2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[gf20202]

Politico has seemed to have quietly called Arizona, unless I missed them do it earlier.

I'm not sure but they might use AP for their election results.

They do. A news outlet can reject the call. The NYT has for example, but Politico clearly didn't.

[NOVA Green]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Given that, do we know how many ballots are still out there?

There's approx 9k of early votes left in GA plus provisionals and any late arriving mail. Vast majority is in Gwinett, which has gone home for the night, and Clayton which said they are trying to finish.

But late arriving mail won't count in GA, right?

Clayton appears to be doing the drip... drip... drip...

Many of those workers have already banked OT thus far, and more than happy to use their PTO to take the day off Tomorrow to get it all counted....

Still Clayton is not yet done counting yet Tonight.... (At least what appears to currently be the case)

[Ununpentium]

I can’t post links yet but look up “2020 Election Sting Operation Donald Trump Blockchain Security Steve Pieczenik Interview” on Youtube. 🤔

[Blair]

Whats the current consensus on Arizona?

[Ferguson97]

also possibly dumb question but posting here because of the traffic... how do I remove the prediction maps from the side of my posts near where my avatar is? I saw everyone else didn't have them anymore either.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Whats the current consensus on Arizona?

I consider it as good as won for Biden. Not sure about others.

[gf20202]

Whats the current consensus on Arizona?

Consensus? Doomers and trolls are worried about it, consensus is that while Trump will keep gaining that Biden should win it by 20 to 40k since not all of Maricopa dumps will give Trump what he needs.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

According to the link at bottom of the last page, this is about how many votes are left in every state:


PN: 275,348
NC: 190,621
GA: 8,474
AZ: 309,034
NV: 146,757
AK: 193,975

[Sbane]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Irrespective of who wins or loses Georgia, Trump performed better virtually everywhere than the Republicans did in 2018, yet Brian Kamp won the governorship in Georgia by 53,000 votes.  I think this provides even more evidence that Brian Kamp stole the governorship.

That was with a midterm electorate and this is with a general election electorate. In a state like Georgia with a strong age divide, that will benefit the Republicans over the Democrats. Also why Republicans do better in the runoffs.

[NOVA Green]

I can’t post links yet but look up “2020 Election Sting Operation Donald Trump Blockchain Security Steve Pieczenik Interview” on Youtube. 🤔

Welcome to the Forum Ununpentium....

No idea what your post is about, and certainly is not at the top of my watch list right now...

But any opinions regarding about current election results from Louisiana and interesting shifts and trends in various parts of your State?

I believe within the past 24 Hours there were various posters looking at some of the swings towards Trump and towards Biden in certain parts of the State.

What's your opinion about the apparent shifts and swings in LA now that most of the votes are finally getting close to being counted by region?

Always good to see new posters from States that might be a bit underrepresented on Atlas / Talk Election....

[gf20202]

Shauna from Clayton County on CNN in actual useful interview. She says 3500 left and anticipates "early morning" finish. They are going to just keep going all night, seems like several hours.

[DaleCooper]

This is pretty obscure and frankly a bit irrelevant now, but I'm surprised that Sarpy County, which is the other county that comprises NE-02, has swung quite massively towards Biden. Its leftward shift is actually greater even than Douglas county.

[Benjamin Frank]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Irrespective of who wins or loses Georgia, Trump performed better virtually everywhere than the Republicans did in 2018, yet Brian Kamp won the governorship in Georgia by 53,000 votes.  I think this provides even more evidence that Brian Kamp stole the governorship.

That was with a midterm electorate and this is with a general election electorate. In a state like Georgia with a strong age divide, that will benefit the Republicans over the Democrats. Also why Republicans do better in the runoffs.

Totally disagree.  2018 was a semi-wave Democratic cycle.

[2952-0-0]

He's out of his f[inks]ing mind.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324612560646262785

[Hnv1]

I expected to wake up to a blue PA, how many ballots are left there?

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

This shows the vote total in each swing state, as well as the composition of each batch of votes and the trailing candidate's progress.

Lovely! Thank you?

When can we expect the last big dump from philly?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

He's out of his f[inks]ing mind.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324612560646262785

Those dastardly Democrats ran candidates! In an election year!

My god this is Pearl Harbor, Fort Sumter, and 9/11 all rolled into one.

[gf20202]

I expected to wake up to a blue PA, how many ballots are left there?

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

This shows the vote total in each swing state, as well as the composition of each batch of votes and the trailing candidate's progress.

Lovely! Thank you?

When can we expect the last big dump from philly?

There are no big dumps. It is going to be a slow determined trickle. Biden might take the lead in 2 or3 hours at this rate.

[GoTfan]

So what's the general line here?

[Angasboy15]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324613181466173440

[NOVA Green]

This is pretty obscure and frankly a bit irrelevant now, but I'm surprised that Sarpy County, which is the other county that comprises NE-02, has swung quite massively towards Biden. Its leftward shift is actually greater even than Douglas county.

IMHO that is actually not that surprising, since actually it did not swing that heavily DEM from '12 to '16 in significant numbers, even in the wealthiest precincts / communities.

Apparently I can no longer directly quote my own comments from the thread, but here it is:

"Pulled a few numbers from the wealthiest places in Nebraska...

1.) Waverly- (Lancaster County) MHI $77.7k-  Pop 3.4k

2012: (36 D- 62 R)        +26 R
2016: (25 D- 68 R)        +43 R     (+17% Rep Swing)

*** Note that Lancaster does not break down absentee ballots by Precinct for either '12 nor '16, which was roughly 25% of the County vote. Also, note that in the County absentee ballots were heavily Dem in both elections, so we have a potential significant distortion with any precinct level results here.

2.) Gretna-   (Sarpy County)--- MHI $73.7k-  Pop 5.1k

Precincts 59 & 60

2012: (32 D- 66 R)      +34 R
2016: (29 D- 62 R)      +33 R   (+1% D Swing)

3.) Papillion- (Sarpy County)--- MHI $ 72.4k- Pop 20.2k

Precincts 36,38,39,40, & 42).... There appears to be a few split precincts not included, but had to work with the best data available.

2012: (36 D- 62 R)       +26 R
2016: (33 D- 57 R)       +24 R   (+2% D Swing)

4.) Yankee Hill- (Lancaster County)- MHI $93.6- Pop 730

2012: (37 D- 62 R)        +25 R
2016: (32 D- 61 R)        +29 R   (+4% R Swing)

So again, insert caveat about absentee votes in Lancaster County....

Interestingly enough Nebraska appears to be one of the few states in the Country thus far where there does not appear to have been a swing towards Clinton of upper-income voters, based upon this limited data selection...

Some of this might be the imbalance inherent in solely looking at MHI by cities/places.... so for example it could well be that there are relatively wealthy precincts in Omaha and Lincoln for example where there were significant swings towards the Democratic Party in '16.... I mean even looking at uninc areas in West Houston Texas, this phenomenon was evident.

To what extent is there a "selection bias" and differences in relatively affluent voting patterns in places like Omaha and Lincoln where real estate is relatively cheap between those that would rather live in Exurban settings versus in nice leafy older neighborhoods within a "City"?"

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5715360#msg5715360

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324613181466173440

I don’t like this Downfall remake

[Benjamin Frank]

Politics aside, who is more annoying on CNN: Rick Santorum or Chris Cuomo?

Did anybody just see that segment with Chris Cuomo where he was obsessing about a recount in Georgia and constantly trying to push (bully) the narrative? I'm not even sure what he was on about, whether he was trying to keep the horserace narrative alive or whether he genuinely wasn't aware that recounts don't change more than a handful of votes.

[darklordoftech]

Interesting how the 2020 map is shaping up to match predictions for 2016. I remember hearing thar Hillary could win Georgia and Arizona but wasn’t doing well in Ohio.

[gf20202]

Biden just gained 602 votes in GA. The margin is now just 665 in Georgia.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Updates from AZ, PA and GA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 46,667 (90% counted)

Of the remaining ~340,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 146,500 of them - (43.0%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 665 (>99% counted)

Of the remaining ~21,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 10,833 of them - (51.6%)

PA - Biden down by 18,229 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~270,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~144,115 of them - (53.4%)

The ratios of late votes coming in the last 4 hours:

AZ (Biden : Trump =  53.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.8%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)