COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/i/events/1219057585707315201

I guess no more international travel, forever.

🙄

There will eventually be a vaccine or new anti-virals that will help with this.

The WHO has a clear agenda of decreasing morale, it’s just apparent at this point.

Nah, they are just acting like tone-deaf scientists. They warn it may never go away because there will almost certainly be some lingering outbreaks in less developed regions/among anti-vaxxer nuts kinda like somewhere in between Measles and Polio. The problem is, the WHO is completely tone-deaf and doesn’t understand saying things like these scares people who take the words out of context.

I know it sounds tone deaf. But trust me, as someone who’s spent the last two years being taught by microbiologists and virologists, it’s our duty to warn about all the likely outcomes, especially the bleaker ones. Even when talking about their own research area, it’s always couched in hypotheticals and somber warnings.

It’s one of the things they bake into you as a student: be aware of all the worst case scenarios that could arise from your research, and include them in your write up.

Most of these guys aren’t scaremongering, they see it as their ethical responsibility to present and discuss the worst case scenario.  

Yeah, this is totally wrong. Yes, it's certainly the media's fault for reporting these sorts of "may" statements of a 1% or 5% probability result as if they are guaranteed facts, but it's not as if the scientists aren't aware that they are making statements that will be picked up by the media--at this point, they are often statements made directly to the media! It's those scientists' duty to couch their words in precise ways that actually express what they mean. "May have X result" is not saying what they mean in a precise and easily understandable manner for non-scientists. They need to say things like "There is a small chance that...", "We believe there is approximately 5% chance of..." or similar types of phrasing. Anything else is irresponsibly overstating the negative downside scenarios and results in apocalyptic thinking and reporting.

I'm gonna have to disagree with you there.
Scientists are already working to pare down complex concepts and findings for the public's benefit. It's not their fault if the public can't be bothered to read past a sensationalist headline.

The real enemy here isn't researchers in the life sciences (who are, by all accounts, worked off their feet right now), it's widespread scientific illiteracy and bravado, that leads members of the public to assert that they understand this crisis better than experts like Dr Fauci.

[Tintrlvr]

Ugh, New York is reporting 190 deaths today compared to just 41 last Sunday.  California reporting 53 today compared to 26 last Sunday.  We are already nearing the nationwide death totals from last Sunday, and Illinois, Massachusetts, and Michigan all have yet to report anything.  Perhaps any optimism about a longer term decline was premature.

Not sure where you are getting the NY numbers. NY reported 141 deaths today (second-lowest since March, after this past Friday at 134) against 207 last Sunday.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/i/events/1219057585707315201

I guess no more international travel, forever.

🙄

There will eventually be a vaccine or new anti-virals that will help with this.

The WHO has a clear agenda of decreasing morale, it’s just apparent at this point.

Nah, they are just acting like tone-deaf scientists. They warn it may never go away because there will almost certainly be some lingering outbreaks in less developed regions/among anti-vaxxer nuts kinda like somewhere in between Measles and Polio. The problem is, the WHO is completely tone-deaf and doesn’t understand saying things like these scares people who take the words out of context.

I know it sounds tone deaf. But trust me, as someone who’s spent the last two years being taught by microbiologists and virologists, it’s our duty to warn about all the likely outcomes, especially the bleaker ones. Even when talking about their own research area, it’s always couched in hypotheticals and somber warnings.

It’s one of the things they bake into you as a student: be aware of all the worst case scenarios that could arise from your research, and include them in your write up.

Most of these guys aren’t scaremongering, they see it as their ethical responsibility to present and discuss the worst case scenario.  

Yeah, this is totally wrong. Yes, it's certainly the media's fault for reporting these sorts of "may" statements of a 1% or 5% probability result as if they are guaranteed facts, but it's not as if the scientists aren't aware that they are making statements that will be picked up by the media--at this point, they are often statements made directly to the media! It's those scientists' duty to couch their words in precise ways that actually express what they mean. "May have X result" is not saying what they mean in a precise and easily understandable manner for non-scientists. They need to say things like "There is a small chance that...", "We believe there is approximately 5% chance of..." or similar types of phrasing. Anything else is irresponsibly overstating the negative downside scenarios and results in apocalyptic thinking and reporting.

I'm gonna have to disagree with you there.
Scientists are already working to pare down complex concepts and findings for the public's benefit. It's not their fault if the public can't be bothered to read past a sensationalist headline.

The real enemy here isn't researchers in the life sciences (who are, by all accounts, worked off their feet right now), it's widespread scientific illiteracy and bravado, that leads members of the public to assert that they understand this crisis better than experts like Dr Fauci.

Hey, the media is much more terrible. But scientists have to be ready to be misinterpreted by the media and adjust accordingly. In particular, they should actually be more precise: "May" is a particularly perniciously vague word that should be excised from their vocabulary when speaking to the public because clearly scientists and the public have a very different conception of what it means. (Scientists: "may" means any odds over 0.1%; The Public: "may" means maybe a 25%-50% chance of happening.)

[Podgy the Bear]

Ugh, New York is reporting 190 deaths today compared to just 41 last Sunday.  California reporting 53 today compared to 26 last Sunday.  We are already nearing the nationwide death totals from last Sunday, and Illinois, Massachusetts, and Michigan all have yet to report anything.  Perhaps any optimism about a longer term decline was premature.

Not sure where you are getting the NY numbers. NY reported 141 deaths today (second-lowest since March, after this past Friday at 134) against 207 last Sunday.

It shows up on the Worldometers site:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Close to 91,000 deaths as of today, and it looks probable that we will reach 100,000 by Memorial Day. 

[T'Chenka]

I was told by a provincial police officer last night that a gentleman had a motorcycle accident and was airlifted to the local hospital, but upon arrival there were no doctors available to help him. This morning, a friend of mine who's sister works at the hospital told me he didn't think COVID was a big deal at that hospital. Public knowledge is discussion about COVID is far separated from reality.

Also had a guy taunt me with "yeah okay buddy" this morning when he attempted to walk directly next to me (6 inches or less shoulder to shoulder) and I moved 1 to 2 feet out of the way.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Behind North America’s Lowest Death Rate: A Doctor Who Fought Ebola


 Profile on Dr. Bonnie Henry a Canadian health official from British Columbia being praised for her campaign against Covid-19. Including fast distilling of information to doctors and health officials, quickly working up a test and testing procedures and commandeering nursing/care homes to stop the death rates there from spiraling out of control.

Henry is the first to caution against complacency. “We don’t know what is going to happen with this virus,” she said at a recent briefing, where she underscored how the province could quickly lose all the gains it’d made by easing restrictions too far. “We need to hold the line.”

She is exceptional at her job. I will also say that officially, my province never even closed down non-essential businesses. The message was always that you could stay open as long as your establishment could reasonably maintain social distancing protocols. Many stores/franchises belonging to national/multinational corporations shut down anyway for other considerations, but they were not ordered closed (save for personal services requiring close physical contact).

That being said, I am quite nervous about the return to school that will happen on June 1st. We really don't know enough about how this virus behaves with regards to children, and social distancing will be out the window for kids younger than eight. Personally, I've been straight quarantining so I can stay with my boyfriend and his mom, who has cancer. Me going back to work is going to change everything. I'll be at an unknown but higher level of risk that will basically make it impossible for me to see them. I'm not very happy, especially when you consider that they're really only sending us back as trial run for whatever ridiculousness is going to need to happen in September.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Testing hits an all-time high as test-positivity rate hits a new low (excluding the NJ negative test day):

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1262140597089034240

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/i/events/1219057585707315201

I guess no more international travel, forever.

🙄

There will eventually be a vaccine or new anti-virals that will help with this.

The WHO has a clear agenda of decreasing morale, it’s just apparent at this point.

Nah, they are just acting like tone-deaf scientists. They warn it may never go away because there will almost certainly be some lingering outbreaks in less developed regions/among anti-vaxxer nuts kinda like somewhere in between Measles and Polio. The problem is, the WHO is completely tone-deaf and doesn’t understand saying things like these scares people who take the words out of context.

I know it sounds tone deaf. But trust me, as someone who’s spent the last two years being taught by microbiologists and virologists, it’s our duty to warn about all the likely outcomes, especially the bleaker ones. Even when talking about their own research area, it’s always couched in hypotheticals and somber warnings.

It’s one of the things they bake into you as a student: be aware of all the worst case scenarios that could arise from your research, and include them in your write up.

Most of these guys aren’t scaremongering, they see it as their ethical responsibility to present and discuss the worst case scenario.  

Yeah, this is totally wrong. Yes, it's certainly the media's fault for reporting these sorts of "may" statements of a 1% or 5% probability result as if they are guaranteed facts, but it's not as if the scientists aren't aware that they are making statements that will be picked up by the media--at this point, they are often statements made directly to the media! It's those scientists' duty to couch their words in precise ways that actually express what they mean. "May have X result" is not saying what they mean in a precise and easily understandable manner for non-scientists. They need to say things like "There is a small chance that...", "We believe there is approximately 5% chance of..." or similar types of phrasing. Anything else is irresponsibly overstating the negative downside scenarios and results in apocalyptic thinking and reporting.

I'm gonna have to disagree with you there.
Scientists are already working to pare down complex concepts and findings for the public's benefit. It's not their fault if the public can't be bothered to read past a sensationalist headline.

The real enemy here isn't researchers in the life sciences (who are, by all accounts, worked off their feet right now), it's widespread scientific illiteracy and bravado, that leads members of the public to assert that they understand this crisis better than experts like Dr Fauci.

It amazes me the extent to which Dr. Fauci has become vilified by many in the Republican base. They view him as a bogeyman who is an "agent" of the Deep State and somehow in collusion with the Democrats, the Chinese, and Bill Gates to foist authoritarianism upon us. I've been astounded in general by the extent to which this virus has become politicized. There are so many ignorant people in this country.

[Grassroots]

Holy smokes that positive rate.

[Tintrlvr]

Ugh, New York is reporting 190 deaths today compared to just 41 last Sunday.  California reporting 53 today compared to 26 last Sunday.  We are already nearing the nationwide death totals from last Sunday, and Illinois, Massachusetts, and Michigan all have yet to report anything.  Perhaps any optimism about a longer term decline was premature.

Not sure where you are getting the NY numbers. NY reported 141 deaths today (second-lowest since March, after this past Friday at 134) against 207 last Sunday.

It shows up on the Worldometers site:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Close to 91,000 deaths as of today, and it looks probable that we will reach 100,000 by Memorial Day. 

Worldometers isn't as good as reporting this stuff as the states themselves. Don't rely on them for state-by-state data.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump needs to stop being a coward and assemble a coalition of the willing to turn their full might on the Chinese government in retaliation for all this.

For some reason, I doubt the PRC government is very concerned about your scenario.

That second image looks like something out of '28 Days/Weeks Later.'

[BudgieForce]

Sunday is always the day you have to remain skeptical about. But it's hard not to see the positive trends.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Sunday is always the day you have to remain skeptical about. But it's hard not to see the positive trends.

We have 422k tests done today a record

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/17 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>

5/3: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,187,804 (+27,030 | Δ Change: ↓8.32% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 68,589 (+1,142 | Δ Change: ↓31.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)

5/4:

• Cases: 1,212,835 (+25,031 | Δ Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑2.33%)
• Deaths: 69,921 (+1,332 | Δ Change: ↑16.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)

5/5:

• Cases: 1,236,987 (+24,152 | Δ Change: ↓3.51% | Σ Increase: ↑1.99%)
• Deaths: 72,241 (+2,320 | Δ Change: ↑74.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.32%)

5/6:

• Cases: 1,263,092 (+26,105 | Δ Change: ↑8.09% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 74,799 (+2,558 | Δ Change: ↑10.26% | Σ Increase: ↑3.54%)

5/7:

• Cases: 1,292,594 (+29,502 | Δ Change: ↑13.01% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 76,926 (+2,127 | Δ Change: ↓16.85% | Σ Increase: ↑2.84%)

5/8:

• Cases: 1,321,785 (+29,191 | Δ Change: ↓1.05% | Σ Increase: ↑2.26%)
• Deaths: 78,615 (+1,689 | Δ Change: ↓20.59% | Σ Increase: ↑2.20%)

5/9:

• Cases: 1,347,309 (+25,524 | Δ Change: ↓12.56% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,037 (+1,422 | Δ Change: ↓15.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)

5/10: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,367,638 (+20,329 | Δ Change: ↓20.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,787 (+750 | Δ Change: ↓47.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

5/11:

• Cases: 1,385,834 (+18,196 | Δ Change: ↓10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.33%)
• Deaths: 81,795 (+1,008 | Δ Change: ↑34.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)

5/12:

• Cases: 1,408,155 (+22,321 | Δ Change: ↑22.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.61%)
• Deaths: 83,377 (+1,582 | Δ Change: ↑56.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)

5/13:

• Cases: 1,430,348 (+22,193 | Δ Change: ↓0.57% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 85,197 (+1,820 | Δ Change: ↑15.44% | Σ Increase: ↑2.18%)

5/14:

• Cases: 1,456,828 (+26,480 | Δ Change: ↑19.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 86,901 (+1,704 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑2.00%)

5/15 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,483,736 (+26,908 | Δ Change: ↑1.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 88,479 (+1,578 | Δ Change: ↓7.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.82%)

5/16:

• Cases: 1,505,033 (+21,297 | Δ Change: ↓20.85% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 89,511 (+1,032 | Δ Change: ↓34.60% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)

5/17 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,526,842 (+21,809 | Δ Change: ↑2.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 90,973 (+1,462 | Δ Change: ↑41.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)

[BudgieForce]

Sunday is always the day you have to remain skeptical about. But it's hard not to see the positive trends.

We have 422k tests done today a record

I have seen some speculation it might have been partly due to a backlog from California. But haven't seen it confirmed anywhere.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Sunday is always the day you have to remain skeptical about. But it's hard not to see the positive trends.

We have 422k tests done today a record

I have seen some speculation it might have been partly due to a backlog from California. But haven't seen it confirmed anywhere.

Yeah, on covid tracking project they only show them doing 56k tests today up from 45k yesterday

But in terms of backlog I don't see evidence for that either.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Trump needs to stop being a coward and assemble a coalition of the willing to turn their full might on the Chinese government in retaliation for all this.

62 countries from the United Nations are keen for an enquiry.

Apparently, Trump listened to some phone intercepts from the Wuhan Lab and thought he heard them say they were "looking to purchase Uranium from Africa".

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Latest US vs. European case and death graphs.   

Today was setting up to be the best day in two months for the European totals, likely reducing the cumulative 7-day average below 1000 for for the first time since March 23.  But then France dropped 483 new deaths onto the total, resulting in the biggest jump in the 7-day average in over a month.  Apparently only 54 of those deaths are from hospitals, the rest are accumulated nursing home deaths, but this will hurt the drop in averages all for the next several days. 

[Grassroots]

5/17 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,526,842 (+21,809 | Δ Change: ↑2.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 90,973 (+1,462 | Δ Change: ↑41.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)

What's up with these numbers, Sunday is usually the lowest day for deaths.

[Dr. Arch]

5/17 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,526,842 (+21,809 | Δ Change: ↑2.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 90,973 (+1,462 | Δ Change: ↑41.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)

What's up with these numbers, Sunday is usually the lowest day for deaths.

Deaths are always lagging, so they could be just catching up still. The case increase is not too much, basically flat.

[Grassroots]

5/17 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,526,842 (+21,809 | Δ Change: ↑2.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 90,973 (+1,462 | Δ Change: ↑41.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)

What's up with these numbers, Sunday is usually the lowest day for deaths.

Deaths are always lagging, so they could be just catching up still. The case increase is not too much, basically flat.

What website do you use?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

5/17 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,526,842 (+21,809 | Δ Change: ↑2.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 90,973 (+1,462 | Δ Change: ↑41.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)

What's up with these numbers, Sunday is usually the lowest day for deaths.

Deaths are always lagging, so they could be just catching up still. The case increase is not too much, basically flat.

Yeah but typically coroners' offices are closed on Sundays. This was true during the peaking in April.

Is there a state that did a dump today? I didn't see state-by-state numbers before they wiped the numbers so I didn't get to check for anything out of the ordinary.

Also I see Worldometer only reporting ~860 new deaths on the 17th.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1262190454776442889?s=20

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1262190454776442889?s=20

That doesn't surprise me, Trump is adamant on proving it was a man made bioweapon

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1262190454776442889?s=20

Are you telling me that a coronavirus with similar relatives in bats and pangolins, that emerged in a city known for an illicit pangolin trade, didn’t come from a laboratory but may have natural origins?
I don’t believe you or this fake news.