2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ExSky]

If Miami-Dade is good for the R's as I think it could be, the best I can really see the R's ending up at in FL is right about +300k. Is that enough? I don't know. I think it'll be really close, like usual.

If Miami-Dade is better for the D's, Biden likely wins.

MD Republican turnout in the EV was really high. I guess it’s possibly but it would need ridiculous turnout

[Xing]

So are these Florida numbers good or no?

No one knows for sure, and we won't until we actually see the results. This whole thread is just speculation, at this point.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609
might be slowing down

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I think one of the only things that we can say for sure is that "low-turnout models" need not apply.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nov 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks jumped on Tuesday as investors bet that one of the country's most divisive presidential races would end with a clear victory for Democratic nominee Joe Biden and a swift deal on more fiscal stimulus.

All 11 major S&P indexes were up in early trading, led by financial, healthcare and industrial stocks.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-st-jumps-154216065.html

[Hammy]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1323678629491056642

https://twitter.com/BobMooreNews/status/1323676264427868161
Is this true?

Something tells me Trump ain't gonna do much better than Cruz 2018, in margin and support.

I still believe!

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609
might be slowing down

So adjusting for Sarasota, you’re under 20k/hr for the GOP now

[swf541]

If Miami-Dade is good for the R's as I think it could be, the best I can really see the R's ending up at in FL is right about +300k. Is that enough? I don't know. I think it'll be really close, like usual.

If Miami-Dade is better for the D's, Biden likely wins.

This makes complete sense

[BudgieForce]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

Democrats are going to have a vote deficit. They always do. Democrat's goal is to keep that deficit below a certain number. Some here were speculating that number to be -400,000 votes. But no one knows for sure.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609
might be slowing down

So adjusting for Sarasota, you’re under 20k/hr for the GOP now

we have no idea for vbm or late surges so sure

[Dr. Arch]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

I don't know how many times it has to be said that we can't extrapolate from party registration alone, especially when like 20% of the electorate does not register with either party. This goes for any state with party registration, except, maybe, Nevada.

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609
might be slowing down

So adjusting for Sarasota, you’re under 20k/hr for the GOP now

Is Sarasota dem or gop friendly?

[cp]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

That conclusion is based on two assumptions:

- That there are more registered Republicans willing to vote for Biden than registered Democrats willing to vote for Trump

- That the NPA/Other vote is made up of independents who will break for Biden

If you accept both of these assumptions*, and you interpolate from 2016 what the threshold for victory will be in terms of raw votes, then you can draw a conclusion about whether this is good or bad for Biden.

*There is evidence (polling data) that corroborates these assumptions.

[YE]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

Consensus seems to be if R lead is less than 300-400K at the end of the day, it’s good for Biden pending NPA’s.

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609
might be slowing down

So adjusting for Sarasota, you’re under 20k/hr for the GOP now

Is Sarasota dem or gop friendly?

Was +10 Trump but I’m expecting that to close heavily this year.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609
might be slowing down

So adjusting for Sarasota, you’re under 20k/hr for the GOP now

Is Sarasota dem or gop friendly?

Sarasota COUNTY? GOP friendly.  Lots of white retirees there.  

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609
might be slowing down

So adjusting for Sarasota, you’re under 20k/hr for the GOP now

Is Sarasota dem or gop friendly?

Was +10 Trump but I’m expecting that to close heavily this year.

Thanks

[Hammy]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

That conclusion is based on two assumptions:

- That there are more registered Republicans willing to vote for Biden than registered Democrats willing to vote for Trump

- That the NPA/Other vote is made up of independents who will break for Biden

If you accept both of these assumptions*, and you interpolate from 2016 what the threshold for victory will be in terms of raw votes, then you can draw a conclusion about whether this is good or bad for Biden.

*There is evidence (polling data) that corroborates these assumptions.

Thank you, this gives an actual explanation (as I don't know a lot about election day returns pre-count) rather than simply complaining that the question's being asked.

[Hindsight was 2020]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

Trump won FL by 1% with a R+6 advantage and Scott/DeSantis won with under 1% with a R+4 advantage. We are at almost two a clock with high GOP turnout this morning and no major dem areas reporting yet and the R advantage is +1.35. Do the math

[BlueSwan]

Despite being a pessimist at heart, I have a hard time seeing massive turnout numbers like these possibly being bad for Uncle Joe. Why would millions of normally disengaged voters suddenly turn out for the orange clown? It would make basically zero sense. You would have to think that a majority of these people are showing up to get rid of him.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609
might be slowing down

So adjusting for Sarasota, you’re under 20k/hr for the GOP now

Is Sarasota dem or gop friendly?

Sarasota COUNTY? GOP friendly.  Lots of white retirees there.  

You think this makes it easier for Biden to win?

[Dr. Arch]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

That conclusion is based on two assumptions:

- That there are more registered Republicans willing to vote for Biden than registered Democrats willing to vote for Trump

- That the NPA/Other vote is made up of independents who will break for Biden

If you accept both of these assumptions*, and you interpolate from 2016 what the threshold for victory will be in terms of raw votes, then you can draw a conclusion about whether this is good or bad for Biden.

*There is evidence (polling data) that corroborates these assumptions.

Thank you, this gives an actual explanation (as I don't know a lot about election day returns pre-count) rather than simply complaining that the question's being asked.

The question has been asked and addressed to similar detail at least half a dozen times since VBM and Early In-Person Voting started.

[Bootes Void]

Vote still left in Florida(maybe not including Miami Dade and a few counties)
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323696323766398976

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609
might be slowing down

So adjusting for Sarasota, you’re under 20k/hr for the GOP now

Is Sarasota dem or gop friendly?

Sarasota COUNTY? GOP friendly.  Lots of white retirees there.  

You think this makes it easier for Biden to win?

Oh I just relay the fun-facts, Ferg.  You want the next door on your left for actual analysis.