Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Calthrina950]

Democrats gained almost another point in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1058071032664215552

Still not good, given that Dems ended early voting with a 4-5 point deficit behind Republicans.  Democrats are going to have to turn out like crazy today and tomorrow to have a chance.

Again, you don't know how people are voting. Or how Indies are voting.

This is very much true. I saw a article somewhere saying that 7% of Republicans support Sinema, compared to 4% of Democrats who are backing McSally. And that Sinema is leading among independents something like 58-32%. Such numbers point to a narrow (~2-4 pt.) Sinema victory.

[Calthrina950]

Democrats gained almost another point in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1058071032664215552

Still not good, given that Dems ended early voting with a 4-5 point deficit behind Republicans.  Democrats are going to have to turn out like crazy today and tomorrow to have a chance.

Again, you don't know how people are voting. Or how Indies are voting.

This is very much true. I saw a article somewhere saying that 7% of Republicans support Sinema, compared to 4% of Democrats who are backing McSally. And that Sinema is leading among independents something like 58-32%. Such numbers point to a narrow (~2-4 pt.) Sinema victory.

So it's not that Democrats are staying home. Its whether moderate/libertarian Republicans  come home or Independents get cold feet.

Exactly. And I don't think McSally can erase that kind of deficit with independents at this point. As for the Republican base in Arizona, they have never been enthused with McSally as their nominee, and of course, you have the more moderate ones who disapprove of Trump, who like Sinema's centrism, and who may have been turned off by McSally's recent flip-flopping on the issues. These factors are why I believe Sinema will win on Tuesday.

[Calthrina950]

COLORADO UPDATE

Friday before election now vs 2014. As you can see, it's basically a dead heat between Dems and Rethugs. However, Rethugs were ahead by 100,000 ballots 4 years ago at this time so quite a difference.


Now vs 2014 (in parenthesis)


Democrats  381,411 (371,190)
Republicans  382,028 (475,667)
Independent 324,363 (290,600)

TOTAL 1,100,690 (1,149,745)

These returns make it clear that, like always, independents will decide the outcome of the statewide races in Colorado this year. Democrats are slightly exceeding their turnout from four years ago, while Republicans are down from those levels considerably. Independents are up by a sizable margin, as well.

[Calthrina950]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1059255830950879233

 

Still won't make a difference in the end. Cruz will win.

[Calthrina950]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1059255830950879233

 

Still won't make a difference in the end. Cruz will win.

True. FWIW, I still think Cruz will win by a rather underwhelming margin, but I’d be surprised if Beto keeps the race within five points let alone winning on Election Day. I’m just happy about the surge in youth turnout in general.

I am glad about that surge as well. Given how hard our ancestors fought to gain the right to vote, I think that people nowadays need to take full advantage of it. Moreover, Texas has traditionally had one of the lowest turnout rates in the country.

[Calthrina950]

The hype built up around Beto is unfortunate given the likely outcome. Wish people were more grounded instead of getting so emotionally involved just makes the end result even harder on people.

My sentiments exactly. A lot of people will be having a breakdown on here in just two days, once Cruz is projected as the victor.

[Calthrina950]

Colorado Update vs this point in time in 2014 (in parenthesis)

Democrats 423,791 (446,448)
Republicans  424,010 (558,966)
Independent  364,716 (359,496)

TOTAL  1,227,135 (1,379,562)

Rethugs had a 114,000 vote lead at this point in time in 2014, compared to a mere 301 vote lead now. Overall turnout is rather disappointing though.

I have no idea why you have a blue avatar when you clearly despise the Republican Party. But at any rate, I wonder what these results foretell for tomorrow.

[Calthrina950]

Colorado Update vs this point in time in 2014 (in parenthesis)

Democrats 423,791 (446,448)
Republicans  424,010 (558,966)
Independent  364,716 (359,496)

TOTAL  1,227,135 (1,379,562)

Rethugs had a 114,000 vote lead at this point in time in 2014, compared to a mere 301 vote lead now. Overall turnout is rather disappointing though.

I have no idea why you have a blue avatar when you clearly despise the Republican Party. But at any rate, I wonder what these results foretell for tomorrow.

Because blue looks cooler than red. Everyone always went for the blue raspberry Otter Pop over the cherry one.

I see. I'm still interested in hearing any perspectives on how the elections in Colorado will go tomorrow.

[Calthrina950]

CO might be "all-mail" (in theory), but in 2016, there were 2.86 million total ballots cast - but only 2.22 million of them were mailed back.

640k people voted or dropped off their ballots on election day.

Also, more than 300.000 ballots were received over the weekend in CO and the new total until noon today is 1.52 million received.

With the additional ballots coming in today and tomorrow and election day voters/dropoffs, the final number should hit 2 million or more.

Interesting to read this information about Colorado from other, non-native posters. Colorado does have one of the country's easiest and most efficient voting processes, and that is probably a major reason why we tend to have one of the highest turnout rates in the nation (if I am not mistaken, over 70% of eligible Colorado voters cast a ballot in 2016). It has certainly made the process much easier for me.

Are there any other perspectives as to what the returned ballots might indicate for the actual statewide results in the various races?

[Calthrina950]

Last Colorado Update


51% of ballots returned


As of Monday - 2018 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  554,809 (564,488)
Republicans  556,119 (693,983)
Independent 505,496 (491,591)

TOTAL 1,636,971 (2,215,258)

Really curious how Colorado will vote this cycle. I was telling someone else last night that the last time CO's House popular vote went for Democrats was in 2008. Every election after that has been a series of small-medium GOP pluralities, even in 2012. They also seem to give a lot of votes to Libertarians and other 3rd parties, so not sure who that hurts more. Suffice to say that CO would be a good place to implement RCV in the future.

As someone else noted CO Indies lean incredibly Left, I recall seeing somewhere that Boulder was only plurality Dem by registration because of the indie numbers.

That probably indicates a Democratic sweep of all the statewide offices tonight. Republicans are down by a substantial amount from their 2014 levels of turnout, whereas independents are slightly ahead of them and Democrats are slightly below them.