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Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

In mid April 2020, Harvard Harris showed Biden getting 53 to Trump's 47. In mid May 2020 they also showed Biden up 53-47. Quite literally the reverse of what Harvard Harris shows now. I am not sure what's so unbelievable about Trump winning the popular vote. It's not inconceivable at this point.

While there is reason to believe Trump may actually win the popular vote, it is highly likely not because he is gaining a lot of supporters but more on Biden losing a lot to third party. I can’t picture out Trump winning the popular vote with outright majority.

As the article said, they are usually worse than public schools.

A lot of parents send their kids to private schools to get away from drugs and gangs, not so much for education reasons

There’s plenty of drugs in private schools. I’m not saying public schools are perfect, but they are better then the private schools in my area

The more evidence that corroborates Cohen's testimony, the better

https://twitter.com/JoyceWhiteVance/status/1792599717777453126

Michigan doesn't close until 8 PM, but I'd keep an eye on Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor). If Biden isn't over 70 here he's likely to lose the state (and thus the election). If there's going to be a massive movement of young college voters away from Biden due to Gaza, Washtenaw will be ground zero.

Not voting over that is truly stupid.

College protesters are willing to allow a wannabe dictator to win re-election for a country like 10,000 miles away. When Trump sends in the national guard to American cities and campuses (which he said he wants to do) I wonder who they'll blame.

Trump would win Duval county and that would be the Florida map in November. As for the margins, the 3rd party vote could be around 5-8%, who knows?

Joe Manchin just barely got reelected in 2018 against a flawed opponent and in a good environment and his vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh was extremely controversial. Now with some time having passed, is it fair to say that he would have lost otherwise? What if he voted against the nomination like all other Democrats?

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

In mid April 2020, Harvard Harris showed Biden getting 53 to Trump's 47. In mid May 2020 they also showed Biden up 53-47. Quite literally the reverse of what Harvard Harris shows now. I am not sure what's so unbelievable about Trump winning the popular vote. It's not inconceivable at this point.

@iceman & @EastwoodS
Realistic or not?

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

This seems like a normal result when by a 2 to 1 margin voters think the economy is getting worse.

Long time since I've updated this forum. I've added Redistricter UK for commercial subscribers and I’ve added 2024 GOP and Democratic presidential primary data in:
- Arkansas
- Nebraska
- North Carolina
- Tennessee
- Oklahoma
- Washington