Florida 2022 Megathread

[GregTheGreat657]

Governor Ronald D. DeSantis (R) - 5,062,052 votes, 51.2%
Fmr. Governor Charles J. Crist Jr. (D) - 4,607,279, 46.6%

How did you make such a realistic map?

[Donerail]

Also — PPP is dropping a statewide poll today or tomorrow. Based on what I've heard about the figures, expect to see a lot of COPE from certain individuals on this web site.

Here's the first part of it:
https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1425858061672108032
(note that it's half landline/half text w/ a sample size of 274)

Given that this is being promoted by Fried's camp and Fried was telling the press yesterday that she had seen a poll showing DeSantis dropping significantly, have to imagine they also asked the head-to-head — not sure what they're waiting on.

[President Johnson]

Need more polls to see whether that number is valid. It's still pretty much a tie in that poll. I still believe Crist is the heavy favorite for the nomination and the stronger general election candidate until proven otherwise.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Howard Dean even said DeSantis will win Reelection and lose to Biden on GE

[Orwell]

I'm gonna stick with Crist here, I think he's a good statewide candidate in Florida. He got the shinks end of a stick back in 2014, but he's a legit candidate in 2022.

[Senator Spark]

Crist will be the nominee.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

FRIEDMENTUM

RESISTENCE TWITTER WILL GET THE LAST LAUGH

[brucejoel99]

So long as Taddeo doesn't jump into the race, that poll locks me in for Fried, given my previously explained rationale:

Say what you want about Fried's "resistance" style, but her winning in 2018 wasn't really all that much of a fluke, unless DeSantis' & Scott's wins were flukes too: she overperformed the top-of-the-ticket all across the state at the same time that Sean Shaw for AG & Jeremy Ring for CFO were badly underperforming & she really stood out in a way that you just don't see in a Democratic candidate for a down-ballot row office like Ag. Commish. She also had an organizing field staff independent of the chronically incompetent FDP - although they obviously worked together when necessary - & she's an SFL candidate in a time that Democratic statewide races have recently been falling short here. I think that she's ultimately good enough at message-discipline, coalition-building, & campaign resource-allocation that she manages to edge Crist out for the title of "stronger GE candidate," even though - of course - nobody's beating DeSantis next year in any event.

[pppolitics]

Florida, the ventilator state

[Progressive Pessimist]

The only reason I want Crist to be the nominee is so that he didn't abandon holding his congressional district for nothing. Of course, he will lose just like Fried would, but at least it wouldn't be completely for nothing...just mostly for nothing.

I personally don't care if Fried is no longer Agriculture Commissioner or not, she'd probably lose that election anyway, so she has much less to lose, but those things don't affect the Democrats' presence in the federal government.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Neither one are gonna win with Biden at 49% Approvals just like Biden didn't win FL in 2020 with 50% Approvals

[Donerail]

I personally don't care if Fried is no longer Agriculture Commissioner or not, she'd probably lose that election anyway, so she has much less to lose, but those things don't affect the Democrats' presence in the federal government.

If you don't care about any of this why do you post in this thread?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

His predicting is on par with Snowlabrador, he believes WI is Lean R

[Progressive Pessimist]

I personally don't care if Fried is no longer Agriculture Commissioner or not, she'd probably lose that election anyway, so she has much less to lose, but those things don't affect the Democrats' presence in the federal government.

If you don't care about any of this why do you post in this thread?

Because when the result comes in being exactly what I expect, it will just be more vindication for me and my infamous "safe R Florida" takes.

[Xing]

I don’t think Fried would win, but I do think Crist is overrated and pretty much an empty opportunist.

[Donerail]

In local news: Duval is the eighth school district to join the rebel alliance, along with Sarasota, Leon, Alachua, Hillsborough, Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade. The eight counties represent 44% of all public school students in Florida. Orange County Public Schools is expected to approve on a mask mandate at the school board meeting today; Pinellas also meets today but the outcome seems less certain. Eyes on Osceola/Seminole/St. Lucie, which all have a sort of mandate, but allow parents to opt-out without a doctor’s note. DeSantis has pledged to #defund schools that require a medical opt-out, which, once Orange moves today, will mean defunding the public schools attended by a majority of Florida's children.

Meanwhile, the Commonwealth of the Bahamas will require all visiting cruise ship passengers to present proof of vaccination. The requirement extends to private islands owned by cruise lines like Disney, Norwegian and Royal Caribbean. As a result of its proximity to Florida, a majority of cruises stop in the Bahamas. DeSantis has attempted to forbid cruise lines from requiring vaccinations, but following the Bahamas move and a loss in federal court, a majority of cruise lines are now requiring vaccination. (Including Disney, the people who really run this state.) L after L for Ronnie this week.

[Donerail]

St. Pete mayoral election is today! Former County Commissioner Ken Welch (D), who would be the city’s first black mayor, almost certainly has first place locked up. Welch is the favorite of the local Dem establishment, with endorsements from outgoing Mayor Rick Kriseman and former Gov. Charlie Crist (as well as most of the city council), and (if you like) you could view his likely victory as an affirmation of Kriseman’s tenure in office. It’s unlikely he exceeds the 50% necessary to avoid a November runoff, but not impossible.

The race for second is a bit more competitive, but councilman Robert Blackmon (R) looks like a strong favorite ahead of Councilwoman Darden Rice (D). Both have faced their own scandals during the campaign — Rice a mailer, widely seen as dishonest, that attempted to tie Welch to Donald Trump by way of campaign contributions and endorsements from figures like Sheriff Bob Gualtieri (R), Blackmon for evicting tenants from properties he owns in south St. Pete. Rice actually has the fundraising edge, but Blackmon probably has an advantage because of his ability to consolidate Republican voters. Most polls have both candidates trailing Welch by double digits in the runoff.

Turnout has been light so far. The final poll, from St. Pete Polls, has it Welch 37%, Blackmon 27%, Rice 17%. State Rep. Wengay Newton (D), a conservative Democrat who represents the city’s south side in the legislature, trails with 6%; restauranteur Pete Boland (R) takes 5%.

[Heebie Jeebie]

u love too see it

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1429930483199225860

[President Johnson]

u love too see it

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1429930483199225860

Lmao... no.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news GOV FRIED

We don't know the outcomes of Elections we can predict them but D's can win Elections as 2008/12 showed we can win FL, OH, IA and NC

[Girlytree]

Rs won Florida big in 2018 when Hillary was loser. Biden approval down plus Rubio against AA Demings means Ds are lost.

Kelly, WARNOCK, Hassan, and CCM will decide inevitable fate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs won Florida big in 2018 when Hillary was loser. Biden approval down plus Rubio against AA Demings means Ds are lost.

Kelly, WARNOCK, Hassan, and CCM will decide inevitable fate.

Like Biden Approvals are gonna stay like that forever, some show him at 54%


Biden and Obama won FL, OH, NC, IN and IA I'm 2008/12 and the PVI was only 6 sux everything isn't about 2018

[Girlytree]

Rs won Florida big in 2018 when Hillary was loser. Biden approval down plus Rubio against AA Demings means Ds are lost.

Kelly, WARNOCK, Hassan, and CCM will decide inevitable fate.

Like Biden Approvals are gonna stay like that forever, some show him at 54%

Like Biden Approvals are gonna fall, some show him at 45%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama was at 45 due to Unpopularity of Obamacare and Trump was going thru impeachment, there isn't any issue that will keep Biden polls at 45 and Lol Afghanistan isn't gonna do it, we haven't had an international Terrorist attack since the deaths of Arafat, Saddam, and Bin Laden

[Progressive Pessimist]

u love too see it

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1429930483199225860

I would love to see it on election day. But an undeniably flawed poll does nothing for me.