UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I wonder what the demographics for the secular indians are, generarly in my personal experience and data seems to suggest that Muslim-indians growing up in the UK tend to be more religious than those from the same background who didn't leave to the UK.

Which community is the increasing number of irrelgious indians coming from ?

[Blair]

A broken record but the hysteria over council by elections is getting to the stage where I’d ban them from Twitter.

It’s insane. People are reading more into them than a sane person would gleam from a parliamentary one!

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

A broken record but the hysteria over council by elections is getting to the stage where I’d ban them from Twitter.

It’s insane. People are reading more into them than a sane person would gleam from a parliamentary one!

Is this the reaction to green council gain ? Can someone explain why the greens are sometimes randomly strong in conservative rural areas ?

[EastAnglianLefty]

A broken record but the hysteria over council by elections is getting to the stage where I’d ban them from Twitter.

It’s insane. People are reading more into them than a sane person would gleam from a parliamentary one!

Is this the reaction to green council gain ? Can someone explain why the greens are sometimes randomly strong in conservative rural areas ?

Because vague environmentalism is popular just about everywhere, especially when it's harnessed to NIMBYism; because the Green vibe is much more acceptable to middle-class shire Tories than the Labour vibe is; and because the Greens have got quite good at adopting LD by-election techniques.

Although the gain last night wasn't in a rural area and a slightly (though not entirely) different set of reasons will have existed there.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

A broken record but the hysteria over council by elections is getting to the stage where I’d ban them from Twitter.

It’s insane. People are reading more into them than a sane person would gleam from a parliamentary one!

Is this the reaction to green council gain ? Can someone explain why the greens are sometimes randomly strong in conservative rural areas ?

Because vague environmentalism is popular just about everywhere, especially when it's harnessed to NIMBYism; because the Green vibe is much more acceptable to middle-class shire Tories than the Labour vibe is; and because the Greens have got quite good at adopting LD by-election techniques.

Although the gain last night wasn't in a rural area and a slightly (though not entirely) different set of reasons will have existed there.

Don't the greens have like a strong reputation for kooks and cranks ?

[YL]

A broken record but the hysteria over council by elections is getting to the stage where I’d ban them from Twitter.

It’s insane. People are reading more into them than a sane person would gleam from a parliamentary one!

Most of those takes are either bad faith cherry picking or so stupid that they might as well be.

"Labour lost to the Greens in Whitstable!  STARMER OUT NOW!"
"Labour nearly won a seat in rural Devon!  1997 LANDSLIDE INCOMING!"

[Blair]

A broken record but the hysteria over council by elections is getting to the stage where I’d ban them from Twitter.

It’s insane. People are reading more into them than a sane person would gleam from a parliamentary one!

Is this the reaction to green council gain ? Can someone explain why the greens are sometimes randomly strong in conservative rural areas ?

No it’s more the wider pattern and the expectation that you can take six or seven council by-election every week across the whole of the country and then use them to reverse engineer the national picture - which then suits your own political opinion.

You can just about use a council by-election to understand the dynamics in the council (if you understand the ward and the local issues) but even this is difficult especially when only 1000 or so people are voting- in these ridiculously low turn outs something as simple as a dropped curb or a CPZ could swing enough votes to change the result.

But MPs are now tweeting on this so what can we do!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's also much easier for an intense campaign to swing a local by-election than literally any other form of election.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

A broken record but the hysteria over council by elections is getting to the stage where I’d ban them from Twitter.

It’s insane. People are reading more into them than a sane person would gleam from a parliamentary one!

Got to talk about something.

[CumbrianLefty]

The ultimate in buffoonery was the #FBPEer who decided it was Labour's fault for "handing the Tories victory" in the W Devon byelection - even though they came within a single vote of winning it.

[Blair]

The ultimate in buffoonery was the #FBPEer who decided it was Labour's fault for "handing the Tories victory" in the W Devon byelection - even though they came within a single vote of winning it.

Yeah claiming they should have stood down for the Lib Dems, as they came third last time.

It's also frankly even more stupid to argue it should extend to council election- there are councils where I would not vote for the Liberal democrats out of principle, and equally a whole swath where people would not vote Labour.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The ultimate in buffoonery was the #FBPEer who decided it was Labour's fault for "handing the Tories victory" in the W Devon byelection - even though they came within a single vote of winning it.

Yeah claiming they should have stood down for the Lib Dems, as they came third last time.

It's also frankly even more stupid to argue it should extend to council election- there are councils where I would not vote for the Liberal democrats out of principle, and equally a whole swath where people would not vote Labour.

Additionally, Council by-elections literally do not matter to any issue any hypothetical progressive alliance would agree given how weird many council coalitions can be.

[Хahar 🤔]

Religious Breakdown interesting, would have expected Sikhs to lean conservative. But only Hindus and Christians.

For Sikhs to vote Conservative would have surprised me. I can't think of any foreign country where they vote regularly for a right-wing party; Sikhs are as natural a demographic for the left as any ethnoreligious group I can think of.

[MaxQue]

The ultimate in buffoonery was the #FBPEer who decided it was Labour's fault for "handing the Tories victory" in the W Devon byelection - even though they came within a single vote of winning it.

Yeah claiming they should have stood down for the Lib Dems, as they came third last time.

It's also frankly even more stupid to argue it should extend to council election- there are councils where I would not vote for the Liberal democrats out of principle, and equally a whole swath where people would not vote Labour.

Additionally, Council by-elections literally do not matter to any issue any hypothetical progressive alliance would agree given how weird many council coalitions can be.

Through, I'm pretty sure Conservative-Labour coalitions are banned by the Labour Party (see Aberdeen).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Religious Breakdown interesting, would have expected Sikhs to lean conservative. But only Hindus and Christians.

For Sikhs to vote Conservative would have surprised me. I can't think of any foreign country where they vote regularly for a right-wing party; Sikhs are as natural a demographic for the left as any ethnoreligious group I can think of.

They vote PAP in Singapore.(though tbf that applies to pretty much every other demographic).

[Blair]

Found this interesting, some in depth research into the political leanings of British Indians:
https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/11/18/britain-s-new-swing-voters-survey-of-british-indian-attitudes-pub-85784




Religious Breakdown interesting, would have expected Sikhs to lean conservative. But only Hindus and Christians.



Note: Colours swapped



UK-India relations not important for voting intentions, Modi not liked even among Hindus. Even among Conservative-leaning, it is mainly economic interest driving political leanings. So overall, Indians are actually quite similar to the white majority.

There is, always, a big problem with people in Labour confusing the political views and issues that activists within communities hold & the population at large.

For example; Labour promised a judicial review into the actions of the Thatcher Government at the Blue Star massacre in the 1980s & moved mountains to get the first turban wearing Sikh elected in 2017 (Tan Dhesi) Both these actions were popular but did they make a huge difference outside of a small group?*

On the other hand the problem with British-Indian Hindus have been relatively long-running. A lot of people put it down to Modi & the efforts of BJP adjacent parts to whip up anger- and this certainly helped but I've been hearing it as an issue since at least 2010. For some it is a case of the fact that these are voters who own their own home, are relatively affluent and are less likely to live in urban areas- it was quite common for homes owned in London in the 60s & 70s by British asians to now be rented out (sometimes to other members of the diaspora but not always) 


*Although it might be a bad example as British Sikhs are a relatively narrow group- both in numbers and largely geography. There's of course political splits within it & so but its a lot more monolithic than say the rather catch all 'British Indian' or 'British Pakistani' description- both of which are virtually useless due to their broadness.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well of course there has always been a section of Indian voters who prefer the Tories - they did well amongst the "Ugandan Asians" from the start for example, partly out of gratitude given it was Heath who let them in (I think Priti Patel is from this group)

There have been some atttempts by the right to attract Sikh voters with anti-Muslim tropes, though with fairly limited success thus far.

[Continential]

It would be interesting if there was polling on how BJP supporting British Indians vote/Congress supporting British Indians vote.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Well of course there has always been a section of Indian voters who prefer the Tories - they did well amongst the "Ugandan Asians" from the start for example, partly out of gratitude given it was Heath who let them in (I think Priti Patel is from this group)

There have been some atttempts by the right to attract Sikh voters with anti-Muslim tropes, though with fairly limited success thus far.

My dad's landlord when he studied in cardiff was an Indian Uganda, they're were an extremely conservative Tory who had similar politics to his roommate, a white Rhodesian who dreamed of reconquering Zimbabwe.

[Suburbia]

Are there any right wing Kyle Rittenhouses in Britain, other than Tommy Robinson probably?

[EastAnglianLefty]

On the other hand the problem with British-Indian Hindus have been relatively long-running. A lot of people put it down to Modi & the efforts of BJP adjacent parts to whip up anger- and this certainly helped but I've been hearing it as an issue since at least 2010. For some it is a case of the fact that these are voters who own their own home, are relatively affluent and are less likely to live in urban areas- it was quite common for homes owned in London in the 60s & 70s by British asians to now be rented out (sometimes to other members of the diaspora but not always)  

And you can see this in the differing electoral behaviours of Hindu voters in NW London and in Leicester. The former group are politically marginal and predominantly middle-class; the latter group were until 2019 (when there were other factors at play) fairly reliably Labour and predominantly working-class.

A lot of analyses, particularly the more hand-wringing ones, ignore the fact that ethnic minority voters have economic interests in the same way as everybody else does.

[Blair]

A rather bizarre speech this morning from bojo at the CBI where he among other things did an impersonation of a combustion engine, lost his place in his speech and then talked about Peppa Pig world.

The problem is much like Brown in 2009 and to a degree Keir earlier this year once things start going wrong everyone is looking for more evidence to reaffirm it…

[CumbrianLefty]

On the other hand the problem with British-Indian Hindus have been relatively long-running. A lot of people put it down to Modi & the efforts of BJP adjacent parts to whip up anger- and this certainly helped but I've been hearing it as an issue since at least 2010. For some it is a case of the fact that these are voters who own their own home, are relatively affluent and are less likely to live in urban areas- it was quite common for homes owned in London in the 60s & 70s by British asians to now be rented out (sometimes to other members of the diaspora but not always)  

And you can see this in the differing electoral behaviours of Hindu voters in NW London and in Leicester. The former group are politically marginal and predominantly middle-class; the latter group were until 2019 (when there were other factors at play) fairly reliably Labour and predominantly working-class.

A lot of analyses, particularly the more hand-wringing ones, ignore the fact that ethnic minority voters have economic interests in the same way as everybody else does.

They do indeed, but its still fair to say non-white voters have traditionally been less likely to vote Tory than white ones *even with other things being equal*. That may be changing a bit, but equally some have a vested interest in overstating this.

[TheTide]

A rather bizarre speech this morning from bojo at the CBI where he among other things did an impersonation of a combustion engine, lost his place in his speech and then talked about Peppa Pig world.

The problem is much like Brown in 2009 and to a degree Keir earlier this year once things start going wrong everyone is looking for more evidence to reaffirm it…

The speech has been called 'shambolic'. From whom you may ask? Not from Labour, not from Johnson's enemies in the Tory Party, but from a Number Ten source.

[YL]

It really is embarrassing having that man as PM.