2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Arkansas Yankee]

Here are some folks who thing the GOP might grab a Senate seat in Minnesota:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/06/blue-wave-not-where-i-live.php

Just to give some of indigestion and give some of you the opportunity rage against me and call me names.  

I'll take a stab:

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1. It's not even anymore and it hasn't been for week(s). It's back to D+7 - D+8, depending on the aggregator. By the time the wider public started picking up on the narrative that the Democratic advantage was waning, it had already shifted violently back to where it was pre-decline. It did that so fast that apparently people like this author didn't even notice. Since Trump was elected, the most stable numbers for the GCB is D+7. The December tsunami numbers and the Republican surge of early 2018 were outliers. The stable numbers still point to a 2006-level wave, give or take.

2. Whenever reading partisan articles or analyses, always, always doubt those who say the party that controls the White House is going to have a wave, particularly when the overwhelming narrative of late has been that the out party is going to have a wave.

The party that controls the White House tends to lose grounds in midterms for a number of reasons, but it's a very accurate assumption because in virtually every midterm it has been the case. The only times it isn't is when the incumbent president is super popular - like 60%+ approvals, which Clinton and GWB were above in 1998 and 2002, respectively. The only other time I imagine it would happen is a major realignment like the Great Depression, and even then, I suspect whatever president is riding that realignment would be massively popular.

Point being that if a Republican president is in office and Joe Blow Republican says this midterm will be a R wave, laughter is appropriate. He's blinded by partisanship and probably doesn't have a clue what he's talking about. The same applies to Democrats when a Democratic president is in office.

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I mean, I'll let someone else with more knowledge of MN politics (and Smith) answer that directly, but conservatives are always calling every Democrat some hardcore liberal or flat out socialist. It's not accurate at all most of the time. Some of the people conservative pundits call commies or socialists would not pass the smell test with actual socialists. Not even remotely.


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This guy seems to be relying on anecdotal evidence (and what appear to be large partisan bias?) in whatever analysis he's making about the general climate. There is a reason anecdotal evidence should be treated as worthless. What if this guy just happens to live in a super conservative area of Minnesota? Or perhaps just a neighborhood? To him, it looks like everything is fine, but it really isn't. Or perhaps he lives in a more neutral area but for some reason he only seems to remember the things that back his idea of what it "should" be.

This is why relying on actual data is best. Not someone's feels.

But there is anecdotal information that the DFL activists are doing some unusual things that may cause the party some problems and a state mini wave Also Senator Smith is not a well known candidate.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Here are some folks who thing the GOP might grab a Senate seat in Minnesota:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/06/blue-wave-not-where-i-live.php

Just to give some of indigestion and give some of you the opportunity rage against me and call me names. 

Maybe that's another thing that turns you on, but anyways Housley winning is something that even Limo and I would nearly laugh at. Here is probably what is going to go down in the next few months, Smith wins with a mov around the high single digits, but you still pull a narrative out of your a$$ showing how great it is for Republicans. Kind of like when your pedo buddy lost in Alabama. It will make Lou Barletta's spins look like they are bias for democrats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wait, Republicans think they can actually defeat Smith? That is hilariously delusional. Mitch McConnell would laugh his ass off at that prospect. The media needs to stop peddling this “narrowing of the generic ballot” because that hasn’t been the case for the past two weeks.

You'd think they would've noticed the Democrats leading by 7.5 in the averages by now.

[KingSweden]

Power line is a GOP hack site

[Politician]

Power line is a GOP hack site

Every GOP site peddles the same denialist bullsh**t. Did the Democrats deny they would get wiped out in 2010 by this point. NO.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Cook does the unthinkable and moves VA-10 to Leans D. Better 7 months late than never I guess

It was only a matter of time. The primary was overall pretty abysmal for the VAGOP, but especially for Comstock.

[Kodak]

Cook does the unthinkable and moves VA-10 to Leans D. Better 7 months late than never I guess

Where are you getting this from? Their website still has VA-10 as a tossup.

[ltomlinson31]

Cook does the unthinkable and moves VA-10 to Leans D. Better 7 months late than never I guess

Where are you getting this from? Their website still has VA-10 as a tossup.

They released an article on it for subscribers only and they just haven't changed the chart yet. Did the same for KY-06 (moves from Leans R to Tossup).

[Gass3268]

Cook does the unthinkable and moves VA-10 to Leans D. Better 7 months late than never I guess

Where are you getting this from? Their website still has VA-10 as a tossup.

They released an article on it for subscribers only and they just haven't changed the chart yet. Did the same for KY-06 (moves from Leans R to Tossup).

Were those the only two?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Cook does the unthinkable and moves VA-10 to Leans D. Better 7 months late than never I guess

Where are you getting this from? Their website still has VA-10 as a tossup.

They released an article on it for subscribers only and they just haven't changed the chart yet. Did the same for KY-06 (moves from Leans R to Tossup).

Are they doing this because of Comstock's poor primary performance or do they mention some other reason?

[Politician]

Cook does the unthinkable and moves VA-10 to Leans D. Better 7 months late than never I guess

OH MY GOD THEY FINALLY PEG AN INCUMBENT AS AN UNDERDOG

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

J.D. Durkin is predicting Ocasio will unseat Crowley in NY14

https://twitter.com/jiveDurkey/status/1008759739239448576

[Calthrina950]

Think about this: For Wisconsin and Florida, Sabato Crystal Ball has the same Senate ratings for those states that King Lear had.

Florida is justifiable because of Rick Scott, but Wisconsin is absolutely Likely or Safe D. Lear and Sabato both ignore candidate quality (unless it's a Republican candidate of course) and fawn over presidential results.

If anything, Rick Scott is a weak candidate who will do worse against Bill Nelson than almost any other Republican would.

I disagree with this. I think that Nelson will win, but the race will be decided by single digits. Scott, arguably, is the strongest opponent Nelson has faced since he was first elected to the Senate.

[KingSweden]

J.D. Durkin is predicting Ocasio will unseat Crowley in NY14

https://twitter.com/jiveDurkey/status/1008759739239448576

I highly doubt that will happen

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

J.D. Durkin is predicting Ocasio will unseat Crowley in NY14

https://twitter.com/jiveDurkey/status/1008759739239448576

I highly doubt that will happen

It's possible.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Power line is a GOP hack site

Every GOP site peddles the same denialist bullsh**t. Did the Democrats deny they would get wiped out in 2010 by this point. NO.

I don’t know about Democrats on this site.  But I remember plenty of Democrats denying the 2010 wave.

I do not understand how all the turmoil in the Democratic Party is helpful to Democrats.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Did you all know Richard Ojeda voted for Trump? 

http://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/392945-dem-house-candidate-in-west-virginia-voted-for-trump

[ON Progressive]

I do not understand how all the turmoil in the Democrat Party is helpful to Democrats.

I have no clue what "turmoil" you're talking about. The only "turmoil" in the party is a few dozen people on twitter (which most Americans don't even use) who can't stop re-litigating the 2016 primary.

The GOP had a lot more turmoil with the Tea Party primaries in 2010, and it didn't prevent them from having a huge wave.

[JG]

Power line is a GOP hack site

Every GOP site peddles the same denialist bullsh**t. Did the Democrats deny they would get wiped out in 2010 by this point. NO.

I don’t know about Democrats on this site.  But I remember plenty of Democrats denying the 2010 wave.

I do not understand how all the turmoil in the Democrat Party is helpful to Democrats.

What turmoil? Asides from some Bernies bros and Clinton fans arguing about 2016, most actual politicans from all wings of the party have been pretty united. While I agree that the Dems need to work on messaging, they have been pretty united so far. Of course, it might chance once the primaries begin but we aren't there just yet.

[Brittain33]

Did you all know Richard Ojeda voted for Trump? 

http://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/392945-dem-house-candidate-in-west-virginia-voted-for-trump

Oh good, that will help him greatly in this anti-Clinton district.

[ON Progressive]

Did you all know Richard Ojeda voted for Trump? 

http://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/392945-dem-house-candidate-in-west-virginia-voted-for-trump

Literally everybody here knows this. You can't ignore that he regrets voting for Trump, and that voting for Trump certainly won't hurt him in a 73-23 Trump seat.

I would reckon the majority of registered Ds in WV-03 voted for Trump, honestly.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Did you all know Richard Ojeda voted for Trump? 

http://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/392945-dem-house-candidate-in-west-virginia-voted-for-trump

I mean it's only a year since everyone was talking about this here in Atlas, but thanks anyway.

[Doimper]

Did you all know Richard Ojeda voted for Trump? 

http://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/392945-dem-house-candidate-in-west-virginia-voted-for-trump

Clearly a massive liability in West Virginia.

[Virginiá]

I do not understand how all the turmoil in the Democratic Party is helpful to Democrats.

Any intra-party turmoil is unhelpful but it doesn't necessarily hurt their electoral prospects. The Republican base was stirred into a frenzy after Obama was elected and essentially waged a partisan civil war against their party's "establishment" wing, and yet they still consolidated quite a bit of power.

The point here is that when a group of people is faced with what they perceive to be a large threat to their way of life, they may fight amongst each other about their vision for America and the way forward but they will still support their people when it comes time to vote.

[KingSweden]

J.D. Durkin is predicting Ocasio will unseat Crowley in NY14

https://twitter.com/jiveDurkey/status/1008759739239448576

I highly doubt that will happen

It's possible.

Absolutely, but still unlikely in a machine district against said machine’s boss.