2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Hollingsworth is safe

[IceSpear]

Good thing King didn't run for statewide office in 2014, or he'd be a senator now.

[wesmoorenerd]

Hollingsworth is safe

I mean, he's very likely going to win, but he's clearly not safe. Liz Watson is a great candidate who outraised Hollingsworth Q2 and despite being in a deep R district the DCCC apparently considers the race competitive enough to give her support in the form of Red to Blue.

[Greedo punched first]

Iowa is prone to wild swings.

[Jeppe]

60% required for an endorsement, but Myers still finished comfortably ahead of Bryce.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol.

[Zaybay]

huh

[Landslide Lyndon]

Good thing King didn't run for statewide office in 2014, or he'd be a senator now.

Doubtful. Ernst was elected in large part because of her folksy, nice girl persona.
King's nasty personality and strident rhetoric would have turned off a lot of voters, so even Braley might have won in the end.

[IceSpear]

Good thing King didn't run for statewide office in 2014, or he'd be a senator now.

Doubtful. Ernst was elected in large part because of her folksy, nice girl persona.
King's nasty personality and strident rhetoric would have turned off a lot of voters, so even Braley might have won in the end.

Trump's nasty personality and strident rhetoric didn't matter to them.

I don't see many people who happily voted for Ernst and Trump balking at King. At least not enough to close a 9 point margin. I'm pretty sure in 2014 anything with an R next to their name and a pulse would've won, especially against Braley. I guess you can exempt pedophiles and murderers from that, maybe.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Good thing King didn't run for statewide office in 2014, or he'd be a senator now.

Doubtful. Ernst was elected in large part because of her folksy, nice girl persona.
King's nasty personality and strident rhetoric would have turned off a lot of voters, so even Braley might have won in the end.

Trump's nasty personality and strident rhetoric didn't matter to them.

But Trump ran against the "WORST PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE EVAH!!!", remember?

Anyway, a presidential election is a much different beast than a senatorial one and 2014 was different than 2016.

[IceSpear]

Good thing King didn't run for statewide office in 2014, or he'd be a senator now.

Doubtful. Ernst was elected in large part because of her folksy, nice girl persona.
King's nasty personality and strident rhetoric would have turned off a lot of voters, so even Braley might have won in the end.

Trump's nasty personality and strident rhetoric didn't matter to them.

But Trump ran against the "WORST PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE EVAH!!!", remember?

Anyway, a presidential election is a much different beast than a senatorial one and 2016 was different than 2018.

Yeah, I agree. I think Dems pick up IA-01 and IA-03 this year and have a real chance at beating Reynolds. Political environment matters way more than candidate quality, which is actually quite unfortunate since it leads to garbage being washed ashore by waves.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Good thing King didn't run for statewide office in 2014, or he'd be a senator now.

Doubtful. Ernst was elected in large part because of her folksy, nice girl persona.
King's nasty personality and strident rhetoric would have turned off a lot of voters, so even Braley might have won in the end.

Trump's nasty personality and strident rhetoric didn't matter to them.

But Trump ran against the "WORST PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE EVAH!!!", remember?

Anyway, a presidential election is a much different beast than a senatorial one and 2014 was different than 2016.

Yes, but 2014 was even more R-friendly than 2016

King is so odious that he might have lost even in the most R-friendly year. At the very least, the media would have focused on him and his inflammatory remarks and played down Braley's more mundane gaffes.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Good thing King didn't run for statewide office in 2014, or he'd be a senator now.

Doubtful. Ernst was elected in large part because of her folksy, nice girl persona.
King's nasty personality and strident rhetoric would have turned off a lot of voters, so even Braley might have won in the end.

Trump's nasty personality and strident rhetoric didn't matter to them.

But Trump ran against the "WORST PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE EVAH!!!", remember?

Anyway, a presidential election is a much different beast than a senatorial one and 2016 was different than 2018.

Yeah, I agree. I think Dems pick up IA-01 and IA-03 this year and have a real chance at beating Reynolds. Political environment matters way more than candidate quality, which is actually quite unfortunate since it leads to garbage being washed ashore by waves.

Political poetry at its best.

[Ebsy]

Missed this:

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/house-democratic-campaign-arm-outraises-republicans-june-n893286

The DCCC announced Thursday that it raised almost $15.2 million last month, while the National Republican Campaign Committee reported on Friday that it raised $7.7 million in June. 

Both committees are sitting on significant reserves for the upcoming fight — the DCCC has more than $68 million banked away while the NRCC still has more than $64 million in the bank.

[Gass3268]

Sean T is back on the Wave Train:

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1021871962241544192

I'm guessing he won't get an appearance on Fox News regarding this.

[Mr. Illini]

We just might have a progressive Democratic representative in West Virginia and I am extremely here for that.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Sean T is back on the Wave Train:

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1021871962241544192

I'm guessing he won't get an appearance on Fox News regarding this.

Just wait till Labor Day when Republicans are going to experience another bump and he'll change his mind again.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Hollingsworth is safe

I mean, he's very likely going to win, but he's clearly not safe. Liz Watson is a great candidate who outraised Hollingsworth Q2 and despite being in a deep R district the DCCC apparently considers the race competitive enough to give her support in the form of Red to Blue.

I dunno if I'd call it "deep red". The district has a lot of ancestral D DNA, and had blue congressmen until 2010. It also only voted for Hollingsworth by about 10 in 2016 and may have gone for Donnelly in 2012. I'd say Likely R is fair.

[Jeppe]

“Meanwhile, EMILY's List-backed attorney Kristen Carlson is the Democratic front-runner after raising $249,000. Back in the 1980s, as general counsel to the Florida Department of Citrus, Carlson successfully lobbied the FDA to prosecute out-of-state "orange juice adulterators" who were passing off inferior juice as 100 percent OJ. She's a modest favorite over Navy veteran Andrew Learned, who was struggling to gain traction against Ross.

At a PVI of R+6, this district is well within the strike zone of plausible Democratic targets, and Carlson's experience with citrus could make her formidable in November, particularly if Republicans struggle to unite. The contest moves to the Lean Republican column.”

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/bottom-line-republicans-42-open-seats

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1022826383263916032

[Antonio the Sixth]

The purity of orange juice must be protected!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Glorious News! Pelosi's friends plan to boost Colin Allred's campaign with 2 million dollars! I approve!

https://www.wonkette.com/blue-wave-texas

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Glorious News! Pelosi's friends plan to boost Colin Allred's campaign with 2 million dollars! I approve!

https://www.wonkette.com/blue-wave-texas

[Gass3268]

New CNN Rating Changes:

FL-13: Likely Dem -> Solid Dem
IA-03: Lean Rep -> Toss Up
ME-02: Lean Rep -> Toss Up
OH-12: Lean Rep -> Toss Up
PA-16: Solid Rep -> Likely Rep
PA-17: Toss Up -> Lean Dem
SC-01: Solid Rep -> Likely Rep
TX-07: Lean Rep -> Toss Up
VA-02: Lean Rep -> Toss Up
VA-07: Lean Rep -> Toss Up
WV-03: Likely Rep -> Toss Up
WI-03: Likely Dem -> Solid Dem

Source

[Landslide Lyndon]

New CNN Rating Changes:

FL-13: Likely Dem -> Solid Dem

Is Charlie Crist running unopposed or am I misremembering it?