Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Geoffrey Howe]

David Mundell [former Scottish Secretary] accepts the SNP are going to win and he anticipates they will have a majority, as they will pick up some list seats.

Does he mean on their own? I thought that was more or less out of the question after Dumbarton (unless they win Aberdeen West).

That's what I thought, so I was a bit confused.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Encouraging result for the unionists in Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

It feels like the few Green constituency candidates are possibly drawing more of their support from 2016 Labour voters than I would have guessed.

[jeron]

It feels like the few Green constituency candidates are possibly drawing more of their support from 2016 Labour voters than I would have guessed.

That does seem to be the case. In Glasgow Provan the Green candidate got 7.9%, Labour are down 5.8%. In Inverness and nairn: Greens 5.8%, Labour down 5.8%. Aberdeen central: Greens 6.6%, Labour down 7.4%

[IceAgeComing]

Dunno if you can really call 7% a 'decent Lib Dem vote' in the North East of Scotland; that's almost certainly their floor.

That doesn't explain why the SNP had an almost 10% increase compared to the special election though, and since that special election Wishart is the incumbent. I think it could be related to Brexit. the fishing industries have been particularly hard hit by brexit. (Shetland has a large fishing industry). Those people may be in favour of rejoining the EU and the easiest way to achieve that could be an independent Scotland which joins the EU. The LibDems do not support another independence referendum so that could be an explanation which is related to dissatisfaction over brexit

An Independent stood in the by-election and got 11% of the vote and didn't stand this time; and the bulk of their votes (plus I suspect the 1.6% that went for the Greens in the by-election) clearly went to the SNP.  Every party had an increase in vote share from the by-election because of the fall in the number of candidates.

That is still no answer to my question whether the SNP overperformance could be due to problems with Brexit.... And apparently SNP beat LibDems on the list vote, which is the first time the LibDems did not win Shetland since 1950!

The SNP almost certainly won Shetland in 2015 (the O+S result was close and Danus Skene was from Shetland and that’s where the SNP did best because as a seat it’s one where personalities and candidates matter especially) so it’s not some unprecedented thing.

Your premise seems inherently faulty: fishing communities were typically the biggest base of Leave support in Scotland and indeed the only places that voted leave were fishing areas so this idea that a vote would be swung by this group of pro-rejoin fishermen is silly.  Shetland also isn’t exactly a place where Independence is popular - it’s identity is distinct and a lot of the residents see themselves as Shetlanders first then Scots; and the whole Crown Dependency push post-independence isn’t some niche thing.  The two fundamental factors are that Independent candidate and the pandemic which made Sturgeon more popular and clearly, as in the vast majority of elections in the last year including the ones in the other parts of the UK, acted to help incumbent governments and considering that Shetland was almost always in looser restrictions than Scotland as a whole it may well be especially the case up there.  Brexit as an issue makes little sense in a Lib Dem vs SNP fight anyway.

[Oryxslayer]

Tories hold Galloway & West Dumfries off about half of the Llabour vote from 2016 consolidated behind their unionist ticket. SNP vote share also up.

[jeron]

Dunno if you can really call 7% a 'decent Lib Dem vote' in the North East of Scotland; that's almost certainly their floor.

That doesn't explain why the SNP had an almost 10% increase compared to the special election though, and since that special election Wishart is the incumbent. I think it could be related to Brexit. the fishing industries have been particularly hard hit by brexit. (Shetland has a large fishing industry). Those people may be in favour of rejoining the EU and the easiest way to achieve that could be an independent Scotland which joins the EU. The LibDems do not support another independence referendum so that could be an explanation which is related to dissatisfaction over brexit

An Independent stood in the by-election and got 11% of the vote and didn't stand this time; and the bulk of their votes (plus I suspect the 1.6% that went for the Greens in the by-election) clearly went to the SNP.  Every party had an increase in vote share from the by-election because of the fall in the number of candidates.

That is still no answer to my question whether the SNP overperformance could be due to problems with Brexit.... And apparently SNP beat LibDems on the list vote, which is the first time the LibDems did not win Shetland since 1950!

The SNP almost certainly won Shetland in 2015 (the O+S result was close and Danus Skene was from Shetland and that’s where the SNP did best because as a seat it’s one where personalities and candidates matter especially) so it’s not some unprecedented thing.

Your premise seems inherently faulty: fishing communities were typically the biggest base of Leave support in Scotland and indeed the only places that voted leave were fishing areas so this idea that a vote would be swung by this group of pro-rejoin fishermen is silly.  Shetland also isn’t exactly a place where Independence is popular - it’s identity is distinct and a lot of the residents see themselves as Shetlanders first then Scots; and the whole Crown Dependency push post-independence isn’t some niche thing.  The two fundamental factors are that Independent candidate and the pandemic which made Sturgeon more popular and clearly, as in the vast majority of elections in the last year including the ones in the other parts of the UK, acted to help incumbent governments and considering that Shetland was almost always in looser restrictions than Scotland as a whole it may well be especially the case up there.  Brexit as an issue makes little sense in a Lib Dem vs SNP fight anyway.

I simply asked a question!
The argument of the indepent makes no sense, because it doesn't explain (or in your words is silly) the huge swing to SNP compared to the last election. The Libdem list vote went down by 10% compared to 2016. Clearly the explanation for that cannot be found in an independent candidate during a special election or a new MP. Somehow the SNP is more popular in Shetland or the Libdems less popular.
As to your argument that independence isnt popular on Shetland, 41.9% just voted for the pro independent SNP candidate!!!

[Geoffrey Howe]

8 constituency seats left of which the SNP will most likely win 7, maybe 6 if Pentlands flips. Add to that 3 from the South Scotland list and 1 from Highlands and Islands and you have a majority of 2 for the SNP. Now given their win in Ayr they might lose a list seat in South Scotland; add to that a loss in Pentlands and you’re one short of a majority. But I can’t see how there won’t be nationalist majority with the Greens winning list seats.

Edit: I’m doing something wrong here. See John Curtice:

‘The Conservative success in [Aberdeenshire West] means that there is now no conceivable path to the SNP securing 65 seats.

At most they could now win 64 by picking up list seats in the Highlands and the South of Scotland.’

[beesley]

8 constituency seats left of which the SNP will most likely win 7, maybe 6 if Pentlands flips. Add to that 3 from the South Scotland list and 1 from Highlands and Islands and you have a majority of 2 for the SNP. Now given their win in Ayr they might lose a list seat in South Scotland; add to that a loss in Pentlands and you’re one short of a majority. But I can’t see how there won’t be nationalist majority with the Greens winning list seats.

East Lothian despite the name is also in South Scotland btw. Be interesting to see whether those West rumours are true.

[Geoffrey Howe]

8 constituency seats left of which the SNP will most likely win 7, maybe 6 if Pentlands flips. Add to that 3 from the South Scotland list and 1 from Highlands and Islands and you have a majority of 2 for the SNP. Now given their win in Ayr they might lose a list seat in South Scotland; add to that a loss in Pentlands and you’re one short of a majority. But I can’t see how there won’t be nationalist majority with the Greens winning list seats.

East Lothian despite the name is also in South Scotland btw. Be interesting to see whether those West rumours are true.

Oh yes I forgot that. So a loss of 2 for SNP on the list? What are the west rumours?

[Oryxslayer]

Tories hold Aberdeenshire West.

BBC now projects SNP will be two short of a majority, no change from 2016.

[beesley]

8 constituency seats left of which the SNP will most likely win 7, maybe 6 if Pentlands flips. Add to that 3 from the South Scotland list and 1 from Highlands and Islands and you have a majority of 2 for the SNP. Now given their win in Ayr they might lose a list seat in South Scotland; add to that a loss in Pentlands and you’re one short of a majority. But I can’t see how there won’t be nationalist majority with the Greens winning list seats.

East Lothian despite the name is also in South Scotland btw. Be interesting to see whether those West rumours are true.

Oh yes I forgot that. So a loss of 2 for SNP on the list? What are the west rumours?

Most people presumed the SNP vote wouldn't be strong enough for a list seat in West especially if they gained Eastwood but it's apparently close between them and the Tories for the final seat. Would be quite a challenge though still.

In South yes, basically guaranteed a loss of one and potentially a loss of two - it could be the Greens who take the final seat.

[beesley]

8 constituency seats left of which the SNP will most likely win 7, maybe 6 if Pentlands flips. Add to that 3 from the South Scotland list and 1 from Highlands and Islands and you have a majority of 2 for the SNP. Now given their win in Ayr they might lose a list seat in South Scotland; add to that a loss in Pentlands and you’re one short of a majority. But I can’t see how there won’t be nationalist majority with the Greens winning list seats.

East Lothian despite the name is also in South Scotland btw. Be interesting to see whether those West rumours are true.

Oh yes I forgot that. So a loss of 2 for SNP on the list? What are the west rumours?

Most people presumed the SNP vote wouldn't be strong enough for a list seat in West especially if they gained Eastwood but it's apparently close between them and the Tories for the final seat. Would be quite a challenge though still.

In South yes, basically guaranteed a loss of one and potentially a loss of two - it could be the Greens who take the final seat.

Will the LDs get a list seat in NE? Their tactical voting for Tories might not hold up on the list.

On a knife edge, it would seem. Their vote declined in Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Aberdeenshire East, Angus North and Mearns and Aberdeen Central but went up in Dundee East. Greens up in all of these but still low in a few areas.

Thanks to ALBA the Tories actually won the list vote in Banffshire, not that that has any effect in itself.

[Geoffrey Howe]

8 constituency seats left of which the SNP will most likely win 7, maybe 6 if Pentlands flips. Add to that 3 from the South Scotland list and 1 from Highlands and Islands and you have a majority of 2 for the SNP. Now given their win in Ayr they might lose a list seat in South Scotland; add to that a loss in Pentlands and you’re one short of a majority. But I can’t see how there won’t be nationalist majority with the Greens winning list seats.

East Lothian despite the name is also in South Scotland btw. Be interesting to see whether those West rumours are true.

Oh yes I forgot that. So a loss of 2 for SNP on the list? What are the west rumours?

Most people presumed the SNP vote wouldn't be strong enough for a list seat in West especially if they gained Eastwood but it's apparently close between them and the Tories for the final seat. Would be quite a challenge though still.

In South yes, basically guaranteed a loss of one and potentially a loss of two - it could be the Greens who take the final seat.

Will the LDs get a list seat in NE? Their tactical voting for Tories might not hold up on the list.

On a knife edge, it would seem. Their vote declined in Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Aberdeenshire East, Angus North and Mearns and Aberdeen Central but went up in Dundee East. Greens up in all of these but still low in a few areas.

Thanks to ALBA the Tories actually won the list vote in Banffshire, not that that has any effect in itself.

BBC projects no LD list seats. Net +3 for the nationalists (Green gain 3).

[jaichind]

BBC projection of seats in Scottish parliament
SNP 63 (no change from 2016)
Con 31 (no change)
Lab 22 -2
Green 9 +3
Lib Dem 4 -1

So where does this leave SNP with their demand for a referendum ?

[Oryxslayer]

SNP hold Edinburgh Pentlands, no unionist consolidation. BBC projection is likely accurate.

[Geoffrey Howe]

No gains vis-à-vis the SNP for the Greens in Glasgow Kelvin.

[Tintrlvr]

Do the Greens not support a referendum? Otherwise it doesn't seem to matter much whether the SNP got a majority or not.

[beesley]

Do the Greens not support a referendum? Otherwise it doesn't seem to matter much whether the SNP got a majority or not.

They do, and they support independence as well just to be clear.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Do the Greens not support a referendum? Otherwise it doesn't seem to matter much whether the SNP got a majority or not.

They do, and they support independence as well just to be clear.

So if the BBC projection holds, a majority of 5 for independence/referendum?

[jeron]

Do the Greens not support a referendum? Otherwise it doesn't seem to matter much whether the SNP got a majority or not.

They do, and they support independence as well just to be clear.

So if the BBC projection holds, a majority of 5 for independence/referendum?

Majority of nine: 69 - 60.

What prediction is that? According to the BBC it would be
72 (SNP 63 +Greens 9) - 57 (31 Con + 22 Lab + 4 Lib), which is a majority of 15

[beesley]

Do the Greens not support a referendum? Otherwise it doesn't seem to matter much whether the SNP got a majority or not.

They do, and they support independence as well just to be clear.

So if the BBC projection holds, a majority of 5 for independence/referendum?

Majority of nine: 69 - 60.

What prediction is that? According to the BBC it would be
72 (SNP 63 +Greens 9) - 57 (31 Con + 22 Lab + 4 Lib), which is a majority of 15

You would be correct - my mistake.

[Storr]

BBC projection of seats in Scottish parliament
SNP 63 (no change from 2016)
Con 31 (no change)
Lab 22 -2
Green 9 +3
Lib Dem 4 -1

So where does this leave SNP with their demand for a referendum ?

SNP now at 61 seats. The only other electoral region where the SNP won list seats in 2016 was South Scotland.
Edit: South Scotland is also where the SNP gained two of their three constituency (FPTP) seat flips in Ayr and East Lothian. I don't know how much these wins will affect the three S. Scotland list seats won in 2016. But based on the BBC projecting 63 SNP seats in total, I assume those flips will have some sort of an impact.

"We were expecting the Conservatives to get four list seats, Labour one, Green one and the SNP one.

The result in the Highlands is exactly in line with our prediction."

Edit #2 because long URLs are long, unwieldy, and I decided to be lazy when first making this post by not using a URL shortener:
www.tinyurl.com/5d6nnz4v

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1391070019182809094?s=20

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1391069430592024580?s=20

[afleitch]

Labour's self sacrifice for the Tories in Scotland continues apace.