2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Young Conservative]

Crystal Ball makes 15 rating changes, 14 in favor of Democrats (AZ-08 being the other).

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/raising-the-ceiling-but-not-the-floor-on-potential-democratic-house-gains/

Yes, it makes complete sense to move a seat where the kerning come it just won a special election by less than five points against the same candidate she'll be facing in November from likely to safe.

General elections are less volatile than special elections. Savarino obviously made the right call.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/989840071028301824

Just no.

Did you not see AZ-08? A random woman nearly beat a state senator in a +21 Trump +25 Romney district LOL

Also we won PA-18 lol

And 47% of the voters were registered republicans and the median age of voters was 67

There are on the ground differences. I mentioned a lot of this on a a d last night, but the summary is difference in candidate quality. First off, let's go is not considered a crazy ass Wingnut only by the comparison of other even crazier full-blown mental ward right-wingers that the Arizona GOP has been taken over by. Nevertheless, even by AZ 8 standards she was hardly an a grade can it, and arguably not More Than A B minus or C+ level candidate. Furthermore, I would hardly call the Democratic candidate just some woman. She was a pretty damn good pick.

Meanwhile, in o h 12, the Republicans have a slew of top quality candidates, leading the pack being two state senators and the County prosecutor from probably the preeminent County in the district, none of whom are so right wing that they are bound to join the freedom caucus if elected. Any one of them would make a significantly more formidable candidate then lesko. The Democrats have only decent ish candidates. Assuming ZackScott doesn't somehow still the primary, in which case you can call this race a guinea for the Republicans considering that guy will never encourage the base to turn out, they're torn between some businessman in Delaware who has been getting a lot of endorsements, and the Franklin County Recorder, O'Connor. O'Connor would be decent, but Franklin County is only a small part of this District, and I could see him having trouble raising sufficient support outside Franklin County to tip the balance. The Delaware business man seems promising, and he might be able 2 get significant support in that all important County, and still run up massive numbers in the Franklin County portion nearly as well as O'Conner would. Still, this is his first run for office and he is untried.

If any of the Republicans main three candidates are nominated, it would be at least lean Republican if not likely against either of the 2 top Democratic contenders. Buy lean-to likely I mean it would be a close race with a significant swing tour the Democrats, but just like every other special election except pa-18 the Republicans would still come out a few points on top. The Democrats best chance here is that with enough generic conservatives with a lengthy political resume running, there is a chance of a Township Trustee backed by the freedom caucus and running as an outsider slipping through a primary where the non Outsider candidates split their support largely on Geographic grounds. If that person winds up being the Republican nominee against either of the top two Democratic contenders, you can easily put this as a genuine toss-up, and gun to my head I'd say the Democrat wins.

Yes, this is still a potentially vulnerable seat even against the top three Republican contenders if any of them win the nomination. However, Democrats would be foolish to assume that merely because this district has a more favorable pvi than a Z8 did that it's even a genuine toss-up at this point, as the Republican candidates are much stronger here.

[Badger]

Crystal Ball makes 15 rating changes, 14 in favor of Democrats (AZ-08 being the other).

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/raising-the-ceiling-but-not-the-floor-on-potential-democratic-house-gains/

Yes, it makes complete sense to move a seat where the kerning come it just won a special election by less than five points against the same candidate she'll be facing in November from likely to safe.

General elections are less volatile than special elections. Savarino obviously made the right call.

You've been preaching that line of BS to somehow explain why Democrats have repeatedly and consistently managed major ass swings in special election after special election in legislative race after legislative race, bordering on uniformly, for the last year. Furthermore, even if we apply this novel theory of yours  to the actual race on the ground, Hispanic turnout  in  AZ 8 IRC rather sucked. While minority turnout tends to be lower in midterms than in  presidential years,  you can bet it's going to be better in November than it was Tuesday. On the other hand, turnout among elderly whites and Republicans as a percentage of the electorate has little room to expand from Tuesday's results.

The only " volatile" thing affecting election results this year is Trump, and that sure as hell isn't going to improve by November.

[Oryxslayer]

Crystal Ball makes 15 rating changes, 14 in favor of Democrats (AZ-08 being the other).

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/raising-the-ceiling-but-not-the-floor-on-potential-democratic-house-gains/

Yes, it makes complete sense to move a seat where the kerning come it just won a special election by less than five points against the same candidate she'll be facing in November from likely to safe.

General elections are less volatile than special elections. Savarino obviously made the right call.

You've been preaching that line of BS to somehow explain why Democrats have repeatedly and consistently managed major ass swings in special election after special election in legislative race after legislative race, bordering on uniformly, for the last year. Furthermore, even if we apply this novel theory of yours  to the actual race on the ground, Hispanic turnout  in  AZ 8 IRC rather sucked. While minority turnout tends to be lower in midterms than in  presidential years,  you can bet it's going to be better in November than it was Tuesday. On the other hand, turnout among elderly whites and Republicans as a percentage of the electorate has little room to expand from Tuesday's results.

The only " volatile" thing affecting election results this year is Trump, and that sure as hell isn't going to improve by November.

He is 'half' correct. OPEN seats tend to be incredibly volatile, and special elections add even more volatility to the mix.  Now that AZ-08 has an incumbent, its massive R PVi should preserve her. However, any open seat may become a target in November.

[BuckeyeNut]

I think your OH-12 analysis is pretty off, Badger.

Franklin County is roughly 50% of the district, while the other 50% are made up of other counties. And would-be Freedom caucus member was only narrowly behind Balderson in terms of fundraising. Between Balderson, Bacon, O’Brien — and maybe even Kane — there seems a very good chance Leneghan becomes the nominee for not only the special, but the general too.

This is also the most winnable special election yet. I started off feeling bery negative about this, but am feeling pretty cofident now. OH-12 has a very active Indivisible, too.

Also, this is not John Russell’s first run for office. He ran for state representative last year in the district that is comprised of East Delaware County and all of Knox. He lost, obviously, but outran Clinton by at least 7% in every precinct, and upward of 20% in other areas.

[Virginiá]

He is 'half' correct. OPEN seats tend to be incredibly volatile, and special elections add even more volatility to the mix.  Now that AZ-08 has an incumbent, its massive R PVi should preserve her. However, any open seat may become a target in November.

I wonder what House elections would look like if people voted for a party rather than a specific candidate in each district (so they wouldn't even see the candidate names). That would theoretically neutralize the incumbent effect for most voters (aside from ones intimately aware of their elected representatives), no?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Why is Bagel in denial over OH12? PA18 and AZ08 are twice as republican as that district and we know what happened in those races.

[IceSpear]

Why is Bagel in denial over OH12? PA18 and AZ08 are twice as republican as that district and we know what happened in those races.

Pretty sure some posters here will still be rating the House as likely R even while Pelosi is being given the speaker's gavel, lol.

[IceSpear]

Why is Bagel in denial over OH12? PA18 and AZ08 are twice as republican as that district and we know what happened in those races.

Pretty sure some posters here will still be rating the House as likely R even while Pelosi is being given the speaker's gavel, lol.

I’ve no joke seen this argument from some Republicans:

“Democrats only gained one House seat so far. How can they win the House if they keep coming so close but no cigar?”

Uh, cuz all those seats were like R+15 lol

Can you imagine the shoe being on the other foot?

"Haha, take that GOP! Maxine Waters just won re-election by SEVEN points! Enjoy your moral victory conservatards! LOLOLOL"

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Funny but not serious logic twist:

There have been 8 special elections for the House so far.

6: R Hold
1: D Gain
1: D Hold

This indicates a rate of 0% of Democratic seats flipping and 14% of Republican seats flipping

So lets just say that of the 194 seats Democrats won in 2016, all 194 stay Democratic.

And for every of the 241 seats Republicans won in 2016, 1 flips Democratic for every 6 that stay Republican.

This equates to 34 seats flipping Democratic and 207 seats staying Republican.

D+34 confirmed.

Democrats will take the House in 2018 by a 228 to 207 majority.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Funny but not serious logic twist:

There have been 8 special elections for the House so far.

6: R Hold
1: D Gain
1: D Hold

This indicates a rate of 0% of Democratic seats flipping and 14% of Republican seats flipping

So lets just say that of the 194 seats Democrats won in 2016, all 194 stay Democratic.

And for every of the 241 seats Republicans won in 2016, 1 flips Democratic for every 6 that stay Republican.

This equates to 34 seats flipping Democratic and 207 seats staying Republican.

D+34 confirmed.

Democrats will take the House in 2018 by a 228 to 207 majority.

If it winds up with exactly that margin, which is not implausible, you'll look like a genius!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Funny but not serious logic twist:

There have been 8 special elections for the House so far.

6: R Hold
1: D Gain
1: D Hold

This indicates a rate of 0% of Democratic seats flipping and 14% of Republican seats flipping

So lets just say that of the 194 seats Democrats won in 2016, all 194 stay Democratic.

And for every of the 241 seats Republicans won in 2016, 1 flips Democratic for every 6 that stay Republican.

This equates to 34 seats flipping Democratic and 207 seats staying Republican.

D+34 confirmed.

Democrats will take the House in 2018 by a 228 to 207 majority.

If it winds up with exactly that margin, which is not implausible, you'll look like a genius!

You can make a case that there'll be more flips because all the specials were in seats that were way more Republican than the median House seat.

[Badger]

I think your OH-12 analysis is pretty off, Badger.

Franklin County is roughly 50% of the district, while the other 50% are made up of other counties. And would-be Freedom caucus member was only narrowly behind Balderson in terms of fundraising. Between Balderson, Bacon, O’Brien — and maybe even Kane — there seems a very good chance Leneghan becomes the nominee for not only the special, but the general too.

This is also the most winnable special election yet. I started off feeling bery negative about this, but am feeling pretty cofident now. OH-12 has a very active Indivisible, too.

Also, this is not John Russell’s first run for office. He ran for state representative last year in the district that is comprised of East Delaware County and all of Knox. He lost, obviously, but outran Clinton by at least 7% in every precinct, and upward of 20% in other areas.

I didn't realize half of the electorate was in Franklin County. That does change my view somewhat, though if I recall correctly at some of the more Republican areas such as Westerville.

I'm not saying the freedom caucus nut can't win the primary. Though I'd be interested in knowing if her fundraising numbers included the $200,000 gift from the freedom caucus. That would indicate if she has some Grassroots support as well. At any rate, if she wins this is at least toss up if not tilt d.

Wait a minute. Are there two elections going on, one primary for the special and one for the general election?

[Oryxslayer]

I think your OH-12 analysis is pretty off, Badger.

Franklin County is roughly 50% of the district, while the other 50% are made up of other counties. And would-be Freedom caucus member was only narrowly behind Balderson in terms of fundraising. Between Balderson, Bacon, O’Brien — and maybe even Kane — there seems a very good chance Leneghan becomes the nominee for not only the special, but the general too.

This is also the most winnable special election yet. I started off feeling bery negative about this, but am feeling pretty cofident now. OH-12 has a very active Indivisible, too.

Also, this is not John Russell’s first run for office. He ran for state representative last year in the district that is comprised of East Delaware County and all of Knox. He lost, obviously, but outran Clinton by at least 7% in every precinct, and upward of 20% in other areas.

I hope you mean primary electorate here. Franklin on has about 200K people in Oh-12, compared to the 500K outside the seat. Both turnout in recent presidential elections at expected levels: ~250K for non-franklin, ~100-120K for Franklin.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/04/30/scott-raises-32m-in-first-3-weeks-topping-nelsons-best-3-months-391388
Rick Scott raised 3.2 Million dollars in his first 3 weeks of fundraising which he is touting as being larger than Nelson's first three months of 2018 totals.

[Virginiá]

I still don't understand why so much value is placed in Scott's fundraising (or rather, self-funding) abilities. These are expenditure totals from FL's elections website:

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That doesn't take into account outside group spending and such, but it's a rough overview. Scott blew her out of the water in spending and he still only won by like 1% in a Republican wave year. He's not a particularly strong candidate, and while he may have better approvals now, history is still a lesson that money can only do so much for a person - and even less for someone as well-known as Scott.

[UncleSam]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/04/30/scott-raises-32m-in-first-3-weeks-topping-nelsons-best-3-months-391388
Rick Scott raised 3.2 Million dollars in his first 3 weeks of fundraising which he is touting as being larger than Nelson's first three months of 2018 totals.

100 million race incoming

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I still don't understand why so much value is placed in Scott's fundraising (or rather, self-funding) abilities. These are expenditure totals from FL's elections website:

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That doesn't take into account outside group spending and such, but it's a rough overview. Scott blew her out of the water in spending and he still only won by like 1% in a Republican wave year. He's not a particularly strong candidate, and while he may have better approvals now, history is still a lesson that money can only do so much for a person - and even less for someone as well-known as Scott.

The media loves money because they are chasing it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN moves a dozen seats toward the Democrats

Solid R -> Likely R: AZ-06, CA-04, FL-16, MI-01, OH-07
Likely R -> Lean R: AR-02, IL-14, NJ-03, NM-02, OH-01, WA-05, WI-06

They now have:

Solid R: 162
Likely R: 25
Lean R: 25
Tossup: 21 (currently 2 D, 19 R)
Lean D: 11 (including 7 currently R)
Likely D: 11 (including 2 currently R)
Solid D: 180

Full lists of the non-solid ratings are in the article.

[smoltchanov]

CNN moves a dozen seats toward the Democrats

Solid R -> Likely R: AZ-06, CA-04, FL-16, MI-01, OH-07
Likely R -> Lean R: AR-02, IL-14, NJ-03, NM-02, OH-01, WA-05, WI-06

They now have:

Solid R: 162
Likely R: 25
Lean R: 25
Tossup: 21 (currently 2 D, 19 R)
Lean D: 11 (including 7 currently R)
Likely D: 11 (including 2 currently R)
Solid D: 180

Full lists of the non-solid ratings are in the article.

Well, good for Democrats, but still not very good. If we suppose that "likely" seats will stay where they are with 0,95 probability, and "lean" seats with 0.75 probability (usually - real results are not that different), assign all "safe" seats to the parties, which have them now, and split toss-up seats 50-50, that gives following result: R:218,3, D: 216,7. Absolutely minimal difference, but - still... (despite a very good Democratic year)

[Gass3268]

I'm working on a master ratings spreadsheet and I currently have: Crystal Ball, Cook, Insider Elections, CNN and The Crosstab. Does anyone know of any others that I could be missing?

[OneJ]

I'm working on a master ratings spreadsheet and I currently have: Crystal Ball, Cook, Insider Elections, CNN and The Crosstab. Does anyone know of any others that I could be missing?

What about 270?

[Gustaf]

I'm working on a master ratings spreadsheet and I currently have: Crystal Ball, Cook, Insider Elections, CNN and The Crosstab. Does anyone know of any others that I could be missing?

What about 270?

IIRC, they use either Sabato or Cook, I forget which.

[CityofSinners]

I'm working on a master ratings spreadsheet and I currently have: Crystal Ball, Cook, Insider Elections, CNN and The Crosstab. Does anyone know of any others that I could be missing?

RRH also does ratings. Partisan site but the ratings are solid.

[Gass3268]

I'm working on a master ratings spreadsheet and I currently have: Crystal Ball, Cook, Insider Elections, CNN and The Crosstab. Does anyone know of any others that I could be missing?

RRH also does ratings. Partisan site but the ratings are solid.

I'll add them too! Thank you.