Several early indicators to look for:
- Fayette County, KY, home of Lexington, a mid-sized city with a good mix of urban and suburban areas. If Biden is underperforming here, that could be a sign that he is losing ground in both urban and suburban areas
- Georgia - due to recent law changes, GA very likely will count their ballots very quickly this year and if polls are correct and remain steady until November, GA could be called for Trump pretty early (before 10 o'clock). We can look at margins in Fulton (Atlanta) and it's surrounding suburbs and see 1) is turnout down in Atlanta (indicating underperformance with black voters) and 2) is he underperforming his 2020 margins in Metro Atlanta (that doesn't bode well for him in other college-educated suburbs like in Philly)
- Does New Jersey get called right at poll closings? If not, that would mean exit polls are showing a much closer race in the Garden State than we've seen in years. Nobody seriously thinks NJ is going to flip this year, but a significantly closer than usual race could spell doom in neighboring PA.
Biden isn't going to pull the same margins he did in Fayette in 2020 simply because there will be lower turnout given how disliked both Candidates are. It will be more like the Clinton 2016 mergin in Fayette.
