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I've already totally written him off.

[So you truly have to appeal to real solutions for economic issues like union support, taxation rates, and cost of living]

Las Vegas is just such a wonderfully unique place because it forces our politicians to be much more thoughtful about what really matters to people and how to message those concerns. I get the sense that Vegas voters don't really care much for cultural hot-button issues in the same way they might motivate the base in other states. So you truly have to appeal to real solutions for economic issues like union support, taxation rates, and cost of living. This is how Obama won in a landslide, and part of what makes the Harry Reid machine work. Last year when Cortez Masto won against the odds, she insisted on messaging about the economy and abortion, and voters were smart enough to make the distinction between the policies.

As to the main question - Las Vegas is always going to be unique as long as it is a state that operates with a tourism based economy. Only Hawaii has a similar economic base, but it has the odd distinction of having an unusually large number of liberal retirees and other qualities that have kept it fairly left leaning (although one of the most "conservative" blue states).

The bolded part might have to do with why all 3 Vegas-area House Dems won by relatively comfortable margins last November, at least relative to online/pundit expectations.

Cut

Interesting piece - I’ll give a more thorough analysis on it when I have time but one thing I will say is I think Nevada’s growing Asian population is really under discussed.

I feel like Brown is finally running out of luck. Even if Biden gets reelected and doesn't get crushed in Ohio (ergo, just small shifts between 2020 and 2024). As of today, I'd say Moreno wins by three or four points. Brown still has a chance though.

Uncategorized. It's like asking where "apolitical" is on the ideological scale.

Would you say the same about theism?  Because I would think if theism is considered ideological in any way, atheism has to be, as well.  FTR, I would probably say neither are inherently ideological in nature, though they probably predispose people toward certain ideologies for cultural issues.

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Okay this surprised me, I haven't been paying the closet attention recently and I assumed we were still looking at the end of the year?

Don’t beat yourself up about it, from the reactions in SW1 today, basically everyone else did too…

Yeah I now see from the reactions that this was another puzzling out of left field decision from Sunak.

Though hey I'm pretty happy about it, summer election lets go!

In Preston the NDP vote went down 1% - the Liberal votes went down 20%...it just seems like the bottom is falling out of Liberal support in Nova Scotia - and I think federal Liberal cabinet minister Sean Fraser could be in big trouble in the next federal election - and Pictou is in that federal seat 

New York is changing my friend. The hometown hero is home and New Yorkers are loving it.

The "hometown hero" that lives in Floridump? Yeah sure.

Anyway, Biden is not winning NY by only 9. Garbage poll.

Trump loved his hometown so much that he ran from it as fast as he could.

Sadly it looks like Biden is going to get New York this time around, but if Trump can somehow get it to single digits it would be huge. Right now I'm thinking it's going to be around <15ish but that may change. Still a strong performance from Trump in the Empire State could help house Republicans like Lawler and D'Esposito significantly. 

I live in NY and Biden +15, give or take 2 points is about right