Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Last PR seat called in Kinki for RS over JRP

           District         PR          Total               
LDP          187            72          259       
KP               9            23            32           
JRP            16            25            41         
DPP             6              5           11         
CDP           57            39            96         
RS              0              3              3         
SDP            1              0              1           
JCP             1              9            10           
Ind.          12                            12  (6 pro-LDP 6 anti-LDP)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465

2 of the 6 pro-LDP winners have already been retroactively nominated by LDP.  Given the size of the LDP majority on their own, I think the other 4 LDP rebels will try to make their way back into LDP under the old rule "If you win you are LDP."

[jaichind]

Another trend I noticed.  A lot f 2017 winners won under a different party label (HP or independent) but ran in 2017 as CDP lost.  It seems CDP has a party label problem.   In 2017 it was viewed as a party with a difference.  That image is being lost.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In honor of the failure of the CDP-JCP alliance in this election, I hereby present this meme:

[jaichind]

Only a bit of vote left outstanding. PR vote is now

LDP       34.7%
KP         12.4%
PNHK      1.4%
JRP       14.0%
DPP        4.5%
CDP       20.0%
RS          3.9%
SDP        1.8%
JCP         7.3%
Minor      0.2% (.1% extreme Right, .1% anti-establishment left)

We can now update our PR vote history chart

              LDP            KP          LDP-KP    Center-Left  Third Pole   JCP    Anti-System  Anti-System
                                                                                                              Right            Left
2000      28.31%     12.97%    41.28%     34.71%     12.78%   11.23%     
2001      38.57%     14.96%    53.53%     24.60%     13.86%     7.91%      0.11%   
2003      34.96%     14.78%    49.73%     42.51%                     7.76%     
2004      30.03%     15.41%    45.45%     46.52%                     7.80%      0.23%   
2005      38.18%     13.25%    51.43%     36.51%       4.81%     7.25%     
2007      28.08%     13.18%    41.26%     45.80%       5.16%     7.48%      0.29%   
2009      26.73%     11.45%    38.18%     46.68%       7.46%     7.03%      0.65%   
2010      24.07%     13.07%    37.14%     36.11%     20.26%     6.10%      0.39%   
2012      27.62%     11.83%    39.45%     24.05%     30.01%     6.13%      0.36%   
2013      34.68%     14.22%    48.90%     19.20%     21.86%     9.68%      0.36%   
2014      33.11%     13.71%    46.82%     22.72%     18.40%   11.37%      0.49%          0.20%
2016      35.91%     13.52%    49.44%     26.46%     11.55%   10.74%      0.65%          1.16%
2017      33.28%     12.51%    45.79%     38.93%       6.63%     7.90%      0.52%          0.22%
2019      35.37%     13.05%    48.43%     29.74%       9.80%     8.95%      2.38%          0.70%
2021      34.66%     12.40%    47.05%     30.10%     14.03%     7.25%       1.44%         0.12%

Third Pole clearly continues its resurgence from the low of 2017.  The chart underestimates third pole  in 2017 anyway as HP was really a 2/3 Center-Left party and 1/3 Third Pole party.

[jaichind]

CDP will be in disarray from this unexpected setback.  Edano will most likely have to go.  Not clear if the CDP can come up with a coherent strategy for the 2022 Upper House election.  The CDP will have to rely on Kishida messing up for 2022 to turn out well from them.

[jaichind]

LDP unexpectedly flipped 22 2017 Opposition seats.

北海道(Hokkaido) 3rd - 2017 CDP winner retired and did not run
北海道(Hokkaido) 6th - 2017 CDP winner retired and did not run
岩手(Iwate) 3rd - 2017 pro-Opposition independent winner ran as CDP (Ozawa)
茨城(Ibaraki) 7th - 2017 LDP rebel ran as CDP
神奈川(Kanagawa) 6th - CDP incumbent lost by 2%
山梨(Yamanashi) - 2017 pro-Opposition independent winner ran as CDP
東京(Tokyo) 1st - 2017 CDP winner lost by over 3%; strong JRP showing must have played a role
東京(Tokyo) 21st - 2017 HP winner defect to LDP and ran in another district
新潟(Niigata) 2nd - 2017 pro-Opposition indpendent winner ran as CDP
新潟(Niigata) 3nd - 2017 pro-Opposition indpendent winner ran as CDP
長野(Nagano) 1st - 2017 pro-Opposition indpendent winner ran as CDP
長野(Nagano) 3rd - 2017 HP winner defected to LDP and won as LDP
静岡(Shizuoka) 5th - 2017 HP winner defected to LDP and won as LDP rebel defeating both CDP and official LDP candidate
静岡(Shizuoka) 6th - 2017 HP winner ran as CDP and lost
愛知(Aichi) 5th - 2017 CDP winner retired and did not run
愛知(Aichi) 7th - 2017 pro-Opposition independent winner retired and did not run
愛知(Aichi) 11th - 2017 HP winner retired and did not run
三重(Mie) 2nd - 2017 CDP winner lost by 0.4%
愛媛(Ehime) 3rd - 2017 HP winner ran as CDP
高知(Kōchi) 2nd - 2017 pro-Opposition indpendent winner ran as CDP
鹿児島(Kagoshima) - 2017 CDP winner lost by over 7% I guess the LDP lean of district caught up to him
沖縄(Okinawa) - 2017 pro-Opposition indpendent winner ran as CDP

Note most of these flips are either the incumbent not running or defecting to LDP or the 2017 winner won not on the CDP party label but now lost with the CDP ticket.

I think the LDP was able to "nationalize" the race in these seats by painting CDP as a proxy for JCP.

[jaichind]

As the different PR zones finish up counting I noticed that for each one all the votes came in put NHK would report the zone as 99%.  Then both CDP and DPP would each receive a few thousand extra votes and then the zone is marked as completely counted.

It is clear what is taking place.  A bunch of people voted for 民主 on the PR ballot mostly out of muscle memory of voting DPJ all those years.   All these votes would be allocated to CDP and DPP on a pro-rated basis.  The last delay must be to count all votes to get the ratio of CDP and DPP votes before these votes can be allocated.

[jaichind]

NHK chart on results.

Note that NHK already allocated the two pro-LDP independents to the LDP since they were retroactively nominated by the LDP right after they won.

[jaichind]

The D'hondt method is merciless on the 5th largest party in seat allocation given threshold effects in the smaller PR zones.

In 2017 that party was the JRP.  This year it is the JCP.  JCP PR vote went from 7.9% to 7.3% but more critically its seat count went from 11 to 9 as the 5th place party.
 
In 2017 and 2021 JRP and JCP were both strong enough in Kinki to be well into getting seats.  In 2017 JCP pushed JRP out of contention in the rest of the PR zone by being the 4th party and relegating JRP as the 5th party.  As a result, JRP could only win 2 PR seats outside Kinki.  In 2021 the roles were reversed.  Despite JCP vote share being similar to 2017, the JRP surge pushed JCP into 5th place and pushed it out of getting seats on a couple of zones.

                            2017       2021
Kinki JRP                 5            10
Kinki JCP                 2              2
Non-Kinki JRP          2            15
Non-Kinki JCP          7              5

[jaichind]

In terms of LDP performance on PR zones for the PR vote relative to 2017

北海道(Hokkaido) - LDP gained due to NPD not running this time
東北(Tohoku) - Significant LDP gain in this mostly rural area
北関東(North Kanto), 南関東(South Kanto), 東京(Tokyo) - Stagnant
北陸信越(Shin'etsu) - Significant LDP gain in this mostly rural area
東海(Tōkai) - Very large LDP gain in this area of high Rengo influence
近畿(Kinki) - Significant LDP losses to JRP
中国(Chūgoku) - Significant LDP gain due to Kishida effect
四国(Shikoku), 九州(Kyushu) - Stagant

Mostly fit my narrative of
a) LDP gaining ground on rural areas but losing ground in urban areas with Kinki being very bad due to JRP
b) 東海(Tōkai) gains due to Rengo-JCP conflict
c) Losing ground in the Deep South even though they are rural due to some discontent against the local LDP

[jaichind]

How independents voted on PR slate in 2012 2014 2017 2021 exit polls (Ashai)

               2017     2021
LDP           21        19
KP              7          7
JRP             9        19
HP/DPP     20          8
CDP          29        21
RS                         7
JCP            8           8

A shift from CDP and HP/DPP toward RS and JRP.

[jaichind]

Exit poll party support by age 2017 to 2021

LDP is the party of the youth
JRP is the party of the middle aged
CDP is the party of the elderly

[jaichind]

Asahi exit poll on PR vote by age

LDP is strongest with 10s and 20s.  
CDP and JCP are strongest with the 60s and 70s
JRP is strongest with the 30s 40s and 50s

[jaichind]

There is a Chinese saying 人怕出名豬怕壯 or "People fear getting famous, pigs fear getting fat".  This seems to be the case for the new LDP General Secretary 甘利明(Amari Akira). 

He was involved in a bribery scandal in 2016 which resulted in him having to resign from the cabinet. By 2017 this was forgotten and he was able to win his 神奈川(Kanagawa) 13th district with ease.  He was and is close to both Abe and Suga and Kishida decided to make him LDP General Secretary to curry favor with both Abe and Suga.   But doing so merely made his bribery scandal back in 2016 show up on the national media again and seems to have impacted his standing in his district.  With recent polling showing his lead dropping to a level to make his seat competitive he is canceling all campaign events for other candidates and rushing to campaign in his district.

Most likely he will still win but here is an example of him becoming a national figure actually hurting his campaign.

This proved prophetic.

甘利明(Amari Akira) has resigned as LDP Secretary General.  It was expected that he would resign because LDP would lose a bunch of seats but he will win his.  It ended up being the other way around and he still had to resign.

[xelas81]

Is their any exit polls breakdown by gender or income/occupation?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There is a Chinese saying 人怕出名豬怕壯 or "People fear getting famous, pigs fear getting fat".  This seems to be the case for the new LDP General Secretary 甘利明(Amari Akira). 

He was involved in a bribery scandal in 2016 which resulted in him having to resign from the cabinet. By 2017 this was forgotten and he was able to win his 神奈川(Kanagawa) 13th district with ease.  He was and is close to both Abe and Suga and Kishida decided to make him LDP General Secretary to curry favor with both Abe and Suga.   But doing so merely made his bribery scandal back in 2016 show up on the national media again and seems to have impacted his standing in his district.  With recent polling showing his lead dropping to a level to make his seat competitive he is canceling all campaign events for other candidates and rushing to campaign in his district.

Most likely he will still win but here is an example of him becoming a national figure actually hurting his campaign.

This proved prophetic.

甘利明(Amari Akira) has resigned as LDP Secretary General.  It was expected that he would resign because LDP would lose a bunch of seats but he will win his.  It ended up being the other way around and he still had to resign.

Does he have any hope to return to office of significance over the course of the next few years? Or is he now in purgatory?

[jaichind]

Is their any exit polls breakdown by gender or income/occupation?

None I am aware of that are not behind a paywall.  I Will post if I see them

[jaichind]

甘利明(Amari Akira) has resigned as LDP Secretary General.  It was expected that he would resign because LDP would lose a bunch of seats but he will win his.  It ended up being the other way around and he still had to resign.

Does he have any hope to return to office of significance over the course of the next few years? Or is he now in purgatory?
[/quote]

I think he can come back in 3-4 years when most of this is out of people's memories.  Even drill Obuchi made a comeback in the Kishida cabinet after being forced out of the cabinet in 2014 over her campaign fiance scandals.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Asahi exit poll on PR vote by age

LDP is strongest with 10s and 20s. 
CDP and JCP are strongest with the 60s and 70s
JRP is strongest with the 30s 40s and 50s

Margins between ruling party and opposition in each demographic, to emphasize the differences between the two main blocs:
10代: +20
20代: +17
30代: +11
40代: +5
50代: +4
60代: -2
70代: +2
60代 is the only demographic to give a plurality to a block other than the governing party.

[jaichind]

The swing in 高知(Kōchi) 2nd seems massive.

In 2017 an old DPJ Upper House MP who lost his seat in the 2016 Upper House elections ran as a pro-Opposition independent and won

2017
pro-Opposition Ind    56.5%
LDP incumbent         43.5%

This time around the pro-opposition independent joined CDP and the LDP ran an ex-governor of the prefecture. Many including myself expected a neck-to-neck race but with the LDP ex-governor winning narrowly.  Instead, it is

2021
LDP                         67.2%
CDP                        31.5%
PNHK                      1.2%

This type of swing was totally unexpected and shows the image problem CDP has here with its alliance with JCP as well as how popular the ex-governor is here.

[jaichind]

Edano refuses to step down as CDP leader.   This is not a good look for him or CDP. 

[Logical]

There is a Chinese saying 人怕出名豬怕壯 or "People fear getting famous, pigs fear getting fat".  This seems to be the case for the new LDP General Secretary 甘利明(Amari Akira). 

He was involved in a bribery scandal in 2016 which resulted in him having to resign from the cabinet. By 2017 this was forgotten and he was able to win his 神奈川(Kanagawa) 13th district with ease.  He was and is close to both Abe and Suga and Kishida decided to make him LDP General Secretary to curry favor with both Abe and Suga.   But doing so merely made his bribery scandal back in 2016 show up on the national media again and seems to have impacted his standing in his district.  With recent polling showing his lead dropping to a level to make his seat competitive he is canceling all campaign events for other candidates and rushing to campaign in his district.

Most likely he will still win but here is an example of him becoming a national figure actually hurting his campaign.

This proved prophetic.

甘利明(Amari Akira) has resigned as LDP Secretary General.  It was expected that he would resign because LDP would lose a bunch of seats but he will win his.  It ended up being the other way around and he still had to resign.

Does he have any hope to return to office of significance over the course of the next few years? Or is he now in purgatory?

He's 72. Most likely he'll retire next election or the one after.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There is a Chinese saying 人怕出名豬怕壯 or "People fear getting famous, pigs fear getting fat".  This seems to be the case for the new LDP General Secretary 甘利明(Amari Akira). 

He was involved in a bribery scandal in 2016 which resulted in him having to resign from the cabinet. By 2017 this was forgotten and he was able to win his 神奈川(Kanagawa) 13th district with ease.  He was and is close to both Abe and Suga and Kishida decided to make him LDP General Secretary to curry favor with both Abe and Suga.   But doing so merely made his bribery scandal back in 2016 show up on the national media again and seems to have impacted his standing in his district.  With recent polling showing his lead dropping to a level to make his seat competitive he is canceling all campaign events for other candidates and rushing to campaign in his district.

Most likely he will still win but here is an example of him becoming a national figure actually hurting his campaign.

This proved prophetic.

甘利明(Amari Akira) has resigned as LDP Secretary General.  It was expected that he would resign because LDP would lose a bunch of seats but he will win his.  It ended up being the other way around and he still had to resign.

Does he have any hope to return to office of significance over the course of the next few years? Or is he now in purgatory?

He's 72. Most likely he'll retire next election or the one after.

I was going to suggest the possibility that his son might inherit the "incumbency" in his district or whatever. But it turns out he has no children, if Japanese wikipedia is anything to go by. If he had children then they'd mention them.

[Logical]

岐阜(Gifu) 5th is also interesting but most likely not competitive in the end.  

The reason it is interesting is the CDP is running a 25-year-old woman 今井るる(Imai Ruru)
as its candidate.  It seems that out of college she has no real political experience other than being a community activist.  


In 2017 this district was

LDP    54.1
HP     34.0  (DPJ background)
JCP    11.9

It is fairly rural so it is really not a good fit for someone without deep roots in the district.  Worst both the JCP and JRP are also in the race.  In theory, the PR vote in this district is fairly positive for CDP so she does have some basis to build her vote.  Recently some poll has her closing in on the LDP incumbent but most likely he will win by a good margin.

Still, it is interesting to see the CDP try out a candidate that young.  Most likely they are playing the long game.  Given the lean of the district if she can perhaps win on the PR slate she can slowly build roots in the district and finally dethrone the LDP a couple of election cycles from now.  She has the time.

The result was

LDP 48.5
CDP 40.5
JRP  5.9
JCP  5.2

She did very well considering the circumstances. If she runs again in the next election she could even win outright or make it close enough to get in proportionally (had CDP not performed awfully in Aichi she would've made it in this time). A talent to watch for.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Is there any chance that Kishida, Ishin and the DPP use their supermajority to amend the constitution to remove constraints on the JSDF? I noticed a few polls that had Ishin supporters as being considerably more hawkish than those of other parties (they had the strongest negative view of China and were the only one with a majority in support of acquiring nuclear weapons) but I'm not sure what the DPP's position on such revisions is. Komeito is at least ostensibly pacifistic though, so presumably they wouldn't be in support.