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June 01, 2024, 07:50:09 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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 1 
 on: Today at 07:47:58 AM 
Started by America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS - Last post by Antonio the Sixth
Free will exists and is fully compatible with determinism. The whole issue is a pseudo-problem born of an incoherent understanding of modality.

I'd be interested to hear some elaboration on this.

Free will, in the sense that actually matters to discussions of human agency, is the idea that a person's actions are a product of their own conscious choices. We sometimes act in ways that weren't dictated by our free will, to the extent that a lot of our behaviors are driven by instincts (I don't really choose to pull my hand away from a hot stove). But obviously we also have plenty of latitude for conscious choices as well, or else the distinction wouldn't even make sense in the first place.

Under this framework, whether the universe is deterministic or not has no bearing on the existence of free will. My choices don't become less free or less genuine by virtue of being part of a larger causal chain. Indeed, as Alcibiades points out, it would probably be more damaging to our common sense of free will if indeterminism is true, since it would mean our decisions are ultimately random and thus in some sense meaningless. I don't think that means free will wouldn't still be a thing in such an universe (I think the existence of free will is a self-evident truth) but either way, I'd rather live in a deterministic one. Viewing our own choices as parts of a causal picture allow us greater control over them, and thus ultimately greater freedom to act according to our more fundamental values and preferences. If I know putting myself in a certain situation will lead me to make choices I come to regret, I can do a better job avoiding that situation and thus have more agency over my own life.

The problem with discussions of free will is that they tend to be riddled with ambiguous if not outright incoherent understandings of what we're even talking about. A concept that's often bandied about is "the ability to have done otherwise". Now, to me, it's pretty obvious that I do have the ability to do otherwise. Instead of typing at my computer right now, I could pick it up and throw it out the window. There is no force external to me that's preventing me from doing that. But I don't want to do it, and I have specific reasons for not wanting to do it. These reasons, taken together, determine my choice not to throw my computer out the window, but they don't take away my ability to do so. For some reason, proponents of libertarian free will disagree with this - they think I'm not truly free to throw my computer out the window if I have deterministic reasons not to want to do it.

The root of the problem, to the extent I understand it, seems to be that "the ability to have done otherwise" is construed as a metaphysical concept. That's where we get to the problem of modal logic. For some bizarre reason a lot of philosophers seem drawn to the idea that modal concepts (possibility, necessity, impossibility and contingency) are fundamental metaphysical entities. I never understood the appeal of these views, as I always saw these concepts as being easily reducible to easier-to-grasp concepts of uncertainty and counterfactuality. They also lead to some embarrassingly bad lines of thinking, such as Gödel's attempt to resurrect the beaten-down corpse of the Ontological argument (I'm sure you'll get a kick out of that given your religious views).

Anyway, if you take possibility to be a fundamental metaphysical category, then "the ability to have done otherwise" seems to mean not only that you're physically capable of another course of action, but that you're capable of wanting it irrespective of all the reasons you might have not to want it. So I'm only free to throw my computer out the window if there exists a possible world where all the other facts are the same but somehow I did in fact throw my computer out the window. To me, this is patently ridiculous. We'd have to imagine that somehow all "free" beings are prime movers, even though all evidence points to us being as subject to the laws of causality as everything else in the universe. I guess a lot of people feel like the kind of free will I subscribe to is not true free will? To me, it's the only definition of free will that makes any sense, and libertarian free will advocates are only making hard determinism more plausible by holding to an impossible standard.

 2 
 on: Today at 07:46:36 AM 
Started by GregTheGreat657 - Last post by SWE
This describes a bill that failed to pass and was criticized by contemporaries as "revolting." Sounds like decent evidence that at the time of the founding, this would have been considered cruel and unusual punishment

 3 
 on: Today at 07:40:45 AM 
Started by Donald Trump’s Toupée - Last post by Dan the Roman
I think there will be shy Biden supporters insofar as the calculation has shifted. As late as 2020 it was possible to believe a Post-Trump GOP would repudiate him, and after the midterms it might be neutral. That is no longer the case. A Post-Trump GOP may be glad to be rid of the man, but will view his presidency as a martyrdom for decades.

What this means is anyone who does not want to be a Democrat by default cannot be too loudly anti-Trump in 2024. They can not vote for him in the privacy of the voting booth. They can express fears he may be a liability. They can even suggest he has brought many of his problems on himself. They cannot get go around arguing in favor of Joe Biden, or going after people who defend Trump.

Which means by default the social Overton window has shifted. Anyone who thinks they may ever need to be a Republican or have good relations with Republicans in the next decade is not going to go around calling Trump supporters Nazis or racists.

 4 
 on: Today at 07:40:35 AM 
Started by I spent the winter writing songs about getting better - Last post by Inmate Trump
She was a traitor and her foolishness was weaponized by Donald Trump.

But I don’t like that her gravesite was vandalized. That’s also despicable but not equally so. She should still be allowed to rest in peace.
This isn't her gravesite. She was cremated and buried at sea


Oh okay. Well then have at it.

Traitors shouldn't have memorials.

 5 
 on: Today at 07:36:09 AM 
Started by Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon - Last post by Blair
object to final vote

 6 
 on: Today at 07:35:28 AM 
Started by Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon - Last post by Blair
aye

 7 
 on: Today at 07:35:09 AM 
Started by Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon - Last post by Blair
Aye

 8 
 on: Today at 07:34:51 AM 
Started by I spent the winter writing songs about getting better - Last post by SWE
She was a traitor and her foolishness was weaponized by Donald Trump.

But I don’t like that her gravesite was vandalized. That’s also despicable but not equally so. She should still be allowed to rest in peace.
This isn't her gravesite. She was cremated and buried at sea

 9 
 on: Today at 07:31:19 AM 
Started by Mike88 - Last post by parochial boy
Phuthaditjhaba – (and all of old QwaQwa homeland) the city, largely coterminous with the former homeland is emblematic of the homeland “resettlement” areas/dumping grounds that were created by the Aparthrid government. That is black baSotho people were deported en masse from their previous homes sharecropping or working on what own farmed to what is now a grotesque urban sprawl in an otherwise remote area. A city built from the ground with zero jobs, resources or infrastructure. The former QwaQwa homelans is only 600 sq km but its population increased from 150k to 550k in a span of just 10 years. All of which makes it a particularly poignant example of the crimes of apartheid and resultant social problems, a population of people utterly marginalized by having been removed from all economic opportunities as well as all of their previously existing social and support structures to waste away in poverty and unemployment, and also a reminder of why the Land question is so relevant to the country today. Phuthaditjhaba is usually an ANC heartland but local issues (including the Magashule) led to a local party scoring huge in 2021 municipals, it will be interesting to see if the ANC manages to recover this lost support.
Looks like the DA have made some real inroads here in this poor, black area.

With 100% VDs reporting, Maluti-a-Phofung Municipality (Phuthaditjhaba)
ANC 52.4% (-14.1)
DA 18.6% (+8.5)
EFF 12.5% (-1.4)
MK 5.0% (new)



That's interesting, not what I would have expected but not surprising it (giving myself a pat on the back for highlighting it haha). Probably the EFF should be asking themselves some real questions if this is the kind of place they were actually going backwards in.

I've been gazing at the results from some of the other former homelands to try and see if there are any consistent patterns (not exact numbers because they're multiple municipalities and I'm too lazy to do the maths), but:

KwaZulu - generally the IFP actually gaining ground, and the MK party making far (far) fewer inroads than in the rest of KZN or other Zulu areas outside the provinces. Really raises some interesting observations about who Zuma's party appealed to precisely. The answer being rather more compliacted than just "Zulus and let's leave it at that".

Transkei and Ciskei - The former Xhosa homelands where the dissapearance of COPE and UDM would have made the ANC feel optimistic. The ANC dropped a bit in the end, but the gains went in a few directions (UDM actually doing better than thought), but with the EFF generally being the main beneficiaries (+2% in the municipality around Mthatha). The DA dropped sightly.

Limpopo - home to the former Pedi, Venda and Tsonga homelands. For the sake of sanity as two thirds of the province was tribal land, it was extremely stable with very few swings. In all three the ANC drops slightly, but this doesn't seem to go anywhere in particular

Bophthatswana - The former Tswana homeland, generally stable. ANC lose a bit and the EFF lose more. This doesn't go anywhere in particular but the main beneficiaries seem to be ActionSA. err, let's not look to hard into why that is.

KwaNdebele - has a very similar story to QwaQwa with the added factor of being a sort of distant urban fringe to Pretoria. The ANC lost 17%, about half of this to the MK Party and most of the rest to the EFF. Even if the DA also gained slightly

KwaNgwane - another one like QwaQwa with sprawling urban areas created from nothing for the Swazi ethnic group. Weirdly the MK Party did very here, like double figures, even getting above 20% in some parts. Which must be fairly unique for a non-Zulu area. The EFF also made solid gains, seemingly around 5% which logically means that the ANC took an absolute pasting (it was at close to 90% last time, often in the 60s this time)

 10 
 on: Today at 07:30:56 AM 
Started by America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS - Last post by Thank you for being a friend...
The election of Sarah McBride in the US House seat in Delaware- may she win the primary and proceed to become a strong voice on Capitol Hill for America's trans population for many years to come.

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