely? Probably not. But it's not impossible. I don't get why people here are instantly writing it off. Bad analyzation.

Yeah. We all can make the arguments why Cruz is favored, but this election is a gamechanger in Texas with a different electorate and the first seriously contested race since 2002, so no one should have any confidence in what they believe *must* be happening. It's not hard to envision scenarios where Beto wins narrowly.

[Comrade Funk]

It's really odd to me why people continue to act like Beto can't win. Sure, is it likely? Probably not. But it's not impossible. I don't get why people here are instantly writing it off. Bad analyzation.

Because we're in a perpetual state of Dems in Disarray.

[Crumpets]

It's really odd to me why people continue to act like Beto can't win. Sure, is it likely? Probably not. But it's not impossible. I don't get why people here are instantly writing it off. Bad analyzation.

The biggest issue in my mind is the polling. Underdogs win races all the time, but typically these are races with sparse, low-quality polling, such as the Brat vs. Cantor primary. In Texas, we've gotten loads of high quality polls that all speak to a small Cruz lead. If Beto wins, we would expect to have seen at lest a couple of polls go his way. The only way Beto pulls this out is by undecideds breaking overwhelmingly in his favor, or every major pollster misjudging the national environment in favor of the Republicans.

[Comrade Funk]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1059423294301110272

[ON Progressive]

I read on twitter, some polling stations in parts of Florida panhandle are open today, is that true ?

Untrue. Early voting is over.

[ajc0918]

I read on twitter, some polling stations in parts of Florida panhandle are open today, is that true ?

Untrue. Early voting is over.

You're wrong. They extended early voting in certain Panhandle counties due to the hurricane and the delay in being able to send in absentee ballots.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/280094-six-storm-struck-counties

[ON Progressive]

I read on twitter, some polling stations in parts of Florida panhandle are open today, is that true ?

Untrue. Early voting is over.

You're wrong. They extended early voting in certain Panhandle counties due to the hurricane and the delay in being able to send in absentee ballots.

Ah, ok. My mistake. What counties?