Canada Federal Representation 2024

[lilTommy]

Krago, what are your thoughts on the impact of the changes to University-Rosedale and Spadina-Fort York (now Toronto-Waterfront)?

I think the Commission did a fine job in downtown Toronto.  Putting Chinatown back together in the same riding, and using the Gardiner instead of The Esplanade makes sense.

I would fix Castle Frank Cres, and it looks like the Atlantic Ave extension cuts through 47 Sudbury Ave and 1090 King St W.



I would also drop the name 'Spadina' since it doesn't include either the Spadina Museum, Spadina Road, Spadina Station, Spadina Cres, or much of Spadina Ave.  'Muddy York', anyone?   

Ya that's a tough area, it would make more sense to tack west on Sudbury to Abell then south to the tracks? would be a funny little wing but cleaner. But it looks like there is an alley just west of 47 Sudbury so that should be where that border goes. A straight line looks good on paper, but in that area it just might not work?

Yes, the riding name should include "Fort York" in the name... Toronto Fort York, or Fort York-Harbourfront.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why was Spadina kept in the riding name last time anyway? They could've kept Trinity instead, as it still contained Trinity-Bellwoods Park.

[lilTommy]

Why was Spadina kept in the riding name last time anyway? They could've kept Trinity instead, as it still contained Trinity-Bellwoods Park.

I KNOW! Trinity-Fort York makes/made more sense; "Spadina" always should have been kept in the northern portion, so Spadina-Rosedale to me would have been better then University-Rosedale.

[Krago]

One thing I’ve learned in all my years of dealing with redistribution: people care far more about riding names than riding boundaries.

[Hatman 🍁]

One thing I’ve learned in all my years of dealing with redistribution: people care far more about riding names than riding boundaries.

The toponymy is half the fun!

[DL]

Why don't they rename University-Rosedale "Toronto-Intelligentsia" and then name the Spadina-Waterfront seat "Toronto-Condominium"

[Krago]

In honour of Hatman, here are my suggested name changes:

Commission Name	Better Name
Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke	Renfrew—South Algonquin
Brampton—Chinguacousy Park	Brampton—Bramalea
Brampton North—Caledon	Brampton North—Mayfield West
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	Bruce—Grey
Elgin—St. Thomas—London South	Elgin—Lambeth
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands— Rideau Lakes	Leeds—Grenville
Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	Nickel Belt—Manitoulin
Milton East—Halton Hills South	Milton East—Georgetown
Mississauga—Lakeshore	Mississauga—Port Credit
Niagara North	Niagara Falls or Niagara East
Niagara South	Niagara Centre
Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester	Ottawa—Vanier
Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong	Lambton
Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East	Scarborough—Don Valley East
Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park	Scarborough—Rouge Park
Scarborough—Woburn	Scarborough Centre
Spadina—Harbourfront	Fort York
Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	Parkdale—High Park
Wellington—Halton Hills North	Wellington—Guelph—Acton
York Centre	Downsview
York South—Weston—Etobicoke	Weston—Humber Heights

[emmettmark]

In honour of Hatman, here are my suggested name changes:

Commission Name	Better Name
Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke	Renfrew—South Algonquin
Brampton—Chinguacousy Park	Brampton—Bramalea
Brampton North—Caledon	Brampton North—Mayfield West
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	Bruce—Grey
Elgin—St. Thomas—London South	Elgin—Lambeth
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands— Rideau Lakes	Leeds—Grenville
Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	Nickel Belt—Manitoulin
Milton East—Halton Hills South	Milton East—Georgetown
Mississauga—Lakeshore	Mississauga—Port Credit
Niagara North	Niagara Falls or Niagara East
Niagara South	Niagara Centre
Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester	Ottawa—Vanier
Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong	Lambton
Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East	Scarborough—Don Valley East
Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park	Scarborough—Rouge Park
Scarborough—Woburn	Scarborough Centre
Spadina—Harbourfront	Fort York
Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	Parkdale—High Park
Wellington—Halton Hills North	Wellington—Guelph—Acton
York Centre	Downsview
York South—Weston—Etobicoke	Weston—Humber Heights

Oooh this is what I'd do for BC riding name changes:

Commission Name	Better Name
Abbotsford—South Langley	Abbotsford—Langley South
Capilano—North Vancouver	North Vancouver—West Vancouver
Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies	Kootenay
Courtenay—Alberni	Mid Island
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	Cowichan—Langford
Fleetwood—Port Kells	Surrey—Fleetwood
Howe Sound—West Vancouver	West Vancouver—Howe Sound
Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies	Kamloops—Columbia—Shuswap
Langley Township	Langley—Fraser Heights
Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford	Abbotsford—Mission
Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna	Okanagan—Kelowna South
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge	Maple Ridge—Pitt Meadows
Port Moody—Coquitlam	Coquitlam—Port Moody
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies	Prince George—Peace River
Richmond Centre—Marpole	Richmond West—Marpole
Skeena—Bulkley Valley	British Columbia Northwest
Vancouver Arbutus	Vancouver Southwest
Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby	Vancouver South—Burnaby
Vernon—Monashee	North Okanagan

Thoughts?

[adma]

York Centre

Downsview

Or maybe Downsview-Wilson Heights (or the other way around)?  There's definitely a "divide" btw/E and W of the Dufferin/Allen corridor to be acknowledged...

[mileslunn]

Results in terms of numbers are

157 Liberals
126 Conservatives
34  BQ
24  NDP
2    Greens

Atlantic Canada same results

Quebec

BQ 34
Liberals 33
Conservatives 10
NDP 1

Ontario

Liberals 77
Conservatives 40
NDP 4
Greens 1

Manitoba no change

Saskatchewan

Conservatives 13
Liberals          1

Alberta

Conservatives 34
NDP 2
Liberals 1

British Columbia

Liberals 15
Conservatives 14
NDP 13
Greens 1

[Hatman 🍁]

In honour of Hatman, here are my suggested name changes:

Commission Name	Better Name
Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke	Renfrew—South Algonquin
Brampton—Chinguacousy Park	Brampton—Bramalea
Brampton North—Caledon	Brampton North—Mayfield West
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	Bruce—Grey
Elgin—St. Thomas—London South	Elgin—Lambeth
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands— Rideau Lakes	Leeds—Grenville
Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	Nickel Belt—Manitoulin
Milton East—Halton Hills South	Milton East—Georgetown
Mississauga—Lakeshore	Mississauga—Port Credit
Niagara North	Niagara Falls or Niagara East
Niagara South	Niagara Centre
Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester	Ottawa—Vanier
Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong	Lambton
Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East	Scarborough—Don Valley East
Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park	Scarborough—Rouge Park
Scarborough—Woburn	Scarborough Centre
Spadina—Harbourfront	Fort York
Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	Parkdale—High Park
Wellington—Halton Hills North	Wellington—Guelph—Acton
York Centre	Downsview
York South—Weston—Etobicoke	Weston—Humber Heights

Most of these are better, or at least just as good.

I think I would re-name Niagara South to Welland—Erie. Not sure Guelph needs to be in the Wellington—Acton name, since Guelph is geographically part of Wellington County. Also, why not York—Humber or York South—Humber? The former borough of York makes up a substantial part of that riding and should be included.

In honour of Hatman, here are my suggested name changes:

Commission Name	Better Name
Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke	Renfrew—South Algonquin
Brampton—Chinguacousy Park	Brampton—Bramalea
Brampton North—Caledon	Brampton North—Mayfield West
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	Bruce—Grey
Elgin—St. Thomas—London South	Elgin—Lambeth
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands— Rideau Lakes	Leeds—Grenville
Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	Nickel Belt—Manitoulin
Milton East—Halton Hills South	Milton East—Georgetown
Mississauga—Lakeshore	Mississauga—Port Credit
Niagara North	Niagara Falls or Niagara East
Niagara South	Niagara Centre
Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester	Ottawa—Vanier
Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong	Lambton
Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East	Scarborough—Don Valley East
Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park	Scarborough—Rouge Park
Scarborough—Woburn	Scarborough Centre
Spadina—Harbourfront	Fort York
Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	Parkdale—High Park
Wellington—Halton Hills North	Wellington—Guelph—Acton
York Centre	Downsview
York South—Weston—Etobicoke	Weston—Humber Heights

Oooh this is what I'd do for BC riding name changes:

Commission Name	Better Name
Abbotsford—South Langley	Abbotsford—Langley South
Capilano—North Vancouver	North Vancouver—West Vancouver
Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies	Kootenay
Courtenay—Alberni	Mid Island
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	Cowichan—Langford
Fleetwood—Port Kells	Surrey—Fleetwood
Howe Sound—West Vancouver	West Vancouver—Howe Sound
Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies	Kamloops—Columbia—Shuswap
Langley Township	Langley—Fraser Heights
Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford	Abbotsford—Mission
Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna	Okanagan—Kelowna South
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge	Maple Ridge—Pitt Meadows
Port Moody—Coquitlam	Coquitlam—Port Moody
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies	Prince George—Peace River
Richmond Centre—Marpole	Richmond West—Marpole
Skeena—Bulkley Valley	British Columbia Northwest
Vancouver Arbutus	Vancouver Southwest
Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby	Vancouver South—Burnaby
Vernon—Monashee	North Okanagan

Thoughts?

Can't say I like many of them. "British Columbia Northwest" is particularly egregious.

[DL]

A few news items about the redistribution have included quotes from NDP MP Daniel Blaikie about the changes to his Winnipeg seat of Elmwood-Transcona - but the story seems very exaggerated. Yes the riding adds a bunch of territory - but hardly anyone lives there! I think I read that the rural Conservative voting area that is now added to his riding has a grand total of about 400 voters! Obviously that could make a difference in a super close race - and Blaikie only won by 56 votes when first elected in 2015 - but now its hard to imagine that boundary change making any real difference when about 95% of the vote is still very much urban Winnipeg where he has been winning by bigger and bigger margins each election.

[Krago]

“Dissecting Redistribution”

https://cspg-gcep.ca/pdf/seminar_2023-04-flyer.pdf

[Krago]

For all my pals enjoying life along the Welland Canal, here you are:

[Krago]

Northern Ontario MPs want to keep the ten federal ridings in their part of the province. That would require squeezing another seat out of Toronto and Markham.

Here’s my plan:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=18OrFn4Zs3JXgs9Yj-0LXuPgCN8vB94E&usp=sharing

[Hatman 🍁]

Northern Ontario MPs want to keep the ten federal ridings in their part of the province. That would require squeezing another seat out of Toronto and Markham.

Here’s my plan:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=18OrFn4Zs3JXgs9Yj-0LXuPgCN8vB94E&usp=sharing

That will fly over well.

[toaster]

Northern Ontario MPs want to keep the ten federal ridings in their part of the province. That would require squeezing another seat out of Toronto and Markham.

Here’s my plan:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=18OrFn4Zs3JXgs9Yj-0LXuPgCN8vB94E&usp=sharing

Really what Angus, Hughes and the other North Eastern MPs should be advocating is the removal of one of the Northwestern ridings proposed and have it moved to the North East.  Again, Thunder Bay (an urban city of over 100K+) is not what was meant for exceptional circumstance.

Northeastern Ontario: 509,771 , Report Proposal = 5 Ridings = 101,954 average / riding
/ 6 ridings = 84 961/ riding (still more people per riding than the North West).

Northwestern Ontario: 232 299, Report proposes = 3 Ridings = 77 433 avg/riding


So even if Northeastern gained another riding, the ridings in the North West still have fewer people.  

If the argument is that it is not fair to the North that they happen to be in a province with such high growth elsewhere, then that needs to be applied across the North.  I've read the report, and to say Thunder Bay is more deserving of exceptional circumstance than Attawapiskat, Peawanuck, or the rest of First Nations communities in the North East is ludicrous. They talk about distance, but the distance from Peawanuck to Timmins is much further than anything in the North West.

[Krago]

Not that anyone cares (or ever did), I have made a final update to my proposed map of Canada to show areas that MPs or the PROC Committee should reconsider.

https://bit.ly/Canada343

In Nova Scotia:
- Peggy's Cove is back with South Shore
- Bedford is back with Halifax West
- Hammonds Plains is reunited in the Sackville riding
- some areas that should be with Preston are put in the Sackville riding
- all the Mi'kmaq communities in Cape Breton (Unama'ki) are placed in one seat

In Ontario:
- Mer Bleue is added to Carleton, so that Prescott--Russell doesn't reach too far into Ottawa
- Stittsville is no longer splitsville
- Toronto and Markham would go from 27 to 26 seats to accommodate Northern Ontario keeping ten ridings - no riding would cross the Humber River, Victoria Park Ave, or Hwy 401 (east of Humber River)
- all of Cooksville would stay in Mississauga East, while the large condos on the east side of Hurontario would remain in Mississauga Centre
- Northwestern Ontario would stay as proposed by the Commission, while Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing would reappear in northeastern Ontario

In B.C.:
- Delta would not cross the western border of Surrey
- no seat would cross the Surrey/Langley border

[Krago]

The PROC Committee was supposed to hear objections from Alberta and Quebec MPs yesterday about the electoral boundaries reports.  Unfortunately, the session was hijacked by CCP fifth columnists, so the real work will be put off until later.

[Hatman 🍁]

I can see why they wanted the "Mer Bleue" area in Prescott-Russell-Cumberland, as that area has a large Francophone population, and is rather rural, so belongs in the riding for COI reasons.  It would actually be more preferable to move the boundary westward to include some of the more French communities in Carleton like Piperville.

[Krago]

I can see why they wanted the "Mer Bleue" area in Prescott-Russell-Cumberland, as that area has a large Francophone population, and is rather rural, so belongs in the riding for COI reasons.  It would actually be more preferable to move the boundary westward to include some of the more French communities in Carleton like Piperville.

My back-of-the-envelope calculation shows a mother tongue breakdown of 62% English and 28% French in the new area of Prescott-Russell-Cumberland.  The Piperville area is about the same.

[emmettmark]

I have prepared an alternative map for B.C. that has:
- one riding entirely within the City of Delta
- four ridings entirely within the City of Surrey
- one riding that is shared between the City of Surrey and the City of White Rock
- one riding that is shared between the City of Langley and Langley Township
- one riding that is shared between Langley Township and the City of Abbotsford

This alternative provides a better option for maintaining municipal boundaries in the area while respecting communities of interest and keeping all riding populations within 5% of the provincial quotient.

You can find my alternative map here:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1150adWRwtUO76J5OD4KvAMCwM9nVorA&usp=sharing

This looks great! The only thing I'd change, is to re-align the Cloverdale-East Newton and Fleetwood-Port Kells ridings. In my view, Cloverdale shares a greater (suburban) community of interest with parts of Guildford and Fraser Heights, as opposed to East Newton. I'd also suggest that East Newton shares a better community of (urban) interest with Fleetwood. It might look a bit wonky, but is a better streamlining of COIs.

Taken from Surrey's land use and community planning documents (Parks, Recreation & Culture 10-Year Strategic Plan - 2017):



Source:
https://www.surrey.ca/renovating-building-development/land-planning-development/land-use-planning
https://www.surrey.ca/sites/default/files/media/documents/PRC%20Facility%20and%20Amenity%20Inventory.pdf

[Krago]

Do you like this map better?

[Krago]

You can really seem the impact of Jagmeet Singh as NDP leader.

Surrey 2011 Federal


Surrey 2015 Federal


Surrey 2019 Federal


Surrey 2021 Federal

[emmettmark]

Do you like this map better?

It's certainly improved! I'd go further and move more of the Guildford-area around Tynehead Park out of the Fleetwood riding into the Cloverdale riding, and move those parts of East Newton in the Cloverdale riding into the Fleetwood riding. Both are circled:



Cloverdale-Guildford and Fleetwood-East Newton?