2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1006956239878807553

Brutal for VA 2, 5, 7 & 10.

Idle threats. These people have convinced themselves that Democrats are worse than Pol Pot.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Realistically are all four really competitive? I know VA-10 and VA-2 are but the other two seem to be reach seats

VA-7 is tilt-D and more likely to flip than VA-2 which is Lean R.

[ltomlinson31]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1006963370019442695

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1006963370019442695

Both of these changes make perfect sense.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1006963370019442695

Both of these changes make perfect sense.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sean T at RCP shifted only ONE race to the Democrats.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Sean T at RCP shifted only ONE race to the Democrats.

Man he's getting hackish

[ON Progressive]

Sean T at RCP shifted only ONE race to the Democrats.

Man he's getting hackish

Getting?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Sean T at RCP shifted only ONE race to the Democrats.

Man he's getting hackish

He is been hackish since the days when he predicted that Obamacare will fail.

[Gass3268]

Sean T at RCP shifted only ONE race to the Democrats.

Which one?

[Young Conservative]

Sean T at RCP shifted only ONE race to the Democrats.

Man he's getting hackish

He is been hackish since the days when he predicted that Obamacare will fail.

But it did though

[Brittain33]

Sean T at RCP shifted only ONE race to the Democrats.

Man he's getting hackish

He is been hackish since the days when he predicted that Obamacare will fail.

But it did though

No, it didn't. Republicans have taken a big whack to it though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sean T at RCP shifted only ONE race to the Democrats.

Man he's getting hackish

He is been hackish since the days when he predicted that Obamacare will fail.

But it did though

No, it didn't. Republicans have taken a big whack to it though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How about taking the Obamacare debate to its own thread and not derailing this one, please?

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1006956239878807553

Because what these people thought really mattered so much in 2016. For every wealthy elite GOP megadonor living in Arlington that Stewart turns off, he energizes 100 Racist VA Hicks (i.e. the base) in exchange. From a pure cynical numbers perspective, it's a great trade.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1006956239878807553

Because what these people thought really mattered so much in 2016. For every wealthy elite GOP megadonor living in Arlington that Stewart turns off, he energizes 100 Racist VA Hicks (i.e. the base) in exchange. From a pure cynical numbers perspective, it's a great trade.

For god sakes IceSpear we had a governor race just last year were the GOP nom race on cultural resentment red meat and it resulted in him losing the race by the biggest margin someone had lost a governor race by in Virginia in 30 years

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1006956239878807553

Because what these people thought really mattered so much in 2016. For every wealthy elite GOP megadonor living in Arlington that Stewart turns off, he energizes 100 Racist VA Hicks (i.e. the base) in exchange. From a pure cynical numbers perspective, it's a great trade.

For god sakes IceSpear we had a governor race just last year were the GOP nom race on cultural resentment red meat and it resulted in him losing the race by the biggest margin someone had lost a governor race by in Virginia in 30 years

Right, Stewart will lose. Probably by double digits. But the people orgasming about how Kaine is now going to win by eleventy bazillion points are being silly. Stewart will turn people off at the margins, but the base LOVES him, and they constitute the vast majority of Republican voters. He's guaranteed at least 40%.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1006956239878807553

Because what these people thought really mattered so much in 2016. For every wealthy elite GOP megadonor living in Arlington that Stewart turns off, he energizes 100 Racist VA Hicks (i.e. the base) in exchange. From a pure cynical numbers perspective, it's a great trade.

For god sakes IceSpear we had a governor race just last year were the GOP nom race on cultural resentment red meat and it resulted in him losing the race by the biggest margin someone had lost a governor race by in Virginia in 30 years

Right, Stewart will lose. Probably by double digits. But the people orgasming about how Kaine is now going to win by eleventy bazillion points are being silly. Stewart will turn people off at the margins, but the base LOVES him, and they constitute the vast majority of Republican voters. He's guaranteed at least 40%.

I’m not sure. Stewart is going to get no help and Kaine has a stronger brand than Northam had. So Kaine crushing him by almost 20 wouldn’t shock me

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1006956239878807553

Because what these people thought really mattered so much in 2016. For every wealthy elite GOP megadonor living in Arlington that Stewart turns off, he energizes 100 Racist VA Hicks (i.e. the base) in exchange. From a pure cynical numbers perspective, it's a great trade.

For god sakes IceSpear we had a governor race just last year were the GOP nom race on cultural resentment red meat and it resulted in him losing the race by the biggest margin someone had lost a governor race by in Virginia in 30 years

IceSpear is just dumping a well deserved bucket of turd on Sabato's "friends and family" and "all my inside the beltway elite buddies are clutching their pearls" style punditry and the feel-good reassurance it inspires along the liberal twitterati.

Haha, well put.

[UncleSam]

Ya barring #metoo style scandals Stewart is done. I agree it is unlikely to be by 20, however - Stewart should be able to get the base out and with his bizarre support in PWC he should hit 41-42%. Kaine by 12-15 is probably the final result.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

lol CA-50 was always going to be quite a stretch even with Hunter's scandals, Najjar was the better candidate of the two anyways. Butner seemed very overhyped.

Fun fact about Najjar: Apparently his grandfather, Mohammed Youssef al-Najjar (a.k.a. Abu Youssef) was third in command of the PLO and also helped plan the Munich massacre as Black September’s operations chief.  

In fairness, I don’t know what Ammar’s views are and hopefully he’s denounced his grandfather’s terrorism, but in light of this, Butner was definitely a stronger candidate b/c this is definitely gonna get brought up if Hunter feels he’s in any danger.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

lol CA-50 was always going to be quite a stretch even with Hunter's scandals, Najjar was the better candidate of the two anyways. Butner seemed very overhyped.

Fun fact about Najjar: Apparently his grandfather, Mohammed Youssef al-Najjar (a.k.a. Abu Youssef) was third in command of the PLO and also helped plan the Munich massacre as Black September’s operations chief.  

In fairness, I don’t know what Ammar’s views are and hopefully he’s denounced his grandfather’s terrorism, but in light of this, Butner was definitely a stronger candidate b/c this is definitely gonna get brought up if Hunter feels he’s in any danger.

Yeah, that's pretty brutal. Even I as someone who is ok with Hamas, and is warm to Hezbollah really thinks that attack was brutal.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ya barring #metoo style scandals Stewart is done. I agree it is unlikely to be by 20, however - Stewart should be able to get the base out and with his bizarre support in PWC he should hit 41-42%. Kaine by 12-15 is probably the final result.

Even with metoo scenarios, I think Kaine would edge out 49-48.

[Doimper]

Ya barring #metoo style scandals Stewart is done. I agree it is unlikely to be by 20, however - Stewart should be able to get the base out and with his bizarre support in PWC he should hit 41-42%. Kaine by 12-15 is probably the final result.

Even with metoo scenarios, I think Kaine would edge out 49-48.

even with a vague, unspecified scandal, I think my preferred candidate would win by a margin that I have pulled out of my ass

[smoltchanov]

Ya barring #metoo style scandals Stewart is done. I agree it is unlikely to be by 20, however - Stewart should be able to get the base out and with his bizarre support in PWC he should hit 41-42%. Kaine by 12-15 is probably the final result.

+1.