Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Nyvin]

It'll be really interesting to see Washoe's end of week data.   

Still kinda early to call two day's worth any kind of trend.

[Nyvin]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

[Nyvin]

If nothing else I think we can conclude this will be a high turnout election.

[Nyvin]

If nothing else I think we can conclude this will be a high turnout election.

This posting is wrong ... and wrong in 2 ways:

A) just because there's an increase in early/absentee voting, it doesn't necessarily mean overall turnout will be higher. Early voting could also taper off, or election day turnout could be lower.

B) in the US, no election is "high turnout". Even in a Presidential election, the US does not manage to get higher than 60%. In mid-term elections, it's somewhere between 38-45%, which is horrible. Even if it ends up higher this time (45%), it's utterly horrible when compared with other countries.

B is a moot point.   If you compare to international rates of course every election is low.   I was obviously comparing it to other midterms, hence giving the term meaning.

A is more subjective.   It would take an enormous drop for it to go to regular midterm levels at this point.  I would say it's much more likely the public is enthusiastic about voting rather than everyone switching to early voting suddenly, which makes no sense.

[Nyvin]

On Texas

We've seen this Movie before in 2016 with the high Turnout and Hillary still couldn't win the State.

In fact, since Obamas 1st win Democrats desperatly trying to turn Texas Blue and it hasn't materialized. Stop this please.

The trend seems in Democrats favor though,  especially if 2018 numbers are like 2016 numbers it can't just be called a bad showing by Trump anymore.

[Nyvin]

The Blue Wave is officially dead (I know I said that before, but perhaps now people will listen). People are voting in 2016-level turnout. Didn't the Red Avatars here say that we needed a low turnout in order to the Blue Wave to happen?  

Uhh...no.   Where in the heck did you hear that?

[Nyvin]

Something about Arizona feels off. McSally has been acting for weeks like she is down and desperate while we haven’t heard anything from people like HotJosh that the GOP feels great in Arizona yet these #’s look like McSally has all but won

It doesn't look anything at all like McSally won.   We hardly know anything at this point.

[Nyvin]

North Carolina:

Not sure how best to interpret this data considering how many Demosaurs there are in the South

If Dems win anything in NC it'll just be icing on the cake anyway.

[Nyvin]

So it looks like today and tomorrow is "now or never" time for NVGOP

[Nyvin]

Democrats gained almost another point in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1058071032664215552

Still not good, given that Dems ended early voting with a 4-5 point deficit behind Republicans.  Democrats are going to have to turn out like crazy today and tomorrow to have a chance.

Not true.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058481174501195776

Holy cow, Clark turnout could hit 40K today.

So if Dems win by 10% that'd be roughly 4k added to the firewall,  which would then total something like 42k.

[Nyvin]

The concept of cannibalization is the most overrated thing of the 2018 election. A vote is a vote. If you get your sure and most frequent voters to go vote early you can spend time, energy, and money with your ground game to go after low propensity voters.

Cannibalization does sound extremely negative.   It's really just the normalization of early voting.  More and more people do it, and more and more people find they like it.   It's nothing bad happening to either party.

[Nyvin]

Massive line in Henderson:

https://twitter.com/k_newberg/status/1058552546027962368

Silverado Ranch is a GOP heavy area I think so may not be that good of news.

Someone posted a precinct map and said it was 60-34 Hillary.

Is this the place they're talking about?  It looks like it's in Enterprise, not Henderson.

[Nyvin]

Clark numbers are posted.    48,833 Total votes yesterday.

[Nyvin]

The early vote in Florida doesn't really tell much though, the NPA's are way too numerous to draw any predictions from it.

[Nyvin]

It should be noted the vast majority of people in those counties live in Bay, which is very Republican.

[Nyvin]

Some news from my county!  Looks like early voting was insane this year.  It feels awesome to be among the 38,583!

https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/early-voters-shatter-the-old-mark-for-midterm-elections-across/article_8bad2801-1bcf-5446-a4b8-c80a35fec014.html

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Does anyone besides me think this bodes well for Joe Donnelly, assuming turnout in these areas is high tomorrow as well?

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Sounds promising, but do you have any idea how it compares to the rest of the state and to 2016? It is obviously more of a big deal if the increase is greater than elsewhere.

Even more amazing considering Lake County has lost about 10k residents since 2010.