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Wabash
The Northern half of what we call Indiana. This is historically the more Democratic part of the state, thanks in large part to its encompassing Gary and other Chicago suburbs on its Northwestern corner. At the same time, "more Democratic" only means so much in a very Republican part of the country: WB's voting record is still the same as IRL IN: it only voted Democrat twice, in 1964 for LBJ and in 2008 for Obama. Its PVI was consistently to the right of the country throughout the period (at time by as little as 3-4 points, but more often by 10 points or more). And worst of all trends have been particularly brutal for Democrats there in the last two cycles. WB's swing-state status was short-lived, and instead it is now headed to the Safe R column for the foreseeable future.
Capital: I guess South Bend seems to work best, though it's a little further North than I'd prefer. I'm sure Mayor Pete would appreciate the extra attention of presiding over a state capital.
House Seats (1963): 9
House Seats (2013): 7
VAP Demographics (2010): 82% White
PVI 2008: R+4
PVI 2012: R+11
PVI 2016: R+20
PVI 2020: R+21
Congressional Representation: WB elected its Senators last in 2018 and 2020. Donnelly lost by 5 points in 2018, so unless he miraculously gets a significantly worse opponent he's probably toast, and two Republican Senators are in the bag. House-wise, Republicans concede Dems a seat around Gary and call it a day.
Local Government: Not much to see here either. Democrats might have come close in some governors' races but especially if you keep holding them in Presidential years it's going to be very hard for them to actually win. The legislature has pretty comfortable GOP majorities.
Indiana
Conversely, this is the Southern and typically more Republican part of the state. Even McCain managed to stay just barely ahead there in 2008, winning by half a point. Like Wabash, it has since swung back to the right hard, though not quite as hard as Wabash. In 2020, for the first time, it was actually ever so slightly more Dem-friendly. While most of the state, especially its Southernmost part, has trended significantly to the right, Indianapolis and its suburbs seem to have provided somewhat of a counterweight to keep Democrats afloat. Of course this can only go so far, as the state remains solidly Republican.
Capital: It has to be Indianapolis. Come on.
House Seats (1963): 11
House Seats (2013): 10
VAP Demographics (2010): 86% White
PVI 2008: R+8
PVI 2012: R+16
PVI 2016: R+22
PVI 2020: R+20
Congressional Representation: Two Republican Senators and at least 8 Republican Representatives are pretty much certain. Republicans have to concede a seat in Indianapolis, and barring a particularly devious gerrymander there would probably have be another fairly swingy one in Marion County.
Local Government: Once again, not much to see here. Republican governor and Republican legislative supermajorities.
As far as close elections go, the only real option we have to go by is 2008. We probably won't see Dems do that well in Wabash or Indiana anytime soon...
Obama won WB by 3.3 points and lost IN by 0.6, a historically strong performance in both states. Up North, he racked up huge margins in the Chicago suburbs along the Lake, including but not limited to Gary. He also won St. Joseph (home to South Bend) and Tippecanoe (home of Lafayette) county. McCain unsurprisingly won most of the less densely populated counties, but also racked up strong results in and around the other decently-sized city in the state, Fort Wayne. Still, it's notable that he rarely got over 60% anywhere. Had he racked up landslides in more rural counties, he likely could have overcome Obama's urban advantage - indeed, that seems to have been exactly what happened further South. Despite winning more counties in IN, including Indianapolis' quite populous Marion County, Obama couldn't quite make it down there. McCain's strong performance in the ring of suburban counties surrounding it, one of his best regions in the entire Midwest, was decisive here, as was Obama's modest performance in the state's far South compared to predecessors like Bill Clinton. Of course, any Democratic strength in the region was about to be wiped out just 8 years later...
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