2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Landslide Lyndon]

The DCCC sure tries to do their hardest to imitate the NRSC in incompetence and parody. Backing a deadbeat dad who periodically didn’t pay child support and pissing away millions in the process? I guess I shouldn’t be shocked after they blew over $10 million in GA-6 on a clown who didn’t live in the district.

Uhhh, it's not like there is another viable candidate against running against Ryan to support.
Bryce is the one who took the plunge, so if they want to pick up the district they have no choice but to support him.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Not directly relevant to congressional races but...

https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/977238455607578626

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Uh Oh!

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/977289060036182016

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https://twitter.com/ChrisCinciBiz/status/981144308949635073

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https://twitter.com/madlinbmek/status/981577670201810945

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In map form.

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I think it's time Comstock called it quits.

Virginia filing deadline passed. She goes nowhere.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Fundrasing for KS-02 has come out and holy sh*t:
Paul Davis (D): 338,000
Caryn Tyson (R): 41,000
Steve Watkins (R): 40,000
Steve Firzgerald (R): 25,000
Kevin Jones (R): 6,000

Are the Republicans in this race actively trying to scare off donors? Because that's the only explanation for these comically awful numbers. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Funny but not serious logic twist:

There have been 8 special elections for the House so far.

6: R Hold
1: D Gain
1: D Hold

This indicates a rate of 0% of Democratic seats flipping and 14% of Republican seats flipping

So lets just say that of the 194 seats Democrats won in 2016, all 194 stay Democratic.

And for every of the 241 seats Republicans won in 2016, 1 flips Democratic for every 6 that stay Republican.

This equates to 34 seats flipping Democratic and 207 seats staying Republican.

D+34 confirmed.

Democrats will take the House in 2018 by a 228 to 207 majority.

If it winds up with exactly that margin, which is not implausible, you'll look like a genius!

You can make a case that there'll be more flips because all the specials were in seats that were way more Republican than the median House seat.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL! What are they going to do? Hire more consultants?

The Republican establishment spent $150 million on Please Clap so he could finish 7th in Iowa or whatever. I'm quaking in my boots.

The democrats spent about a billion trying to elect a washed up, out of touch, career politician. Instead, they lost to a gaffe machine billionaire who never held elected office.

That proves their point, you know.

Their point was the GOP is bad at picking candidates, but it isn’t like Democrats are better.

Trying to cover your ass after you've been brutally owned.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1005062773607452672

WHY CA 50?

Dems got the more extreme of two nominees in a hard-right seat. Barring Vapedouchs scandals going to trial, or anything like that, Cook says it should be moved to safe R.

I was under the impression that people were complaining about Najjar being too moderate.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Beto, maybe smartly maybe not, has actively tried to push away national Super PAC help.

I'm pretty sure that he wants to keep national Democrats at arms length, like Doug Jones and Connor Lamb did.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1006956239878807553

Brutal for VA 2, 5, 7 & 10.

Idle threats. These people have convinced themselves that Democrats are worse than Pol Pot.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Sean T at RCP shifted only ONE race to the Democrats.

Man he's getting hackish

He is been hackish since the days when he predicted that Obamacare will fail.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Cook does the unthinkable and moves VA-10 to Leans D. Better 7 months late than never I guess

Where are you getting this from? Their website still has VA-10 as a tossup.

They released an article on it for subscribers only and they just haven't changed the chart yet. Did the same for KY-06 (moves from Leans R to Tossup).

Are they doing this because of Comstock's poor primary performance or do they mention some other reason?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Did you all know Richard Ojeda voted for Trump? 

http://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/392945-dem-house-candidate-in-west-virginia-voted-for-trump

I mean it's only a year since everyone was talking about this here in Atlas, but thanks anyway.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1016275773408174081

Nice.

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So Bagel types are not just sitting around, they are organizing, donating, and getting pledged votes in addition to others who are even involved much more.

There is such a thing as Bagel types?

They must be cousins of the jmfsct types.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Even with all the vulnerable Republicans being outraised by Democrats, there's still a good few Republicans who outraised their Democratic opponents. Some notable ones I've noticed are Dino Rossi, Carlos Curbelo, Brian Fitzpatrick, Peter Roskam, Troy Balderson, Mia Love, Greg Gianforte, Rodney Davis, Dan Donovan (scratch that, looks like he got outraised too), French Hill, Fred Upton, Brian Mast, Lee Zeldin, and David Joyce. They're still outnumbered by their outraised compatriots, however.

I think Gianforte was outraised too.

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https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1021832584207196169

Crystal Ball moves 17 races towards the Dems, including... WV-03 to TOSS UP: OJEDA OJEDA OJEDA

These are the same ones mentioned in the previous page.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Good thing King didn't run for statewide office in 2014, or he'd be a senator now.

Doubtful. Ernst was elected in large part because of her folksy, nice girl persona.
King's nasty personality and strident rhetoric would have turned off a lot of voters, so even Braley might have won in the end.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Good thing King didn't run for statewide office in 2014, or he'd be a senator now.

Doubtful. Ernst was elected in large part because of her folksy, nice girl persona.
King's nasty personality and strident rhetoric would have turned off a lot of voters, so even Braley might have won in the end.

Trump's nasty personality and strident rhetoric didn't matter to them.

But Trump ran against the "WORST PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE EVAH!!!", remember?

Anyway, a presidential election is a much different beast than a senatorial one and 2014 was different than 2016.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Good thing King didn't run for statewide office in 2014, or he'd be a senator now.

Doubtful. Ernst was elected in large part because of her folksy, nice girl persona.
King's nasty personality and strident rhetoric would have turned off a lot of voters, so even Braley might have won in the end.

Trump's nasty personality and strident rhetoric didn't matter to them.

But Trump ran against the "WORST PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE EVAH!!!", remember?

Anyway, a presidential election is a much different beast than a senatorial one and 2014 was different than 2016.

Yes, but 2014 was even more R-friendly than 2016

King is so odious that he might have lost even in the most R-friendly year. At the very least, the media would have focused on him and his inflammatory remarks and played down Braley's more mundane gaffes.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Sean T is back on the Wave Train:

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1021871962241544192

I'm guessing he won't get an appearance on Fox News regarding this.

Just wait till Labor Day when Republicans are going to experience another bump and he'll change his mind again.

[Landslide Lyndon]

New CNN Rating Changes:

FL-13: Likely Dem -> Solid Dem

Is Charlie Crist running unopposed or am I misremembering it?