2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Bootes Void]

Elections project hasn't updated a couple states

[Dr. Arch]

+5M votes in the morning update. We are now at 45M, a third of the total 2016 votes.

Texas turnout is at... 66%(!!) of 2016.

[Gass3268]

The Milwaukee Suburbs have woken up and are clearly taking advantage of in-person absentee voting. Milwaukee County has cast the most in-person votes in the first two days, but Waukesha County has bested Dane County the past two days in in person absentee and total absentee. Waukesha County will probably jump to #2 in terms of % of 2016 voted returned in a day or two. Dane County is still adding more votes via mail/dropbox absentees than any county but Milwaukee County and is at almost 55% of 2016 vote. Dane's return rate has been pretty consistently going up at 2-3% every day.

Ozaukee County and Washington County are also seeing double digit % increases due to the start of in-person absentee. Other Republican counties are coming in strong too including Calumet County, Sheboygan County, Walworth County, and Manitowoc County all have double digit % increases.

It's not all lost for Democrats, lots of their secondary counties (especially those with state universities) are seeing significant increases. This includes La Crosse County, Kenosha County, Rock County, Portage County, and Eau Claire County. This college factor is also evident in Grant and Pierce  counties. Who's not voting yet? Basically the Central and Western rural counties. The bottom five counties from worst to best are Clark, Buffalo, Trempealeau, Pepin, and Rusk.

I don't think anyone should really freak out about these results. Wisconsin is one of the best voter turnout states in the country, only behind the VBM states and Minnesota. Republicans and Republican areas were going to turnout.

[wbrocks67]

The Milwaukee Suburbs have woken up and are clearly taking advantage of in-person absentee voting. Milwaukee County has cast the most in-person votes in the first two days, but Waukesha County has bested Dane County the past two days in in person absentee and total absentee. Waukesha County will probably jump to #2 in terms of % of 2016 voted returned in a day or two. Dane County is still adding more votes via mail/dropbox absentees than any county but Milwaukee County and is at almost 55% of 2016 vote. Dane's return rate has been pretty consistently going up at 2-3% every day.

Ozaukee County and Washington County are also seeing double digit % increases due to the start of in-person absentee. Other Republican counties are coming in strong too including Calumet County, Sheboygan County, Walworth County, and Manitowoc County all have double digit % increases.

It's not all lost for Democrats, lots of their secondary counties (especially those with state universities) are seeing significant increases. This includes La Crosse County, Kenosha County, Rock County, Portage County, and Eau Claire County. This college factor is also evident in Grant and Pierce  counties. Who's not voting yet? Basically the Central and Western rural counties. The bottom five counties from worst to best are Clark, Buffalo, Trempealeau, Pepin, and Rusk.

I don't think anyone should really freak out about these results. Wisconsin is one of the best voter turnout states in the country, only behind the VBM states and Minnesota. Republicans and Republican areas were going to turnout.

Isn't Waukesha trending Dem? So how would that be bad for Biden?

[Dr. Arch]

The Milwaukee Suburbs have woken up and are clearly taking advantage of in-person absentee voting. Milwaukee County has cast the most in-person votes in the first two days, but Waukesha County has bested Dane County the past two days in in person absentee and total absentee. Waukesha County will probably jump to #2 in terms of % of 2016 voted returned in a day or two. Dane County is still adding more votes via mail/dropbox absentees than any county but Milwaukee County and is at almost 55% of 2016 vote. Dane's return rate has been pretty consistently going up at 2-3% every day.

Ozaukee County and Washington County are also seeing double digit % increases due to the start of in-person absentee. Other Republican counties are coming in strong too including Calumet County, Sheboygan County, Walworth County, and Manitowoc County all have double digit % increases.

It's not all lost for Democrats, lots of their secondary counties (especially those with state universities) are seeing significant increases. This includes La Crosse County, Kenosha County, Rock County, Portage County, and Eau Claire County. This college factor is also evident in Grant and Pierce  counties. Who's not voting yet? Basically the Central and Western rural counties. The bottom five counties from worst to best are Clark, Buffalo, Trempealeau, Pepin, and Rusk.

I don't think anyone should really freak out about these results. Wisconsin is one of the best voter turnout states in the country, only behind the VBM states and Minnesota. Republicans and Republican areas were going to turnout.

It's worth mentioning that Dane continues to swing way above its actual portion of the electorate, which is usually a great sign.

[redjohn]

The Milwaukee Suburbs have woken up and are clearly taking advantage of in-person absentee voting. Milwaukee County has cast the most in-person votes in the first two days, but Waukesha County has bested Dane County the past two days in in person absentee and total absentee. Waukesha County will probably jump to #2 in terms of % of 2016 voted returned in a day or two. Dane County is still adding more votes via mail/dropbox absentees than any county but Milwaukee County and is at almost 55% of 2016 vote. Dane's return rate has been pretty consistently going up at 2-3% every day.

Ozaukee County and Washington County are also seeing double digit % increases due to the start of in-person absentee. Other Republican counties are coming in strong too including Calumet County, Sheboygan County, Walworth County, and Manitowoc County all have double digit % increases.

It's not all lost for Democrats, lots of their secondary counties (especially those with state universities) are seeing significant increases. This includes La Crosse County, Kenosha County, Rock County, Portage County, and Eau Claire County. This college factor is also evident in Grant and Pierce  counties. Who's not voting yet? Basically the Central and Western rural counties. The bottom five counties from worst to best are Clark, Buffalo, Trempealeau, Pepin, and Rusk.

I don't think anyone should really freak out about these results. Wisconsin is one of the best voter turnout states in the country, only behind the VBM states and Minnesota. Republicans and Republican areas were going to turnout.

All three of these counties will trend D, and Waukesha+Ozaukee will both swing D relative to 2016 and 2018, for some more context for everyone. The electorate in these counties turning out in large numbers is not the same as 2012 or previous elections when the GOP relied mostly on WOW counties.

[Storr]

Does someone have a list of the net number of ballots Democrats are gaining over Republicans for each day since early voting began? Including EV and mail.

You can find Texas per day here:
https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getElectionEVDates.do
Select "2020 NOVEMBER 3RD GENERAL ELECTION" and then on the left under Early "Voting Turnout by Date" you can select stats for whatever particular date you want. They always have the previous day's statistics on the website by 7:30am CT. The totals for the whole state are at the bottom of the page.

For some reason it doesn't show the number of mail votes returned on a particular date, but you can subtract the previous day's "Cumulative By Mail Voters" from the "Cumulative By Mail Voters" of the date you choose.

[wbrocks67]

4,256,102 votes cast in FL so far

45.3% DEM
34.4% REP

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1319288522709233670

[It’s so Joever]

The Democrats lead is down to 11% in Florida!!! The In person vote is cutting into democrats lead slowly but surely...Can Trump close the gap? Hopefully but we will see!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWY-2lM*RELmuWopShoDq9-h3Bl_Tw#

F**k.
And to think people still believe Florida will flip.

May I remind you that the REP turnout in 2016 was 7 points higher than DEM turnout in 2016! We actually discussed that here several days ago. Yes, REPs may and probably will eventually catch up to DEMs in FL, but it's still going to be a big improvement for DEMs compared to 2016.

There will likely be a huge surge of Trump voters on Election Day. We need a strong margin with the total EV+VBM to cancel that out.

[Bootes Void]

The Democrats lead is down to 11% in Florida!!! The In person vote is cutting into democrats lead slowly but surely...Can Trump close the gap? Hopefully but we will see!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWY-2lM*RELmuWopShoDq9-h3Bl_Tw#

F**k.
And to think people still believe Florida will flip.

May I remind you that the REP turnout in 2016 was 7 points higher than DEM turnout in 2016! We actually discussed that here several days ago. Yes, REPs may and probably will eventually catch up to DEMs in FL, but it's still going to be a big improvement for DEMs compared to 2016.

There will likely be a huge surge of Trump voters on Election Day. We need a strong margin with the total EV+VBM to cancel that out.

If a whole bunch of people voted before election day then there won't be a huge surge on election day. Also there will still be alot of Biden supporters voting on election, it's not all Trump supporters

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319299206826385409?s=21

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319299206826385409?s=21

How about VBM?

[wbrocks67]

Looks like PA there was a problem with some of the counties reporting. They seem to be coming in better/faster now, esp the suburbs.

Dems have now returned 51% of their ballots. Reps only 36%.

Dems @ 947K vs. Reps 263K.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1319303007381704704

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looks like PA there was a problem with some of the counties reporting. They seem to be coming in better/faster now, esp the suburbs.

Dems have now returned 51% of their ballots. Reps only 36%.

Dems @ 947K vs. Reps 263K.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1319303007381704704

Holy guacamole

[wbrocks67]

Looks like PA there was a problem with some of the counties reporting. They seem to be coming in better/faster now, esp the suburbs.

Dems have now returned 51% of their ballots. Reps only 36%.

Dems @ 947K vs. Reps 263K.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1319303007381704704

Holy guacamole

I'm wondering if it's possible that Reps requested their mail in ballots but they're just going to try and vote on election day instead? It's just very lopsided right now and Reps don't seem very compelled to return their ballots at all currently.

[Non Swing Voter]

Looks like PA there was a problem with some of the counties reporting. They seem to be coming in better/faster now, esp the suburbs.

Dems have now returned 51% of their ballots. Reps only 36%.

Dems @ 947K vs. Reps 263K.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1319303007381704704

YESSSS

This is the one I've been waiting for!

[MATTROSE94]

+5M votes in the morning update. We are now at 45M, a third of the total 2016 votes.

Texas turnout is at... 66%(!!) of 2016.

Honestly, with those number, Joe Biden wins Texas narrowly (probably by a 1960, 1968, or 1976-esque margin). There is no way that John Cornyn loses due to ticket-splitting on the Dallas, Houston, and Fort Worth suburbs. For MJ Hegar to win, Joe Biden would have to win Texas by about 20%, which a Democrat won’t get in Texas until at least 2028 based on current trends.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

The Republican comeback in Florida isn't materializing yet.  I'm skeptical that they're going to have a huge advantage on Election Day when the electorate is probably going to get progressively younger. 

[Dr. Arch]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

The Republican comeback in Florida isn't materializing yet.  I'm skeptical that they're going to have a huge advantage on Election Day when the electorate is probably going to get progressively younger. 

So, Democrats are now ahead in raw registration numbers in Florida by 513K. That's a big deal.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

The Republican comeback in Florida isn't materializing yet.  I'm skeptical that they're going to have a huge advantage on Election Day when the electorate is probably going to get progressively younger. 

So, Democrats are now ahead in raw registration numbers in Florida by 513K. That's a big deal.

I think they're ahead by 513k in total early vote (absentee + in person) but without counting yesterdays early vote.  So they're probably more like 470k ahead.  Still... I'll take it.  The GOP isn't cutting into it to the degree they claimed they would, which is making me think their whole amazing ground game is just another GOP lie.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1319095503771045889

[Non Swing Voter]

The North Carolina numbers are looking really good for Biden right now.

I think Durham was Hillary's best county in 2016.  Total vote there was 156k.  It's currently at 103k and keeps rising fast.

[tagimaucia]

. For MJ Hegar to win, Joe Biden would have to win Texas by about 20%, which a Democrat won’t get in Texas until at least 2028 based on current trends.

Cornyn is a def a decently strong favorite to win at this point, but lol what? No.

[Lief 🗽]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

[Dr. Arch]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

?