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It's a roll of the dice, but it might.

Biden is less popular than the party and running behind many of its Senate candidates. Even a mediocrity like Harris could pull things in their direction. It's one thing to have a candidate who is merely uninspiring, and quite another to have a doddering, out-of-touch figure dragging the party down.

This is all the more important because Democrats are missing out on an opportunity to lay down an obvious contrast with Republicans. It's hard to keep voters focused on Trump's age-related decline when your own candidate is confusedly reading stage directions off of the teleprompter and seeming to forget what year it is.

Yes, it could end up being quite random, especially when we're talking of people hanging on or losing by a few hundred votes...

Who the next leader is (or at least who the final two are who are presented to the membership) will depend on the makeup of the parliamentary party, and that’s something that I’m not sure we have any real idea about; both because, with the kind of uncharted polling territory we’re in, there’s a wide range of outcomes of how many and which seats the Tories will win, and because there’s not any strong correlation between type/safeness of seat and the relative ideological alignment of their MPs.

How does this keep happening
https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1795059989305823246

As a fellow Cameroonian, I'm not surprised my compatriots are running away from the country, we have the longest serving  dictator elected head of state after all. My cousin did the same thing a year ago though unlike this unfortunate man, he wasn't stopped and is now in a refugee camp in Italy.

Though I must say using the desert is way too risky at this point. Almost anyone with more than a high school level of education or at least 2 years of work experience can get into Canada legally within a year provided you have some money, so that's what most people do these days.

Short of a serious medical emergency, it ain't happening.  And, if it did, at this point, it would just ensure a Trump victory.

The 'genocide' accusation is not simply a good-faith misuse of terminology. It's part of a concerted attempt to trivialize the Holocaust and draw an equivalency between Israel and Nazi Germany. The goal of recasting Israelis as the 'new Nazis' is to win global acquiescence for the destruction of Israel. Who after all would want to defend a country that's 'genocidal'?

They're trying to lose, aren't they?

Honestly seems that way, doesn't it? Calling the election on a lark when the party is unprepared in over 200 constituencies. Blair-ing "Things Can Only Get Better" over his election call while he was busy getting drenched head-to-toe by heavy rain because No. 10 apparently forgot the concept of an indoor speech after COVID. His Welsh football mistake. Docking the sinking ship at the Titanic Quarter in Belfast because the Tory just had to go on a 4-nation tour like Nixon went to Hawaii in 1960. Trusting Gove to not retire. One-up'ing a tepidly unpopular Starmer announcement by announcing certifiably insane policy. If he's a Labour mole playing the long game, I'm not sure what he should've done any differently to kick the campaign off. I'm just sayin', if we never actually ruled out Truss being a secret Lib Dem mole solely intent on taking the Tories down, maybe we can't rule out a guy who was 16 in 1997 being a secret Blair fanboy either

I think I've said on here before that Sunak has never really figured out whether he wants to be the adult in the room or a red meat-throwing populist.

It's this fundamental disconnect, combined with clearly crap political instincts as well as an ultra-rich person awkwardness that could well turn this into one of the worst campaigns that any of us have ever seen. If the Tories have any sense they should stop him from running this as a presidential campaign immediately.

Warning: I just had to nuke a long quote chain due to some rather ugly Islamophobic bigotry.  I am the last person on atlas who could be accused of being a Tlaib apologist and I share the anger/frustration with both her rabid anti-Semitism and performative nonsense to help Trump.  However, these sentiments can be expressed without resorting to Islamophobic bigotry. I’m not going to have a high tolerance for this sort of thing, so everyone would be advised to step back and take a deep breath.  You’ve been warned.

If I were to put money on a candidate, it would be Trump. Not because I think he's under-valued, but because then if he wins, I'll have a payout waiting for me to make me feel better about it.