Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Should Biden bend over on this one as the lesser evil?

No. The Saudi-caused humanitarian crisis in Yemen is still way worse than the Russian-caused one in Ukraine and will probably continue to be so through several more rounds of potential escalation of the latter conflict.

It isn’t, but that is only because Ukraine has a bigger population.

The most sensible option would be to accept higher oil prices, but if the US felt compelled to lower them in some way (besides Venezuela), the least insane remaining option would be some combination of mending relations with Iran and threatening the Saudis with this prospect.

I could go on about how Western support of Saudi Arabia over Iran has had disastrous consequences for the Middle East, but the simple version of this is that Iran needs to ramp up production to regain market share, which would mean a lot of cheap oil for a period after sanctions were eased. Of course, this would be bad for the environment, but the Biden admin probably isn’t going to prioritise that in any case.

[Torie]

In addition to tough hypotheticals that are getting all too close to reality on no fly zones, we have another one lurking out there:

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis
Persian Gulf monarchies have signaled they won’t help ease surging oil prices unless Washington supports them in Yemen, elsewhere

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-emirati-leaders-decline-calls-with-biden-during-ukraine-crisis-11646779430

Should Biden bend over on this one as the lesser evil?

no, he shouldn't.  But since he is the human manifestation of the "lesser evil," he probably will.


<see, I can use big words too sir!  Never mind that I got the red squiggly line underneath >

You go for the greater evil? I guess you mean that Biden rationalizes going for the greater evil by claiming it is the lesser evil, of that his judgement is so poor that he cannot properly calibrate, I get it. I assume your rationale has something to do with time horizons or economics or some other wonky stuff that you ponder in the secure location in which you work.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Should Biden bend over on this one as the lesser evil?

No. The Saudi-caused humanitarian crisis in Yemen is still way worse than the Russian-caused one in Ukraine and will probably continue to be so through several more rounds of potential escalation of the latter conflict.

But unironically, Guess who's buddies with Saudi Arabia ? Russia, people.


I wonder why we're still friends with Saudi Arabia, because it's obvious that they have dangerous ties with Russia and other hostile states. It's the oil isn't it ?

Of course it's the oil, plus sheer Cold War inertia from when the overall American Middle East policy was to prop up despotic monarchies against nominally-socialist authoritarian republics. What else would it be?

But they're all the freaking same. Anti Democratic. No Freedoms.

Not really : the Shah was way better than the Ayotallah , the King was better than whoever came next in Afghanistan and Suddam was a greater evil to the Saudis in the Gulf War(given he wanted to invade them too).

There were others that would have gone better if we left them alone though. Sometimes it was better to intervene but other times it’s not. I hope that this crisis furthers the conditioning of globalization and economic relationships on human rights. Couch than that terms, I can almost tolerate a “drill baby drill” policy on energy… to a point.

Yah I agree and with Iran it would have been better if we didn’t remove Mosaddegh

[Illiniwek]

Should Biden bend over on this one as the lesser evil?

No. The Saudi-caused humanitarian crisis in Yemen is still way worse than the Russian-caused one in Ukraine and will probably continue to be so through several more rounds of potential escalation of the latter conflict.

But unironically, Guess who's buddies with Saudi Arabia ? Russia, people.


I wonder why we're still friends with Saudi Arabia, because it's obvious that they have dangerous ties with Russia and other hostile states. It's the oil isn't it ?

Of course it's the oil, plus sheer Cold War inertia from when the overall American Middle East policy was to prop up despotic monarchies against nominally-socialist authoritarian republics. What else would it be?

But they're all the freaking same. Anti Democratic. No Freedoms.

Not really : the Shah was way better than the Ayotallah , the King was better than whoever came next in Afghanistan and Suddam was a greater evil to the Saudis in the Gulf War(given he wanted to invade them too).

There were others that would have gone better if we left them alone though. Sometimes it was better to intervene but other times it’s not. I hope that this crisis furthers the conditioning of globalization and economic relationships on human rights. Couch than that terms, I can almost tolerate a “drill baby drill” policy on energy… to a point.

Yah I agree and with Iran it would have been better if we didn’t remove Mosaddegh

History may have been drastically better if we didn’t. Sigh….

[dead0man]

In addition to tough hypotheticals that are getting all too close to reality on no fly zones, we have another one lurking out there:

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis
Persian Gulf monarchies have signaled they won’t help ease surging oil prices unless Washington supports them in Yemen, elsewhere

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-emirati-leaders-decline-calls-with-biden-during-ukraine-crisis-11646779430

Should Biden bend over on this one as the lesser evil?

no, he shouldn't.  But since he is the human manifestation of the "lesser evil," he probably will.


<see, I can use big words too sir!  Never mind that I got the red squiggly line underneath >

You go for the greater evil? I guess you mean that Biden rationalizes going for the greater evil by claiming it is the lesser evil, of that his judgement is so poor that he cannot properly calibrate, I get it. I assume your rationale has something to do with time horizons or economics or some other wonky stuff that you ponder in the secure location in which you work.

I wasn't thinking that deeply about it.  I have no idea what Biden will do.  I hope he tells the Saudis to go pound sand, but I always hope Presidents do that.

[Torie]

In addition to tough hypotheticals that are getting all too close to reality on no fly zones, we have another one lurking out there:

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis
Persian Gulf monarchies have signaled they won’t help ease surging oil prices unless Washington supports them in Yemen, elsewhere

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-emirati-leaders-decline-calls-with-biden-during-ukraine-crisis-11646779430

Should Biden bend over on this one as the lesser evil?

No. They'll increase production on their own as prices surge to maintain market share and cash in; political pressure is not relevant. They're not going to cut off their noses to spite Biden, so call their bluff.

That actually is exactly where my mind is going. They are just too greedy to pass this up, aren't they? They really are willing to forego all that dough to prop up Putin? Have they really gone that far down into Dante's inferno and the axis of evil? Stay tuned.

[Storr]

The good news (news that I never, ever expected to read in the NYT when Russia unleashed the dogs of war):




And in addition to Putin having no hesitancy to target civilians, the bad news:



“Brutal tactics.” Is there some point when the news and images of the slaughter of civilians deemed in the way or expendable pawns to Putin, becomes just too much to bear for the Western mind to stomach? Is there any red line out there at all as to that issue?

Yeah. If we are all the sudden not seeing thousands of civil casualties but tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties, the responsible thing to do would at least create a no-fly zone to protect evacuations.

Well, the Russians bombed a maternity/children's hospital in Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/ua_parliament/status/1501581744251748358?s=20&t=Bty9ZntC...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1501578493079003136?s=20&t=vBypPx9VCTz...

[lfromnj]

In addition to tough hypotheticals that are getting all too close to reality on no fly zones, we have another one lurking out there:

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis
Persian Gulf monarchies have signaled they won’t help ease surging oil prices unless Washington supports them in Yemen, elsewhere

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-emirati-leaders-decline-calls-with-biden-during-ukraine-crisis-11646779430

Should Biden bend over on this one as the lesser evil?

no, he shouldn't.  But since he is the human manifestation of the "lesser evil," he probably will.


<see, I can use big words too sir!  Never mind that I got the red squiggly line underneath >

You go for the greater evil? I guess you mean that Biden rationalizes going for the greater evil by claiming it is the lesser evil, of that his judgement is so poor that he cannot properly calibrate, I get it. I assume your rationale has something to do with time horizons or economics or some other wonky stuff that you ponder in the secure location in which you work.

I wasn't thinking that deeply about it.  I have no idea what Biden will do.  I hope he tells the Saudis to go pound sand, but I always hope Presidents do that.

They will be pending sand after the  American oil producer share explodes .

[GeneralMacArthur]

I guess Russia is hoping no one that can read Russian will fact check their English language government twitter accounts?

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1501525178051928065?s=20&t=T6jPPhrr...

Major throwback to how they handled the leaks of the Podesta/Clinton e-mails.  Russia (oh, sorry, "WikiLeaks") would just blatantly lie about what was in the documents, and it would seem authoritative and believable because they were claiming to source it to the e-mails.  And also because they took advantage of WikiLeaks' pre-existing credibility, and had a massive network of bots to reiterate these lies and create the impression of social proof.

[It’s so Joever]

Seeing on Twitter that Skadovsk has been captured by the Russians. Normally I doom, but Skadovsk is pretty insignificant, I doubt there are any troops there at this point and it’s been cut off from the rest of Ukraine for a while now.

[Former President tack50]

The reality is that no state that Russia sets up in the east of Ukraine will be accepted as a state by the vast majority of UN states (see Crimea and the Donbas). A puppet regime in the west/Kyiv will not be accepted by the majority of UN states if there is a functional Ukrainian government in exile and continued resistance within Ukraine itself.

To be fair, wouldn't time (eventually) heal all wounds and what not? Perhaps what might be the absolute best case scenario for Russia is something like the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, where they set up a separatist puppet republic in half of the country with no recognition (except for Turkey itself). And of course, Turkey these days is a relatively standard country (and was even more so before Erdogan went authoritarian)

If you want to keep going with the analogy, the internationally recognized half of Cyprus even went on to eventually join the EU!

Admittedy this is the absolute best case scenario for Russia, which is very unlikely. Also I don't think Eastern Ukranians support Russia anywhere close to the rates that Turkish Cypriots would have supported the Turkish invasion.

[Tintrlvr]

The reality is that no state that Russia sets up in the east of Ukraine will be accepted as a state by the vast majority of UN states (see Crimea and the Donbas). A puppet regime in the west/Kyiv will not be accepted by the majority of UN states if there is a functional Ukrainian government in exile and continued resistance within Ukraine itself.

To be fair, wouldn't time (eventually) heal all wounds and what not? Perhaps what might be the absolute best case scenario for Russia is something like the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, where they set up a separatist puppet republic in half of the country with no recognition (except for Turkey itself). And of course, Turkey these days is a relatively standard country (and was even more so before Erdogan went authoritarian)

If you want to keep going with the analogy, the internationally recognized half of Cyprus even went on to eventually join the EU!

Admittedy this is the absolute best case scenario for Russia, which is very unlikely. Also I don't think Eastern Ukranians support Russia anywhere close to the rates that Turkish Cypriots would have supported the Turkish invasion.

Are the Russians interested in resettling eastern Ukraine with Russians? Because it's clear that they would have very little support from the current residents, even those who speak Russian primarily. That contrasts with the Cyprus situation where most Turkish Cypriots supported the invasion.

[Torie]

The reality is that no state that Russia sets up in the east of Ukraine will be accepted as a state by the vast majority of UN states (see Crimea and the Donbas). A puppet regime in the west/Kyiv will not be accepted by the majority of UN states if there is a functional Ukrainian government in exile and continued resistance within Ukraine itself.

To be fair, wouldn't time (eventually) heal all wounds and what not? Perhaps what might be the absolute best case scenario for Russia is something like the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, where they set up a separatist puppet republic in half of the country with no recognition (except for Turkey itself). And of course, Turkey these days is a relatively standard country (and was even more so before Erdogan went authoritarian)

If you want to keep going with the analogy, the internationally recognized half of Cyprus even went on to eventually join the EU!

Admittedy this is the absolute best case scenario for Russia, which is very unlikely. Also I don't think Eastern Ukranians support Russia anywhere close to the rates that Turkish Cypriots would have supported the Turkish invasion.

Yes, well, one way out would have been a referendum in the Russian speaking areas as to what country they wanted to be a part of, as part of a package where Russia would accept the result as binding, and the balance joined NATO or whatever. But that ship sailed long ago. And now the reality is that some areas of Russia would vote in far greater numbers  to exit and join Ukraine, than the reverse in Ukraine. How would Crimea vote now in a free and fair election?

[Storr]

Absolutely incredible, the Ukrainians hit the 5 year old "stealth" Russian patrol boat Vasily Bykov with freaking unguided land based MLRS fire on the 7th (appreciate just how difficult it is to hit moving, floating targets at sea with "dumb" rockets from land) and the ship has reportedly sunk today:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1500759177454628864?s=20&t=GDam6C6o5...

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1501577874704379906?s=20&t=GDam6C6o5T...

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1501582493853569026?s=20&t=GDam6C6o5T...

[AndyHogan14]

The reality is that no state that Russia sets up in the east of Ukraine will be accepted as a state by the vast majority of UN states (see Crimea and the Donbas). A puppet regime in the west/Kyiv will not be accepted by the majority of UN states if there is a functional Ukrainian government in exile and continued resistance within Ukraine itself.

To be fair, wouldn't time (eventually) heal all wounds and what not? Perhaps what might be the absolute best case scenario for Russia is something like the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, where they set up a separatist puppet republic in half of the country with no recognition (except for Turkey itself). And of course, Turkey these days is a relatively standard country (and was even more so before Erdogan went authoritarian)

If you want to keep going with the analogy, the internationally recognized half of Cyprus even went on to eventually join the EU!

Admittedy this is the absolute best case scenario for Russia, which is very unlikely. Also I don't think Eastern Ukranians support Russia anywhere close to the rates that Turkish Cypriots would have supported the Turkish invasion.

Yes, well, one way out would have been a referendum in the Russian speaking areas as to what country they wanted to be a part of, as part of a package where Russia would accept the result as binding, and the balance joined NATO or whatever. But that ship sailed long ago. And now the reality is that some areas of Russia would vote in far greater numbers  to exit and join Ukraine, than the reverse in Ukraine. How would Crimea vote now in a free and fair election?

I feel like a free and fair referendum in Crimea back in 2014 would have been close to 50-50. No Ukrainians or Tatars were going to vote to join Russia and I assume ethnic Russians would be 70-30 in favor of secession. If a referendum were held today, it is hard to tell being that the ethnic Russians have been fed eight years of pro-Moscow propaganda and I am assuming many of the Ukrainians have fled. As far as the Tatars are concerned, I assume that they would vote in overwhelming numbers to return to Ukraine.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Absolutely based, the Ukrainians hit the 5 year old "stealth" Russian patrol boat Vasily Bykov with freaking unguided land based MLRS fire on the 7th (appreciate just how difficult it is to hit moving, floating targets at sea with "dumb" rockets from land) and the ship has reportedly sunk today:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1500759177454628864?s=20&t=GDam6C6o5...
https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1501577874704379906?s=20&t=GDam6C6o5T...
https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1501582493853569026?s=20&t=GDam6C6o5T...

It was hit (and badly enough for the damage to be visible), but there’s no independent confirmation that it sunk.

[Torie]

Absolutely based, the Ukrainians hit the 5 year old "stealth" Russian patrol boat Vasily Bykov with freaking unguided land based MLRS fire on the 7th (appreciate just how difficult it is to hit moving, floating targets at sea with "dumb" rockets from land) and the ship has reportedly sunk today:

"As the #Odesa-based newspaper Dumskaya reported, it was a specially designed secret operation of the Ukraine Navy. Two #Ukrainian speedboats provoked the Russian boat to follow them, so it sailed right into the prepared area of artillery fire and was successfully destroyed."

This is a scene right out of some action flick where you suspend your disbelief.

[BlueSwan]

Yes, well, one way out would have been a referendum in the Russian speaking areas as to what country they wanted to be a part of, as part of a package where Russia would accept the result as binding, and the balance joined NATO or whatever. But that ship sailed long ago. And now the reality is that some areas of Russia would vote in far greater numbers  to exit and join Ukraine, than the reverse in Ukraine. How would Crimea vote now in a free and fair election?

Referendums in each major Ukrainian province overseen by UN officials is probably something that we should have pushed for long ago. It would have been a win-win situation. Russia would have probably gained some land. The rest of Ukraine would have gotten rid of the most Russian-leaning part of the population and could more firmly move in a western direction.

[jaichind]

A Bloomberg economic analysis shows that Russian inflation surged 2.2% in just the week after the war started.  It expects inflation to peak in July at 19%.  For 2022 various investment banks estimate overall Russian inflation to be anywhere from 13% to 22%.  Still with reference interest rates at 20% the lower middle class savings are mostly protected with the upper class getting hit hard since the produces they buy are much more import intensive and the inflation they are facing must be far worse than 20%.

[Tintrlvr]

Yes, well, one way out would have been a referendum in the Russian speaking areas as to what country they wanted to be a part of, as part of a package where Russia would accept the result as binding, and the balance joined NATO or whatever. But that ship sailed long ago. And now the reality is that some areas of Russia would vote in far greater numbers  to exit and join Ukraine, than the reverse in Ukraine. How would Crimea vote now in a free and fair election?

Referendums in each major Ukrainian province overseen by UN officials is probably something that we should have pushed for long ago. It would have been a win-win situation. Russia would have probably gained some land. The rest of Ukraine would have gotten rid of the most Russian-leaning part of the population and could more firmly move in a western direction.

Polling pre-2014 suggested that only Crimea would have actually voted to secede and join Russia, narrowly, but there would have been a lot of close results (including in the Donbass) that probably would have led to tensions and accusations of fraud and might well have precipitated war anyway.

[Torie]

A Bloomberg economic analysis shows that Russian inflation surged 2.2% in just the week after the war started.  It expects inflation to peak in July at 19%.  For 2022 various investment banks estimate overall Russian inflation to be anywhere from 13% to 22%.  Still with reference interest rates at 20% the lower middle class savings are mostly protected with the upper class getting hit hard since the produces they buy are much more import intensive and the inflation they are facing must be far worse than 20%.

You need to define your rates as to whether they are monthly or annualized. I assume that you know what I am talking about.

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1501512022470635521

American defense officials say, reported on CNN's live feed, that Russia still has 90% of its combat power ready for use, that doesn't sound like "losing significant equipment" or "running out of available troops" to me. I understand this forum is unabashedly cheerleading for Ukraine but believing in obvious pro-Ukrainian propaganda and exaggerated reports is a sure way to be disappointed when reality hits.

Russia has about “90% of their available combat power still ready for their use” in Ukraine, a senior US defense official told reporters on Wednesday.

The US assesses Russia no longer has “several hundred vehicles of different stripes and sizes” available to them, but the US does not know if those vehicles were captured, destroyed or abandoned, the official added.  

CNN first reported Tuesday that the US estimated that as much as 8% to 10% of Russian military assets used in the invasion of Ukraine are now destroyed or inoperable, according to a US official familiar with the latest intelligence as of Tuesday.

The equipment lost includes tanks, aircraft, artillery and other military assets. That is close to double the losses that CNN reported last week when it was estimated Russia had lost 3% to 5% of its military assets.

[jaichind]

A Bloomberg economic analysis shows that Russian inflation surged 2.2% in just the week after the war started.  It expects inflation to peak in July at 19%.  For 2022 various investment banks estimate overall Russian inflation to be anywhere from 13% to 22%.  Still with reference interest rates at 20% the lower middle class savings are mostly protected with the upper class getting hit hard since the produces they buy are much more import intensive and the inflation they are facing must be far worse than 20%.

You need to define your rates as to whether they are monthly or annualized. I assume that you know what I am talking about.

Agreed.  The Bloomberg economic rate of 2.2% is not annualized. The Bloomberg economics peak of 19% was also not annualized.  But the various investment bank estimates are annualized and ergo comparible to reference interest rates.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Not sure if it's just me or not, but it's highly suspicious that Twitter is currently being swarmed by Iranian accounts posting whataboutism of the current conflict in Ukraine with the situation in Palestine and Yemen within the last 30 minutes.

[Torie]

A Bloomberg economic analysis shows that Russian inflation surged 2.2% in just the week after the war started.  It expects inflation to peak in July at 19%.  For 2022 various investment banks estimate overall Russian inflation to be anywhere from 13% to 22%.  Still with reference interest rates at 20% the lower middle class savings are mostly protected with the upper class getting hit hard since the produces they buy are much more import intensive and the inflation they are facing must be far worse than 20%.

You need to define your rates as to whether they are monthly or annualized. I assume that you know what I am talking about.

Agreed.  The Bloomberg economic rate of 2.2% is not annualized. The Bloomberg economics peak of 19% was also not annualized.  But the various investment bank estimates are annualized and ergo comparible to reference interest rates.

So now we know that having money in a Russian bank earning a 20% annualized interest rate has a negative real interest rate return of about 8% in one month not annualized. It seems like the net worth of most Russians is going to be wiped out.