2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is a really bad map.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is a really bad map.

how?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is a really bad map.

how?

For starters the GOP is much more likely to lose KS 2, TX 32, TX 7, and NJ 3 to the dems than them losing Katko and Valadao lol.

[Oryxslayer]

This thread for pundent and official ratings, not personal ratings. We have plenty of general threads for discussing your own personal ratings. this is not the kind of content that should be here.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1021832584207196169

Crystal Ball moves 17 races towards the Dems, including... WV-03 to TOSS UP: OJEDA OJEDA OJEDA

[Greedo punched first]

IA-04 is no longer rated Safe R.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1021832584207196169

Crystal Ball moves 17 races towards the Dems, including... WV-03 to TOSS UP: OJEDA OJEDA OJEDA

These are the same ones mentioned in the previous page.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Please remove Steve King from Congress.

[McGovernForPrez]

He's got a strong opponent and tariffs are an especially big issue there compared to other Iowa districts. Seems like we good call for now.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

He's got a strong opponent and tariffs are an especially big issue there compared to other Iowa districts. Seems like we good call for now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

King is almost certainly not going to lose because of his popularity with farmers. But I could see a closer result than expected.

[ON Progressive]

Still Safe R.

Sure, King is undoubtedly a racist and one of the biggest HPs in Congress. However, his racist views aren't unpopular in his district.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

He's got a strong opponent and tariffs are an especially big issue there compared to other Iowa districts. Seems like we good call for now.

[KingSweden]

Guys he’s not going to lose

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys he’s not going to lose

I basically use likely R as meaning we all know that there is like only a negligible chance of the other side winning but the margin won't be high enough to be called safe.

[Greedo punched first]

Any chance Rod Blum or David Young loses? Might Kim Reynolds lose the gubernatorial race?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Any chance Rod Blum or David Young loses? Might Kim Reynolds lose the gubernatorial race?

More than 50, around 25-30, very little.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Any chance Rod Blum or David Young loses? Might Kim Reynolds lose the gubernatorial race?

All three are highly plausible.

[Greedo punched first]

Steve King is safe, but might this signal a Democratic swing in Iowa?

[Tekken_Guy]

Rating changes on Sabato:

AR-02 (Hill): Likely R > Lean R
FL-13 (Crist): Likely D > Safe D
FL-16 (Buchanan): Likely R > Lean R
IA-03 (Young): Lean R > Tossup
IA-04 (King): Safe R > Likely R
IL-06 (Roskam): Lean R > Tossup
IN-02 (Walorski): Safe R > Likely R
IN-09 (Hollingsworth): Safe R > Likely R
KY-06 (Barr): Lean R > Tossup
MI-08 (Bishop): Lean R > Tossup
NM-02 (Open): Likely R > Lean R
OH-01 (Chabot): Lean R > Tossup
OH-12 Special: Lean R > Tossup
PA-16 (Kelly): Safe R > Likely R
TX-07 (Culberson): Lean R > Tossup
TX-31 (Carter): Safe R > Likely R
WV-03 (Open): Lean R > Tossup

There are now 34 Republican held tossups and 2 Democratic held tossups. GOP is favoured in 200 seats and the Dems are favoured in 199.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-house-tilts-toward-the-democrats/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Crystal_Ball+%28Larry+J.+Sabato%27s+Crystal+Ball%29

Most of the ratings changes are just catching up to Cook. King is the biggest new name on the board.

[Zaybay]

Ojeda didnt win. 0/10, bad map.

[Zaybay]

PleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePlease
PleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePlease
PleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePlease
PleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePlease
PleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePleasePlease
PleasePleasePleasePleasePlease.

[Dr. MB]

-

PleasePleasePlease condense your messages.

[Zaybay]

-

PleasePleasePlease condense your messages.

Sorry about that, thanks for notifying me about that.

Anyway, I really want him to lose, and this is the best year for it to occur. As others have stated, D year, rural area, weak incumbent, strong challenger, and tariffs could power us over the partisan curve.

[wesmoorenerd]

Rating changes on Sabato:

AR-02 (Hill): Likely R > Lean R
FL-13 (Crist): Likely D > Safe D
FL-16 (Buchanan): Likely R > Lean R
IA-03 (Young): Lean R > Tossup
IA-04 (King): Safe R > Likely R
IL-06 (Roskam): Lean R > Tossup
IN-02 (Walorski): Safe R > Likely R
IN-09 (Hollingsworth): Safe R > Likely R
KY-06 (Barr): Lean R > Tossup
MI-08 (Bishop): Lean R > Tossup
NM-02 (Open): Likely R > Lean R
OH-01 (Chabot): Lean R > Tossup
OH-12 Special: Lean R > Tossup
PA-16 (Kelly): Safe R > Likely R
TX-07 (Culberson): Lean R > Tossup
TX-31 (Carter): Safe R > Likely R
WV-03 (Open): Lean R > Tossup

There are now 34 Republican held tossups and 2 Democratic held tossups. GOP is favoured in 200 seats and the Dems are favoured in 199.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-house-tilts-toward-the-democrats/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Crystal_Ball+%28Larry+J.+Sabato%27s+Crystal+Ball%29

Most of the ratings changes are just catching up to Cook. King is the biggest new name on the board.

I gotta say, it's shocking to me that none of the three major forecasters moved Hollingsworth's district to Likely R. The pundits are ignoring a lot of deep (non-Atlas) red district sleeper races, like MD-01, CO-04, and AL-05.