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Losing the Arab vote alone is not going to be enough to cost Biden Michigan. He won it by nearly 3 points in 2020 and the Arab vote probably at most netted him half a point on his statewide margin. They're only 2% of the population of MI, and I bet they're an even smaller share of the electorate since they probably turn out at lower rates than other demographics in the state.

If Michigan is close enough that Arabs can swing the state, Biden's lost ground with other demographics too and has most likely lost the other 5 main swing states.

Pedro Nuno Santos pointed that the PSD had "its worst result yet", and that the PS remains a strong party in Madeira:

PNS pointed to the "weakest result of the PSD" and that PS remained stable. He hopes that stability can be achieved with the election results, warning that holding elections after elections is not a good idea. He also pressed on the point that the right is only "confusion" and doesn't talk with each other, in the mainland and also Madeira.

So I did threads about Trump and Biden.

What would convince you that neither candidate is favored to win and both candidates have decent odds of winning?

We should try that one term only thing

Fun fact, the Confederate constitution had the exact same "6 year term with no option to run for reelection" system that Mexico does now. The Confederacy didn't last six years to actually try it out, of course.

[Georgia has only become less of a Republican state because of how anti-Trump it is!]

NE, KS, and AK. If it counts as a red state (probably doesn't), then AZ too.

Georgia has to be up there.

Georgia isn't exactly a "Republican state" anymore. Depending how you define it.

Georgia has only become less of a Republican state because of how anti-Trump it is! The GOP has still controlled GA-Gov and the State Legislature for >20 years.

Not true. Trends in Atlanta had already shifted the state noticeably leftward prior to Trump's entry to the national stage, from 2004 to 2008/2012 (Bush+17 to McCain+5 and Romney+7). Even without Trump GA would still have become fairly competitive by 2028 or 2032. The Trump factor merely accelerated the leftward shift.

Consider the fact that Trump's not the only GOPer to have lost in GA - Democrats have won the three most recent Senate elections as well.

The only reasonable conclusion regarding GA's politics now is that it's a purple state - possibly with the caveat that it has an R bias in state-level elections and D bias in federal elections (using the last 2 election cycles as a sample).

Mostly disagree with the D bias part. The 2021 runoff losses were directly attributed to Stop the Steal turnout drops in places like MTG's district. That election occurred at the peak of those sentiments literally the day before January 6 and super MAGA people didn't want to vote in what they thought was a rigged election. The suburbs swung back by enough for a Loeffler and Perdue win.

Herschel Walker is a unique case because he is a demigod to UGA fans but his political identity was tied to trump and he wouldn't have run if Trump hadn't told him to. All else being equal I think Any R who isn't seen as super MAGA would be favored against Generic D in a GA Senate race

Since 2020, Dems have won Georgia 4 times. So at this point, people need to stop attaching an asterisk next to every election and admit that Republicans just don’t have the same hold they used to have on the state.

If you’re talking about MA sen 2010, IN Sen 2012 or AL Sen 2017, that’s one thing, but it’s no longer just luck, bad candidates or circumstance when Dems have cracked Georgia this many times.

Well, let’s go through the list of accused crimes and see.

1. Engaging In A Continuing Criminal Enterprise
This appears to depend entirely on one’s definition of a “criminal enterprise”. In this case this man was running a website where some sellers sold drugs. I think this is a dubious charge. He can’t control everyone on his platform.

2. Distrusting Narcotics
What kind of drugs was he distributing? I am a staunch libertarian when it comes to drug use. I think people should be allowed to inhale burnt plant smoke as much as they want so long as they don’t harm other people. This in my opinion is not a serious crime.

3. Distributing Narcotics By Means Of The Internet
I refer to my previous answer.

4. Conspiring To Distribute Narcotics
I refer to my previous answer.

5. Conspiring To Commit Money Laundering
This again depends on one’s definition of what is a “crime” and what is not “a crime”. In this case this “crime” rests under the assumption that diverting funds from his sale of narcotics was illegal. For this I refer to my previous answer.

6. Conspiracy To Traffic In False Identity Documents
Uh oh. This is bad. This is very bad.

7. Conspiracy To Commit Computer Hacking
This isn’t as bad as it sounds. Perhaps the Federal Government with all of it’s power and resources should employ this man instead of imprison him? It’s long been the case that private companies will hire hackers to test the integrity of their current systems from future hacking.



Conclusion,
Most of these are not crimes in the vernacular sense. Uncle Sam would best be positioned to employ this man as a professional hacker but on house arrest. Keep him away from other people.

No, he puts up racist judges like GORSUCH, he put up Gorsuch that Kamala Harris called racist

The Crts need to be packed which Biden supports but he won't say it until Ds get the Trifecta

Up next, bringing back fox hunting and death penalty.

We should have a forum sweepstake for what the next policy they announce will be.

My guess: Cyclists will have to pay road tax

IL national leader Rui Rocha said that Cafôfo should "not waste his time with Liberals". So, yeah, no.

At this point it seems so baked in - and the fact Trump usually out performs polls by a decent amount. It would take a serious turn of events….

MULTIPLE polls from a broad range of outlets showing Biden ahead by 5-6 points nationally and by mid-single digits in 3 out of the 4 (AZ, GA, PA, MI) -

The lefties quiet down on gaza

and the inflation numbers drop through the floor, interest rates go down (2 cuts would be nice) and gas prices go below $3.

Lol Rs didn't outperform polls in 22 they lost