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Hamilton
Continuing along the former state's Southern border, we find the state centered on the Cincinnati and Dayton urban areas. Naming this state after the Federalist titan of early post-independence politics made sense, as it's the name of its most populous county as well as seeming to fit the vibe quite well. Hamilton is the epitome of Midwestern conservatism, boasting an unbroken Republican voting streak since 1968 and a Republican PVI for all the period I have data for (and above R+10 since 1984). As such, there's not very much to say about HM's politics. Even the trends that swept over the rest of the state so dramatically seem to have had very little effect on it: it trended to the right by a mere two points in 2016 and then retraced about a third of that shift in 2020. Cincinnati itself has been trending increasingly Democratic, but Dayton's evolution has been more ambiguous, and the exurban counties around those urban center have if gotten markedly more Republican. Thus, the end result remains a reliable (though not overwhelming) Republican stronghold.
Capital: Dayton seems right.
House Seats (1963): 10
House Seats (2013): 7
VAP Demographics (2010): 82% White, 13% Black
PVI 2008: R+17
PVI 2012: R+15
PVI 2016: R+17
PVI 2020: R+17
Congressional Representation: Sherrod Brown lost HM by 7 points in his 2006 landslide, so it's pretty clear Democrats don't have a shot in a Senate election around here. As for the House, one urban Cincinnati district is inevitable (it might have to be a Black opportunity district as well given VRA constraints). A fair map would probably have another Dem-leaning seat in Hamilton County, and perhaps another one around Dayton, but a GOP gerrymander could probably ensure 6 solidly Republican seats.
Local Government: Again, I don't see much of an opening for a Democrat to win a gubernatorial race here. State legislature wise, Dems seem to be holding about 30% of the seats in the State House seats in the area, so Republicans might have slight veto-proof supermajorities (not that it would matter).
Columbia
This state doesn't have an obvious geographic feature to name it from, so I figured it would be fun to pick the name Columbia, both in reference to its largest city but also as a tribute to the name's cultural significance in early American history. Geographically, this state is a bit of an odd beast, as due to population balance concerns it's left encompassing very disparate areas. To the South, you have the large and growing Columbus metro area, which has trended significantly to the left in recent decades. To the North, you have the old working-class stronghold of Toledo, still overwhelmingly Democratic but undergoing trends comparable to those in nearby Erie. Finally, to the East, we have some of the most ancestrally Republican turf in all the Midwest. Adding it all up, the rural and suburban Republican areas are usually enough to overwhelm Columbus and Toledo, resulting in a state that can usually be relied to vote Republican. Until 2008, the only Democrat who won it was LBJ in 1964. However, trends in the 90s and 00s started to favor Democrats, allowing Clinton to come within a point of Dole there in 1996, and finally allowing Obama to carry the state by 2 points in 2008, and even more impressively to prevail again in the hard-fought 2012 election. Let's look at how that played out:
Like with OH last time, we have a pretty obvious case of a state being a lot closer than land area would suggest - this time allowing Obama to actually prevail on the back of just 5 countries: of course the two key ones were Franklin (Columbus) and Lucas (Toledo), which he won 60% and 65% of the vote in respectively and racked up a 200k vote lead (he won the state by 20K). However, it's also notable that he managed to win a few more counties on the Erie shore as well, and generally kept Romney under 60% in most of the Republican parts of the state (although she still cleared up in Columbus' Northern suburbs as well as in the Eastern part of the state). As this might well have been one of the swing states that decided the election, it would have seen intense campaigning on both sides, and Obama's 1.2-point victory would have sealed the fate of the election.
So, in the mid 2010s, it seemed CL was destined to become a prime swing state. Then, 2016 happened, undoing a decade's worth of trends. Democrats' gains around Columbus were easily swamped by the rest of the state's strong Republican swing, and 2020 only continued on the same trajectory. Until and unless the Columbus area starts voting more like the Chicago one, or trends in the Northern part of the state can be at least partially reversed, Democrats will have a hard time winning statewide.
Capital: Columbus, duh.
House Seats (1963): 11
House Seats (2013): 9
VAP Demographics (2010): 83% White, 10% Black
PVI 2008: R+5
PVI 2012: R+3
PVI 2016: R+10
PVI 2020: R+11
Congressional Representation: CL's Senate elections last took place in 2018 and 2022. Sherrod Brown actually won by 8 points there in 2018, higher than his statewide margin. And given that he won in all three of his runs, it's quite possible to see a Democrat having won the state in a very Dem year like 2006 or 2012, thus granting them the incumbency advantage. I think that's enough grounds to give one of the two Senate seat to the Dems, although they'll have to fight hard to keep it this year. The other is probably safely in GOP hands for now. As for the House, I think Republicans would realistically have to concede 3 seats to Democrats (two in Columbus and one in Toledo) but they'll make sure the remaining 6 are as Safe R as they possibly can.
Local Government: Democrats haven't had much luck with gubernatorial elections here. Cordray lost by 3 points and I doubt a different Democrat would have prevailed even in 2018. So chances are the GOP still holds the Governor's Mansion this year. The state legislature is also gerrymandered to ensure GOP majorities (looks like they have a 19-12 edge in State House seats in the area) so it's a fairly easy trifecta.
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