2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[cp]

A nifty tool, this

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323636301334282242

[cp]

A nifty tool, this

Might be the most British-thing that will be said today

Lol, thanks. I think. Was born and raised in Canada, fwiw.

[cp]

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexi/status/1323652518698717187

"Hey how you guys doing? I'm Joe Biden.  Listen, can I sign your wall?  I mean, the wall that used to be my wall?"

Ok but if the next President of the United States showed up at my doorstep & asked to sign my wall, I'd let them do so in a heartbeat

(In all seriousness, though, this pic makes me so emotional & honestly tears me up a little bit. It's like following a character's life story from humble beginnings, through all their ups & downs, to now finally being about to achieve their end goal after putting in a lifetime of hard work & effort to get here.)

Not kidding: it would substantially increase the value of the house. Documents with actual presidential signatures on them are auctioned for thousands upon thousands of dollars.

[cp]

Is that including the Miami-Dade numbers?

[cp]

Maybe we shift to the Discord server since the site will inevitably crash?

Anyone got a link?

I can send you one

Could I get one, too?

[cp]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

That conclusion is based on two assumptions:

- That there are more registered Republicans willing to vote for Biden than registered Democrats willing to vote for Trump

- That the NPA/Other vote is made up of independents who will break for Biden

If you accept both of these assumptions*, and you interpolate from 2016 what the threshold for victory will be in terms of raw votes, then you can draw a conclusion about whether this is good or bad for Biden.

*There is evidence (polling data) that corroborates these assumptions.

[cp]

GOP Florida Turnout advantage at the end of early voting was around -129,000

2:41 Pm update: +133,11 (not including a few counties that manually report including Miami-Dade
In Miami, Dems entered today with 40.7% of votes cast being Democrats, 30.7% Republicans.
Today, 35% Dems, 31% republicans.

GOP outperforming 2016 turnout in wwc areas and latinx areas and Dems doing well in Suburbia, especially Seminole.

Florida is an enigma. No matter what, a candidate makes gains with one group and loses ground in another. It's astonishing. It's like the people of Florida have some unspoken agreement to make every race under 2%.

 ... concealed in a mystery, hidden in a riddle, ... chugged by a dude.

[cp]

Unfortunately, it looks like Trump will lose the election. What a sad day for the world.

It's way too early to determine if the first part of this is true. If it's true, though, the second part is just plain wrong.

[cp]

48% think our containment is going well? HUH?

Early exit polls are wonky but if this *is* true, wtf?

It makes sense when you think about it. The sorts of people who think voting in person is totally fine right now - or, put another way, didn't opt to 'play it safe' by voting in absentia - are probably going to believe the COVID pandemic is not so serious.

[cp]

Dont these exit polls also reach out to early voters?  They'd be meaningless otherwise when the majority of people voted early.

I don't know what methodology they used to reach out to non-in-person voters, but it's kind of moot. If they're doing anything other than interviewing people who have just walked out of the polling place, then their results are subject to all the same variations that regular polling is. It's not that the exit polls will be meaningless, just that they'll lack the enhanced accuracy that they usually possess.

[cp]

It's not a proper exit poll unless David Dimbleby reveals it after a build up of tension and music and then totally contradicts everyone's expectations

Big Ben has hit 10' and we now project a Hung Parliament with Labour being the largest party

If only ...

[cp]

Yeah, CNN seriously over sampled election day voters. 61% of those sampled voted on election day.

You're assuming they didn't weight the responses.

Again, that would make them no better than conventional polls. Valuable in some respect, sure, but nothing to invest extra authority in.

[cp]

Opening my birthday cognac.

Happy birthday!

[cp]

So, Biden’s going to win WI and MI, isn’t he?

Yes, it does look that way at the moment.

[cp]

So.. I'll ask again.

Do we actually know anything about when PA results are coming? They literally have barely budged all day. Given this entire race is.. hinging on it?

I believe it's understood that PA will not finalize its count until Friday.

[cp]

Trump lead down to 6% in PA. I really think Biden is going to win it once all is counted.

Hence this bullsh**t ...

https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1324086031591886850?s=19

You have won PA just like Lukashenko has „won“ Belarus ...

[cp]

CNN calls MI for Biden!

[cp]

So to sum this up:

- Biden wins NV (by an underwhelming margin, to the right of the nation)
- Biden wins AZ
- Biden wins GA very narrowly
- Trump probably wins NC very narrowly
- PA will go down to the wire, with Biden very slightly favored?
- Trump will win AK

Trump is pretty much toast.

Senate:

- Sullivan will win AK
- Tillis will win by a point or a little less in NC, outperforming Trump
- Collins has won in ME
- McSally is toast in AZ

Meaning the Senate will be 50R/48D when all is said and done, with the GA runoffs deciding Senate control.

Is this accurate? Curious about PA in particular.

From what I can gather, Biden is heavily favored in PA at this rate. At least, that's according to the Nates and other analysts.

I'm not sure Nate Silver has any credibility left. There are probably better people you could turn to for an understanding of the remaining vote.

Nate isn't a pollster, but from what information he had, he seems to have called this right, for the most part. Certainly well enough if it were a medical trial or something.

Yeah, he did about as well as the information he was provided with could have allowed him to do. For those wishing there had been a bigger Dem/Biden win, I think some of the criticism of Silver has to do with this being the fourth general election in a row where Dem results fell short of hopes/expectations.

[cp]

Will NV be called today? or is everyone sh**tting their pants hoping PA does the job for everyone?

NV will not be called today.  PA may be called today, but Biden at this point is certain to win it in the end.  Biden will overtake Trump in GA today too, but the margin is going to be within recount range so they might not call it.  (ABC, for one, has a policy of not calling any state with a margin <1% until the results are official.)

In short: it's really all but over.  Trump's chances are like an ice cube on hot sidewalk in the summer.  It's melting as we watch, and will soon be gone.

That's the most Georgia simile I've ever heard.

[cp]

I'm checking out of this thread for the time being. I don't need this cock and ball torture without the cock and balls right now. I'll be lurking on the NYT results page for the time being, like an animal. See all you beautiful people once Philly shoots its load.

Wow! After reading that post, I'm blushing. Now I need a cigarette. We'll see you soon.

I would like more vivid descriptions, please.

Bonk!

[cp]

Secret Service and FAA know who the next POTUS is:

https://twitter.com/SenWhitehouse/status/1324431035606700033?s=20

President-elect Joe Biden. God, I love that.

Do you really? Or do you just like that the democrats will be back in the white house?

Most democrats I know, all agree that Biden is an awful candidate on the basis that after 47 years he's still achieved nothing in politics, is likely taking corrupt money from foreign governments and changes his positions on core policies to suit the mood.

This is a thread to discuss election results. To keep ourselves sane we go off topic & joke around but please don't just point stupid talking points- you're not on the sunday shows.

Each of the points I made was a fair one. After 47 years, Biden has suddenly decided 8 year olds should legally be allowed to have a sex change. right....

OMG! I didn't know you were an Atlas poster. I *love* your books. Prisoner of Askaban is my favourite, but I kinda love the Philosopher's Stone, too.

[cp]

Trumpland
https://twitter.com/rooshv/status/1324183227951624194?s=20

It's the bread scientist!

BANG! (my favourite brand of mascara)

[cp]

Updates from AZ, PA and GA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 46,667 (90% counted)

Of the remaining ~340,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 146,500 of them - (43.0%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 1,267 (>99% counted)

Of the remaining ~22,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 11,634 of them - (52.9%)

PA - Biden down by 18,229 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~270,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~144,115 of them - (53.4%)

The ratios of late votes coming in the last 4 hours:

AZ (Biden : Trump =  53.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.8%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

Per the NYT map, the gap in GA is down to 665.

If only for the sake of comparison, I'd be interested to see the figures for NC and AK. The Senate races in both could also still be in contention if the EV ratios for the Dems are comparable to GA or PA.

[cp]

Updates from AZ, PA and GA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 46,667 (90% counted)

Of the remaining ~340,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 146,500 of them - (43.0%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 1,267 (>99% counted)

Of the remaining ~22,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 11,634 of them - (52.9%)

PA - Biden down by 18,229 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~270,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~144,115 of them - (53.4%)

The ratios of late votes coming in the last 4 hours:

AZ (Biden : Trump =  53.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.8%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

Per the NYT map, the gap in GA is down to 665.

If only for the sake of comparison, I'd be interested to see the figures for NC and AK. The Senate races in both could also still be in contention if the EV ratios for the Dems are comparable to GA or PA.

Other than only around 1/2 of the estimated eligible vote has been counted in Alaska, is there any reason to believe it will become competitive?

The outstanding ballots are all mail-in and EV. Considering the proportions seen elsewhere tonight, it's not unreasonable to assume they might make the race competitive.

[cp]

Update from GA only.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 46,667 (90% counted)

Of the remaining ~340,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 146,500 of them - (43.0%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 463 (>99% counted)

Of the remaining ~20,700 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 10,582 of them - (51.1%)

PA - Biden down by 18,229 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~270,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~144,115 of them - (53.4%)

AK - Biden down by 51,382 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~93,500 of them - (69.0%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~287,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~182,000 of them - (63.4%)

The ratios of late votes coming in the last 4 hours:

AZ (Biden : Trump =  53.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.8%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

I’m sorry to be kinda dumb but what’s the difference in your red and green coloring?

Sorry, sorry.  I feel like I’m going to look so stupid asking that.....

There's different colouring? Stupid colour blindness.